General Market News

Wall Street futures held steady Monday as stalled Iran peace talks and Strait of Hormuz shipping incidents pushed oil prices higher, coinciding with a critical week featuring Federal Reserve policy decision and earnings from five Magnificent Seven tech companies. Donald Trump canceled in-person ceasefire negotiations while Iran's Revolutionary Guard boarded two container ships near the strategic oil transit point. The confluence of geopolitical tensions and major market events has investors cautious ahead of what may be Jerome Powell's final Fed meeting as chair before Kevin Warsh takes over in May.

• The Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil flows, saw Iranian forces board two container ships, though Iran later submitted a proposal for reopening the strait
• Five of the Magnificent Seven technology companies report earnings this week alongside Wednesday's Fed policy decision
• Jerome Powell may chair his last Fed meeting before Kevin Warsh assumes leadership in May, following the Justice Department dropping its criminal probe into Powell

Oruka Therapeutics announced that its experimental monoclonal antibody ORKA-001 met the primary endpoint of a mid-stage clinical trial for psoriasis, achieving complete skin clearance in a significant portion of patients within 16 weeks. The drug works by blocking a protein in the immune system that drives inflammation in psoriasis, a chronic skin condition causing itchy, scaly rashes.

• ORKA-001 achieved complete skin clearance in 40 out of 63 patients (63.5%) by week 16 in the interim mid-stage study results
• The drug targets psoriasis by blocking a specific protein in the immune system responsible for driving inflammation in the chronic skin disease
• The positive trial results caused Oruka's stock to rise, though the article does not specify the magnitude of the increase

The eight heirs of late Luxottica founder Leonardo Del Vecchio have approved a proposal for one heir to buy out two siblings in a 10 billion euro ($11.7 billion) deal. The transaction will consolidate control of the family holding company Delfin, which owns 32.4% of EssilorLuxottica and significant stakes in major Italian financial institutions. Leonardo Maria Del Vecchio will become Delfin's largest single shareholder, potentially simplifying future decision-making.

• Six of eight heirs approved Leonardo Maria Del Vecchio's bank-financed buyout of siblings Paola and Luca, giving him more than the 12.5% stake each heir currently holds
• Delfin controls major assets including 32.4% of Franco-Italian eyewear group EssilorLuxottica, 10% of insurer Generali, and 17.5% of bank Monte dei Paschi
• Seven heirs also voted to approve distributing 80% of Delfin's profits as dividends over the 2025-2027 period

A Supreme Court case on Monday and a farm bill in Congress are testing the alliance between Trump, congressional Republicans, and the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) movement over glyphosate, a controversial weedkiller. The Trump administration is supporting Bayer in arguing that federal law should preempt state lawsuits claiming glyphosate causes cancer, putting it at odds with MAHA advocates who oppose the chemical. With midterm elections seven months away and Trump's approval ratings declining, maintaining this coalition could be critical for Republican congressional majorities.

• The Supreme Court will hear arguments on whether federal law preempts state lawsuits over Roundup's alleged cancer risks, with the Trump administration filing an amicus brief supporting Bayer and arguing against a 'patchwork of 50 different labeling requirements.'
• The House farm bill includes provisions MAHA advocates call a 'liability shield' that would prohibit states from requiring pesticide labeling beyond EPA-approved standards, sparking backlash from the movement that helped deliver Trump to the White House.
• MAHA advocates warn they may sit out the 2026 midterms rather than vote for Republicans if the administration continues supporting glyphosate, creating an opportunity for Democrats to court these previously non-political voters on health issues.

HawkEye 360, a Virginia-based space analytics company, is targeting a valuation of up to $2.42 billion in its U.S. initial public offering. The company aims to raise up to $416 million by offering 16 million shares on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol 'HAWK'. The IPO follows SpaceX's confidential filing earlier this month, which has boosted confidence among space-technology firms to pursue public listings.

