General Market News

Global emissions trading systems (ETS) generated a record $79 billion in revenue in 2025, up from $70 billion in 2024, driven by higher average carbon prices. These cap-and-trade systems now cover 26% of global greenhouse gas emissions across 41 jurisdictions worldwide. The growth reflects expanding adoption of carbon pricing mechanisms as countries pursue climate targets.

• The European Union's ETS accounted for the majority of revenues at $48.9 billion in 2025
• 41 emissions trading systems are currently operational, including 16 national programs in countries like Australia, China, Mexico, and the UK
• Three new national systems (Japan, India, and Vietnam) are launching in 2026, with 16 additional systems under development globally

Citadel CEO Ken Griffin warned that a prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global recession within 6-12 months due to disrupted energy flows from the Middle East. His comments come six weeks after U.S. strikes on Iran, which Griffin suggested were necessary despite current tensions. The billionaire investor emphasized that uninterrupted energy product flow is critical to preventing worldwide economic downturn.

• Griffin stated that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed 'for all intents and purposes' for 6-12 months, the world will enter recession
• He noted the Iranian military remains 'very much intact' despite U.S. air strikes destroying 'every single target you can strike from the sky'
• Griffin defended Trump's decision to strike Iran, arguing delays of several years would have been 'far more dire' given developments in Iranian missile technology

Small business optimism in the U.S. fell below its 52-year average for the first time in a year, as the NFIB Optimism Index dropped 3.0 points to 95.8 in March 2026. The decline was driven by a dramatic spike in oil prices stemming from the Iran war, which offset positive effects from recent small business tax cuts.

• The decline was led by an 11-point drop in positive profit trends and a 7-point decrease in owners expecting better business conditions
• NFIB's Uncertainty Index rose 4 points to 92, remaining well above its historical average of 68
• Small business owners are absorbing higher input costs from oil price spikes and passing them to customers, while supply chain disruptions continue

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed confidence that core inflation will continue declining despite the Iran war and reiterated his call for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Bessent stated the Trump administration wants Kevin Warsh, Trump's Fed chair nominee, to lead the next monetary policy cycle and emphasized urgency in getting Warsh confirmed before current Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May.

• Bessent acknowledged the Fed may want to observe economic developments related to the Iran war before cutting rates
• The administration is pushing for Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair when Powell's term expires in May
• Treasury Secretary believes Warsh should lead the next cycle of monetary adjustments despite ongoing geopolitical tensions

Citadel CEO Ken Griffin warned that a global recession is unavoidable if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for six to 12 months amid ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. Oil prices have surged to around $100 per barrel, up from below $70 before the war, threatening Asian economies particularly. Griffin predicts the crisis will accelerate a shift toward alternative energy sources including wind, solar, and nuclear power.

• Oil prices currently around $100 per barrel, significantly higher than pre-war levels of just below $70, creating vulnerability for global economies especially in Asia
• Griffin believes delayed U.S. military action would have resulted in worse consequences as Iran's military capabilities continued to grow
• Stock markets have rebounded to pre-conflict levels, but investors remain concerned that escalation risks are not adequately priced into current valuations

U.S. stock futures rose on April 14, 2026, led by tech stocks after Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in below expectations, easing inflation concerns. The positive sentiment was driven by gains in AI, cloud, and semiconductor stocks, though major banks declined after disappointing guidance despite beating earnings expectations.

• Soft PPI data eased inflation fears that had been elevated due to Middle East conflict pushing oil prices higher, triggering broad market gains
• Tech sector led the rally with Oracle extending gains, Credo Technology surging on acquisition news, and Bitcoin rising above $74,000 supporting crypto-linked stocks
• JP Morgan and Wells Fargo sold off despite beating earnings due to weak forward guidance, creating a headwind for financials heading into earnings season

The IMF warned that the UK will experience the largest growth decline among G7 economies in 2026 due to the Iran war, with projected growth falling to just 0.8% from 1.3% in 2025. This represents the steepest cut among rich nations as the global economy faces new pressures from Middle East conflict following recent trade and tariff disruptions.

• UK's 2026 growth forecast of 0.8% is the lowest among G7 nations, trailing the US (2.3%), Spain (2.1%), euro area (1.1%), and France (0.9%)
• The IMF cautioned that a protracted conflict could further worsen the economic outlook, compounded by growing public debt and eroding institutional credibility
• The fund emphasized that 'fostering adaptability, maintaining credible policy frameworks, and reinforcing international cooperation' are essential to navigate the current shock

Oil prices fell over 3% on Tuesday as markets responded positively to prospects of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks aimed at resolving tensions over Iran's nuclear program and the Strait of Hormuz crisis. U.S. crude dropped from over $105 to $95.90 per barrel amid reports of potential negotiations, though Saudi Arabia and China have criticized the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports that began Monday.

