Nasdaq Index: Record Highs Follow Cooler PCE and Iran Ceasefire Talk

• April PCE came in at 0.4% monthly versus 0.5% expected, providing the first sign of cooling inflation after several hot prints, though year-over-year inflation remains at 3.8%, well above the Fed's 2% target.
• Oil prices reversed sharply lower after ceasefire reports, with WTI pulling back from above $89/barrel, though the White House denied a finalized agreement exists and ongoing military tensions could quickly reverse the decline.
• Snowflake surged 35% on strong guidance and an AWS partnership, sparking momentum across software stocks, while bearish sentiment remains elevated at 41.9% for the 16th consecutive week despite record market highs.

Market Summary: Nasdaq Hits Record Highs on Cooler Inflation, Iran Ceasefire Talk

Key Developments

The Nasdaq Composite Index (IXIC) surged to an intraday record of 26,861.59 on Thursday, while the S&P 500 gained approximately 0.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded mostly flat near record levels.

Market Catalysts

Two simultaneous positive catalysts drove the rally:

• April PCE inflation came in at 0.4% monthly, below the 0.5% expectation, marking the first cooling reading after several hot prints. Year-over-year PCE remained at 3.8%, still above the Fed's 2% target.
• Reports of a 60-day ceasefire framework between the U.S. and Iran eased supply concerns, though the White House later denied finalized agreement.

Oil Market Volatility

WTI crude oil initially surged above $89/barrel and Brent crude near $95/barrel following Iranian Revolutionary Guard attacks on a U.S. airbase. However, ceasefire news triggered a reversal, with WTI down 2.30%. Oil volatility remains a key risk to the equity rally.

Sector Performance

Technology and healthcare led gains, with narrow market breadth as only half of S&P 500 stocks advanced. Snowflake surged 35% on strong guidance and an AWS spending deal, catalyzing momentum across software stocks.

Investor Sentiment

Despite record highs, the American Association of Individual Investors survey shows bearish sentiment at 41.9%—well above the 31% historical average—for the 16th consecutive week. This persistent skepticism with sidelined cash could fuel further upside.

Technical Outlook

The Nasdaq's key support level sits at 26,281.52 (50% retracement), with a breakdown toward 25,701.44 potentially signaling trend reversal.