How US investors should think about tariffs as Trump braces for a fresh round of haggling

• Actual 2025 US tariff rates averaged less than 10% of import prices, far below the World Bank's initial 28% estimate, and dropped to about 8% after February's court ruling
• Over half of US imports remained duty-free before recent rulings, with major exemptions for smartphones, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, and other key goods
• Trade evasion through 'transshipping' was widespread, with US imports from ASEAN nations jumping 29% in 2025 while China's exports to those countries simultaneously boomed
• Enforcement remains minimal with only 2,500 CBP tariff employees conducting just 465 audits for over 50 million inbound shipments in fiscal 2025

Summary: Tariffs' Bark Worse Than Bite for Investors

Financial analyst Ken Fisher argues that Trump-era tariffs pose minimal long-term threats to markets despite ongoing volatility, citing the "four e's" framework: expectations, exemptions, evasion, and enforceability.

Key Data Points:

• US stocks lagged global markets in 2025 due partly to tariff concerns
• Global trade grew 3.4% in 2025; Chinese exports rose 5.5% despite U.S.-bound shipments plunging
• Over half of US imports remained duty-free before recent Supreme Court rulings
• US imports from ASEAN nations jumped 29% in 2025, indicating widespread transshipping
• World Bank initially estimated US tariff rates at 28% (April 2025), later revised to 17% (January), with actual rates around 10%
• Post-February court ruling, effective tariff rate dropped to approximately 8%
• Trump's proposed 15% global tariff would push rates back to 10%
• CBP conducted only 465 audits for over 50 million inbound shipments in fiscal 2025

Market Implications:

Fisher contends tariffs are already priced into markets following initial shock in April 2025. Widespread exemptions (smartphones, semiconductors, pharmaceuticals, various commodities) limit actual impact. Extensive evasion through transshipping and enforcement constraints—only 2,500 CBP tariff employees monitoring hundreds of entry points—further minimize effectiveness.

Outlook:

New trade deals with Taiwan, China, Japan, UK, India, and others demonstrate Trump's preference for negotiation over enforcement. The EU, UK, and India have also struck independent agreements. Fisher concludes the feared severe tariff impact won't materialize, advising investors to move past tariff concerns as markets already have.