• HawkEye 360 is seeking to raise up to $416 million through the offering of 16 million shares
• The IPO comes amid renewed momentum in the IPO market, particularly after SpaceX's confidential filing for a U.S. IPO earlier in April
• Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, RBC Capital Markets, and Jefferies are serving as underwriters for the offering

Canada-based Triton Uranium is considering a U.S. listing via SPAC merger in 2026 to capitalize on rising nuclear fuel demand driven by data centers and AI infrastructure. The company has raised nearly $16 million for its Atlas Project in Saskatchewan and may sell a future stake to the U.S. or Canadian government. This comes as uranium supply remains constrained, with U.S. production expected at only 1 million pounds this year versus over 50 million pounds in annual consumption.

• Triton controls 46,742 acres of mineral claims at its Atlas Project and will launch a 10,000-meter drill program starting in June across four priority targets
• U.S. uranium production is expected to reach only 1 million pounds in 2026, representing just 2% of the country's annual consumption of over 50 million pounds
• Renewed investor interest in nuclear is evidenced by X-Energy's recent $1.02 billion IPO and first Canadian uranium mine approvals since 2004 for Denison Mines and NexGen Energy projects

Czech defence group CSG announced it will establish a joint venture in Azerbaijan to service armoured vehicles and land-based military equipment. The programme covers hundreds of units valued at 'hundreds of millions of euros' and represents a long-term investment of at least 10 years.

• The joint venture, named VEXA DS, will be formed between CSG's Excalibur Army Azerbaijani subsidiary and an unnamed local partner
• Project includes construction of a repair facility with ambitions to become a significant regional player in military equipment servicing
• Partnership focuses on industrial cooperation, know-how transfer, and development of local capacities in Azerbaijan

British retail sales plunged to their lowest level since records began in 1983, with the CBI's April sales volume measure falling to -68 from -52 in March. The sharp decline was driven by households' inflation fears stemming from the Iran war, while expectations for May also reached their darkest outlook since the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2021.

• The CBI retail sales volume measure dropped to -68 in April, marking the sharpest year-on-year decline in over 40 years of data collection
• May outlook deteriorated to -60 from -49, representing the gloomiest expectations since March 2021 during the pandemic
• The CBI urged government action to ease business costs, including halting employee rights legislation that could increase employer expenses, reducing property taxes, and lowering electricity bills

U.S. stock futures declined Monday as stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks pushed oil prices up nearly 3%, raising inflation concerns. Dow futures fell 0.14% (70 points) while S&P 500 futures dipped 0.1% ahead of a busy week of corporate earnings and Federal Reserve commentary. The market faces pressure from geopolitical risks, rising Treasury yields, and supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz affecting 10-13 million barrels per day.

• Oil surged to $108/barrel (Brent) and $97/barrel (WTI) on Strait of Hormuz supply disruptions, intensifying inflation fears as markets await Fed signals on monetary policy
• China blocked Meta's approximately $2 billion Manus AI acquisition over national security concerns, adding regulatory friction to Meta's AI expansion strategy
• Global markets showed divergence with Japan's Nikkei 225 hitting record highs while Hong Kong's Hang Seng lagged on domestic concerns; European markets remained largely flat

Financial analyst Ken Fisher argues that tariffs pose less economic danger than feared due to four mitigating factors: expectations, exemptions, evasion, and enforceability. While US stocks lagged in 2025 partly due to tariffs, global trade still grew 3.4% and markets rebounded as investors recognized the limited real-world impact. Fisher advises investors to move past tariff concerns as they are already priced into markets.

• Actual 2025 US tariff rates averaged less than 10% of import prices, far below the World Bank's initial 28% estimate, and dropped to about 8% after February's court ruling
• Over half of US imports remained duty-free before recent rulings, with major exemptions for smartphones, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and other key goods
• Trade evasion through 'transshipping' was widespread, with US imports from ASEAN nations jumping 29% in 2025 while China's exports to those countries simultaneously boomed
• Enforcement remains minimal with only 2,500 CBP tariff employees conducting just 465 audits for over 50 million inbound shipments in fiscal 2025

CATL, the world's largest electric vehicle battery manufacturer, has launched an accelerated bookbuild to raise approximately $5 billion through a primary H-share offering in Hong Kong. The Chinese battery giant will use the proceeds for global capacity expansion, zero-carbon business development, research and development, and general working capital.