• U.S. oil futures fell 3.2% to $95.90 per barrel, with futures contracts for later months showing expectations of below $90 in July and below $80 in October, suggesting markets anticipate short-term disruption
• The New York Times reported the U.S. proposed a 20-year suspension of all Iranian nuclear activity while Iran countered with a five-year proposal, with high-level Israel-Lebanon talks also scheduled for Wednesday
• China, which receives 80-90% of Iranian oil exports, called the U.S. blockade 'dangerous and irresponsible' while Saudi Arabia pressed the U.S. to drop it, citing risks of retaliation at the Bab al-Mandeb chokepoint

U.S. stock markets opened higher on Tuesday as diplomatic hopes between the U.S. and Iran eased geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The S&P 500 rose 0.39% and Nasdaq-100 climbed 0.76%, supported by softer-than-expected wholesale inflation data and a mixed corporate earnings season. Investors are balancing geopolitical risks with improving earnings visibility and moderating inflation pressures.

• Renewed U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks expected in Pakistan lifted investor sentiment, with the Nasdaq-100 extending its winning streak to nine days, the longest since September 2025.
• Wholesale inflation (PPI) came in softer than expected, easing concerns about persistent price pressures ahead of anticipated Federal Reserve commentary.
• Earnings reactions were mixed: BlackRock rose 2.9% on strong results, JPMorgan and Wells Fargo declined despite beats due to lowered net interest income guidance, while Oracle surged nearly 6.5% and Globalstar jumped 8.6% on an $11.57 billion Amazon acquisition deal.

U.S. stock futures edged higher Tuesday as investors monitored ongoing negotiations to end the Iran war, which has disrupted global oil markets and fueled inflation. Major banks including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup reported first-quarter earnings, while wholesale inflation data is expected to reflect the war's impact on prices.

• Oil futures fell 2% to $97/barrel despite a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports, as the IEA forecast a 1.5 million barrel-per-day demand decline in Q2, the largest drop since COVID-19
• The March Producer Price Index is expected to show wholesale inflation rose 1.1% versus 0.7% in February, driven by soaring fuel prices from the Iran conflict
• United Airlines CEO reportedly proposed acquiring American Airlines to Trump administration officials, which would create a $100+ billion airline surpassing current leader Delta's $63 billion in revenue

U.S. producer prices rose 0.5% in March, below the 1.1% forecast, as steady service costs offset surging energy prices driven by the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. The year-over-year PPI increased to 4.0% from 3.4% in February, with further increases expected as oil prices have jumped over 35% since late February and recently exceeded $100 per barrel.

• March PPI increase of 0.5% came in significantly below the 1.1% economist forecast, with February's reading revised down from 0.7% to 0.5%
• Oil prices have surged more than 35% since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began in late February, crossing $100 per barrel after the U.S. announced a blockade of Iranian ports
• Core PCE inflation (excluding food and energy) is estimated to have risen 0.2% in March with a year-over-year increase of 3.1%, remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target

U.S. wholesale prices rose 0.5% in March, significantly below the 1.1% forecast, despite concerns that the Iran war's impact on energy prices would fuel inflation. Core PPI, excluding food and energy, increased only 0.1% versus expectations of 0.5%, suggesting underlying inflation pressures remain subdued.

• Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.5% in March, less than half the 1.1% Dow Jones consensus estimate
• Core PPI increased just 0.1%, well below the 0.5% forecast, indicating limited inflation spread beyond energy
• Results came amid concerns that the Iran war and elevated energy prices would trigger renewed inflation pressures

US stock futures are mixed as investors monitor US-Iran diplomatic talks and await key bank earnings reports. The Dow is set to open flat while tech-heavy Nasdaq futures rise, following Monday's rally that pushed major indices back above pre-conflict levels. Oil prices have softened amid geopolitical uncertainty and the largest supply disruption on record.

• Global oil supply fell by 10.1 million barrels per day in March, marking the largest disruption on record according to the International Energy Agency, with WTI crude trading at $97.71 per barrel, down 1.4%
• Major banks report earnings today including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup, with Wells Fargo down 2.1% premarket after a revenue miss and disclosure of $36.2 billion exposure to private credit firms
• Vice President JD Vance stated 'the ball is in the Iranian court' on resumed talks, while markets assess ongoing geopolitical risks after talks broke down over the weekend

Federal Reserve Chair nominee Kevin Warsh has disclosed wealth of approximately $131 million to $209 million, plus hundreds of millions in additional assets held by his wife, Jane Lauder. If confirmed, Warsh would be the wealthiest Fed chair in recent decades, significantly exceeding current Chair Jerome Powell's estimated $19 million to $75 million in assets.

