How Long Will This Stock Market Momentum Last?

• After previous eight-week SPX winning streaks, next-week returns showed only 50% positive outcomes with slight average losses, but one-month forward returns averaged 1.15% (vs. typical 0.7%) with 74% positive rate
• Sentiment remains surprisingly muted with AAII survey showing more bears than bulls, marking only the second time this has occurred during an eight-week win streak since 1987
• Apple's nine-week winning streak has occurred only five times previously since 2004, with the stock averaging 7.5% gains over the subsequent four weeks and outperforming the SPX in four of those instances

Market Summary: Stock Market Momentum Analysis

Key Facts and Figures

The S&P 500 Index (SPX) has achieved an eight-week winning streak as of May 28, 2026—the 20th such streak since 1950. Apple (AAPL) is currently on a nine-week winning streak.

Historical Performance Data

Analysis of previous eight-week SPX winning streaks reveals:

• Next week: Returns slightly negative on average, with positive results only 50% of the time
• One month forward: Average gain of 1.15% (vs. typical 0.7%), with 74% positive outcomes
• Three months forward: Outperformance versus typical returns continues
• Six months forward: Returns normalize to typical market averages

The last SPX eight-week streak occurred in late 2023, followed by double-digit gains over the subsequent three months.

Sentiment Indicators

Current sentiment remains notably subdued despite the rally:

• AAII poll: Negative reading with more bears than bulls—only the second time this has occurred during an eight-week streak (previous instance: September 1993)
• Investors Intelligence poll: Bulls minus bears at 27%, near the 20-year average of 24%

Individual Stocks

Other stocks on extended winning streaks include Ciena (CIEN) and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), both at 11 weeks.

Apple's nine-week streak is its first since 2017. Historical data shows AAPL averaged 7.5% gains over the following four weeks after previous nine-week streaks, outperforming the SPX in four of five instances.

Market Implications

Historical patterns suggest short-term consolidation is common, but momentum typically resumes over one-to-three-month periods, supporting continued bullish positioning despite overbought conditions.