• CATL is offering new H-shares through an accelerated bookbuild process in Hong Kong to raise about $5 billion
• Proceeds will fund global capacity expansion, zero-carbon business footprint development, R&D, and working capital
• The offering comes from the world's largest battery manufacturer as it seeks to strengthen its position in the EV supply chain

Rep. Ted Lieu introduced a bipartisan AI bill that would impose stricter penalties for distributing deepfake images, protect AI whistleblowers, and help establish technical standards for AI software. The legislation, backed by Republican Rep. Jay Obernolte, builds on recommendations from the House AI Task Force and aims to address less controversial aspects of AI regulation.

• The bill includes whistleblower protections for those reporting AI safety risks or violations and establishes a prize competition for groundbreaking AI research
• The measure requires U.S. participation in international organizations developing technical AI standards and creates penalties for non-consensual deepfake distribution
• The legislation intentionally avoids contentious issues like federal preemption of state AI laws and testing requirements for AI systems in critical infrastructure

Two tankers carrying Russian ultra-low sulphur diesel were diverted mid-voyage from Brazil to alternative destinations after traders switched cargo buyers to capitalize on a global price spike driven by the Iran conflict. The unusual mid-voyage rerouting signals widening regional diesel price gaps, as sellers seek higher-margin deliveries in different markets.

• The Flora 1 (37,000 metric tons loaded March 31) is now heading toward the Suez Canal, while the Aurora (37,000 tons loaded March 22) executed a U-turn in the Atlantic toward the Strait of Gibraltar
• Russia has become Brazil's dominant diesel supplier since March 2023, with April shipments potentially exceeding 800,000 tons, after displacing U.S. volumes following the EU ban on Russian oil products
• Two additional tankers carrying 106,000 tons combined were stalled and drifting en route to Brazil, while six of Petrobras' 11 refineries operate at reduced capacity amid Iran conflict-driven price increases

China's National Development and Reform Commission has blocked a foreign acquisition of Chinese AI startup Manus, ordering all involved parties to cancel the transaction. This action reflects China's increasing regulatory scrutiny over foreign investment in sensitive technology sectors, particularly artificial intelligence.

• The state planner issued a prohibition on the acquisition and mandated cancellation of the deal
• The decision targets Manus, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup, preventing its sale to foreign investors
• This move aligns with China's broader strategy to protect domestic AI capabilities and prevent technology transfer to foreign entities

Global military spending reached a record $2.89 trillion in 2025, driven primarily by a 14% surge in European defense expenditure to $864 billion as NATO members increased budgets to meet alliance targets. The growth marked the 11th consecutive year of increases, though the overall rate slowed to 2.9% due to a 7.5% decline in U.S. spending after halting Ukraine aid.

• Germany's defense spending jumped 24% to $114 billion, exceeding NATO's 2% GDP target for the first time since 1990, while Spain's expenditure soared 50% to cross the 2% threshold for the first time since the target was established in 1994
• Asia-Pacific spending rose 8.1% to $681 billion, the largest annual increase since 2009, with Taiwan spending up 14% to $18.2 billion amid 5,709 Chinese aircraft incursions in 2025 (versus 380 in 2020)
• Defense stocks rallied globally, with South Korea's Hanwha Aerospace up 193%, Germany's Rheinmetall gaining 154%, and Japan's IHI Corp climbing 107% as governments expanded military budgets and signed major procurement deals

Northeast Asian refiners are increasing diesel and jet fuel exports in May after conflict-related disruptions cut regional oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. South Korean and Taiwanese refiners have sold over 10 diesel cargoes and at least 5 jet fuel cargoes for May loading, double April's volume, though still below pre-conflict levels. The increased supply has eased record-high spot premiums and refining margins, though both remain significantly elevated compared to pre-war levels.