• Warsh's disclosed holdings are at least $100 million and likely underestimated, with multiple assets listed as exceeding $50 million with no upper limit
• Current Fed Chair Jerome Powell, previously considered the wealthiest Fed chair in history at his 2018 confirmation, has significantly less wealth than Warsh
• Warsh's wife, Jane Lauder, holds hundreds of millions in additional assets beyond his personal holdings

First-quarter earnings season begins with S&P 500 profits expected to grow 12.6% overall, led by the technology sector with 45% growth. Five S&P 500 companies stand out with notable earnings expectations despite volatility from the Iran conflict affecting energy and shipping costs. Analysts highlight strong growth prospects in semiconductors, steel, and optical technology stocks.

• Technology sector leads with 45% profit growth, driven by semiconductors and chip equipment (95% increase); Lumentum Holdings expected to grow EPS 297.3% to $2.26 and Teradyne by 173.7% to $2.08
• Steel companies Nucor (expected $2.82 EPS) and Steel Dynamics ($2.83 EPS) are insulated from Iran conflict impacts due to tariffs and federally supported construction demand
• Energy sector faces minimal -0.1% earnings decline but high volatility as Iran conflict disrupts tanker access through Strait of Hormuz; Valero Energy expected to earn $3.20 per share

UK stocks rebounded on Tuesday, with the FTSE 100 rising 0.1% and the FTSE 250 climbing 1.13%, driven by optimism over potential US-Iran diplomatic talks despite an ongoing US blockade of Iranian ports. Oil prices fell below $100 a barrel, benefiting travel and leisure stocks while pressuring energy companies.

• Banks and mining stocks led gains, with precious metal miners up 2.6% tracking higher gold and silver prices, while industrial metal miners added 1.5% as copper hit a one-month high
• Travel and leisure stocks rose 1.8% on lower oil prices, with EasyJet up 2.5% and Wizz Air surging 7.5%, while energy stocks like Shell and BP fell more than 0.5%
• Imperial Brands plummeted over 7% to a nine-month low after cutting its full-year forecast due to Middle East conflicts, while Intertek surged 11.8% on potential business split plans

Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee to lead the Federal Reserve, filed financial disclosures revealing assets exceeding $100 million, including two investments of over $50 million each in the Juggernaut Fund LP and $10.2 million in consulting fees from Stanley Druckenmiller's investment office. Warsh has pledged to divest certain holdings, including those with undisclosed underlying assets protected by confidentiality agreements, if confirmed by the Senate.

• Warsh holds two investments each worth over $50 million in the Juggernaut Fund LP, with underlying assets not disclosed due to pre-existing confidentiality agreements
• He received $10.2 million in consulting fees from Wall Street investor Stanley Druckenmiller's investment office
• Warsh committed to divesting undisclosed holdings, including assets in THSDFS LLC worth up to $5 million each, to comply with ethics requirements if confirmed

US stock futures rose on Tuesday, with Dow futures up 100 points and Nasdaq futures gaining 0.34%, as investors balanced tentative US-Iran de-escalation signs against persistent inflation concerns. The market awaits key bank earnings from JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup, plus March producer price index data due at 8:30 a.m. ET. Oil prices retreated despite a US maritime blockade targeting Iran-linked traffic.

• Nearly two dozen S&P 500 companies report this week, with major bank earnings expected to reveal credit quality trends and management outlook for second-half 2026
• March PPI data comes days after consumer prices showed the biggest increase in almost four years, reinforcing fears that any Fed rate cuts would stem from growth concerns rather than inflation victory
• United Airlines stock rose 1.5% and American Airlines jumped 4.3% on merger speculation after United's CEO reportedly pitched a potential combination to US officials in late February

The S&P 500 fully recovered its war-driven losses from U.S.-Iran tensions in a strong Monday rally, with futures edging higher Tuesday as bank earnings season begins. Tech stocks led gains while rising oil prices near $100/barrel failed to pressure equities, signaling market confidence that geopolitical conflict will remain contained. JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo earnings reports are now in focus to confirm whether the rally can continue.

• The S&P 500 futures are testing a major trendline at 6,936.50, with critical support at the 50-day (6,807.25) and 200-day (6,798.02) moving averages that must hold for upside momentum to continue
• Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund rose roughly 2% leading the broad rally, while Goldman Sachs declined despite beating profit expectations due to weaker trading revenue
• WTI crude oil approaching $100/barrel has not triggered equity selloffs, indicating investors believe economic disruption from Middle East tensions will be limited

Australian corporations are issuing profit warnings as the Middle East war drives up fuel prices and economic uncertainty. Qantas Airways reported jet fuel costs up to 32% higher than forecast, while Westpac Banking prepared for increased bad debts amid rising inflation and interest rates. The developments raise concerns about stagflation, with business confidence plunging to levels last seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.

• Qantas forecasts jet fuel costs up to A$800 million ($567 million) or 32% higher for H2 FY2025 as oil prices have more than doubled, prompting flight cuts and fare increases
• Westpac increased loan loss provisions to the highest level since the pandemic, warning that customers face pressure from higher inflation and interest rates due to energy market disruption
• National Australia Bank's business confidence index crashed 29 points to -29 in March, while consumer sentiment dropped 12.5% in April to the lowest in over two years