• South Korean refiners sold more than 10 diesel cargoes for May (each ~300,000 barrels), over twice April's volume but still below the pre-conflict level of 25+ cargoes
• Refining margins hit record highs of ~$60/barrel this month; diesel margins stood at $62/barrel (down from $86 peak on March 30 but triple end-February levels)
• Cash premiums have declined significantly from peaks—diesel premiums fell from $10+ to below $5/barrel, and jet fuel premiums dropped from $40+ to ~$18/barrel, but remain more than double pre-war levels

Countries with higher renewable energy output, such as Albania and France, have been better protected from electricity price spikes following the U.S.-Israel attack on Iran on February 28, while gas-dependent nations like Italy and Germany face sharper wholesale price increases. The crisis highlights how reliance on renewables can shield economies from energy price volatility, potentially accelerating Europe's green transition. Businesses and households in gas-dependent countries face mounting financial pressure as higher costs trickle through the system.

• Italy's wholesale electricity prices rose over 20% and Germany's over 15% since the war began, while France (70% nuclear) saw less than half Italy's increase and Spain (nearly 60% renewables) saw prices fall
• Albania generates over 90% of electricity from hydropower, helping keep wholesale prices in check, though the government still faces mounting pressure on public finances from subsidies and peak-demand imports
• Gas-dependent countries face the 'duck curve' challenge where solar power creates price spikes in early morning and late afternoon, requiring major investments in renewables and long-term storage to offset gas reliance

Agentic commerce, where AI agents autonomously execute purchases on behalf of consumers, is forcing the payments industry to modernize card infrastructure. Nearly half of consumers are interested in AI handling tasks like grocery shopping, but existing payment systems built for human-initiated transactions struggle with the high-velocity, machine-driven activity. Legacy fraud detection and authorization systems are inadequate for machine-speed transactions, creating security and scalability gaps.

• Traditional card infrastructure lacks flexibility to process parallel transactions, enforce granular controls, or adapt in real time to AI-driven purchasing patterns
• Fraud detection models based on human behavior patterns are increasingly ineffective against machine-speed attacks, creating authorization and compliance risks
• New payment platforms using real-time decisioning, tokenization, and cloud-based architectures are emerging to enable secure, scalable autonomous transactions

Maverick Payments argues that simply accumulating data no longer provides a competitive advantage; companies must use data intentionally to create value and build trust. Justin Downey, VP of Product at Maverick, emphasizes that AI helps compress decision-making timelines in areas like underwriting and fraud detection, but requires human oversight and governance. The focus is shifting from data abundance to embedding data-driven insights into workflows and strategic decision-making.

• AI enables faster processing of data for underwriting and fraud detection, with the biggest efficiency gains occurring before the first customer transaction by eliminating redundant steps while maintaining smart friction where needed
• Fraudsters are increasingly using AI themselves, requiring companies to adopt AI-powered defensive systems or risk falling behind in fraud prevention capabilities
• Responsible AI deployment requires governance and human oversight rather than full automation, with AI surfacing patterns to help experts focus on strategic questions while informing 1-3 year product roadmaps

French state-owned utility EDF will invest nearly 100 million euros ($117.33 million) in a new factory operated by its subsidiary Arabelle Solutions to manufacture heat exchangers for nuclear reactor projects. The factory in eastern France is expected to begin production in 2030, supporting EDF's plans to build multiple new reactors over the coming decades to replace France's aging nuclear fleet.

• The new factory in Saone-et-Loire will produce heat exchangers for future nuclear reactors, with first equipment manufacturing planned from 2030
• EDF plans to develop over a dozen new reactors in the coming decades, with the first expected to enter service in the late 2030s, plus an additional eight reactors to replace aging infrastructure
• EDF aims to develop a pan-European supply chain and build reactors in series to avoid the delays and cost overruns that have plagued recent projects