General Market News

US stocks fell Monday as President Trump raised a global tariff to 15% following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down a key part of his tariff policy, creating fresh uncertainty for investors. The Dow dropped 800 points (1.6%), while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell over 1%, though the decline was milder than April's 'Liberation Day' panic. AI and airline stocks were particularly hard hit amid sector-specific concerns.

• Trump's 15% temporary surcharge under Section 122 will remain until late July after the Supreme Court wiped out emergency-powers tariffs, with the EU pausing its Washington trade deal approval in response
• AI-related stocks tumbled as CrowdStrike dropped 8.4% and AppLovin fell 8.2%, with investors worried about competition and questioning whether Big Tech's massive chip spending will yield profits ahead of Nvidia's Wednesday earnings
• Goldman Sachs analysts downplayed economic fears, noting that 'the bulk of the passthrough' from tariff costs to consumer prices had already occurred and forecasts on inflation and growth remain 'little changed'

Market volatility in 2025, including a 20% S&P 500 drawdown followed by a 45% rally, has highlighted critical risks for retirees withdrawing from portfolios. Sequence-of-returns risk means identical portfolios can produce vastly different outcomes based on when withdrawals occur relative to market gains and losses. Financial advisors increasingly recommend flexible withdrawal strategies and cash buffers rather than rigid rules like the traditional 4% withdrawal rate.

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• A cash buffer covering two years of living expenses allows retirees to avoid selling equity positions during downturns, separating income decisions from market timing

Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated that US payroll employment likely declined in 2025, marking only the third time since 1945 that jobs fell outside of a recession. Official data showing 15,000 new jobs per month contained 'upward bias' and will likely be revised downward, indicating actual job losses for the year.

• Bureau of Labor Statistics data showed job creation averaged just 15,000 positions per month in 2025, but Waller expects further downward revisions confirming negative job growth
• Involuntary part-time workers totaled 4.9 million in January, up 410,000 from a year earlier, as employers cut hours rather than jobs
• Research shows 60% of Americans now earn primary income outside fixed salaries, with 40% relying on side jobs, creating income volatility that affects bill-pay timing and credit performance

The European Parliament postponed for a second time a vote on the EU-US trade deal after President Trump imposed a new blanket 15% global tariff. The delay creates uncertainty about whether Trump's new tariff supersedes last year's agreement struck in Turnberry, Scotland, which included reduced duties on EU and US goods. EU lawmakers will reconvene on March 4 to assess US commitment to the deal.

• Trump's new 15% tariff could stack on top of existing 'most-favored-nation' duties, potentially raising tariffs on some cheeses to around 30% and affecting 7-8% of EU products above previously agreed rates
• The original deal set a 15% US tariff on most EU goods with zero tariffs on products like aircraft parts, while the EU committed to removing import duties on many US goods including lobsters
• EU lawmakers had already halted work on the deal last month and many consider it lopsided, though they were willing to accept it with conditions like an 18-month sunset clause

Stock markets fell on Monday after Donald Trump announced he would impose temporary 15% tariffs on all US imports despite a Supreme Court ruling that his previous tariffs overstepped legal authority. The move has sparked investor uncertainty and faces growing domestic opposition, with 60% of Americans backing the court's decision to strike down Trump's original tariff regime.

• Trump invoked a never-before-used section of the Trade Act of 1974 to implement the 15% temporary tariffs after the Supreme Court ruled his emergency measures illegal
• Polling shows 63% of registered voters disapprove of Trump's tariff handling, with most Americans reporting increased prices and even Republicans four times more likely to say tariffs raised costs than lowered them
• Trump threatened countries attempting to 'play games' with the ruling would face 'much higher' tariffs, raising concerns among Republicans ahead of November midterm elections

President Trump announced a new 15% global tariff following a Supreme Court ruling on his broader tariff policies, creating market uncertainty across multiple sectors. While some retailers and emerging markets may benefit from reduced rates compared to earlier levies, domestic lumber and packaging companies face pressure from cheaper imports. Many existing tariffs under Section 232 remain unaffected, leaving steel, aluminum, and automotive sectors without relief.

• Retailers like Best Buy, Nike, Ralph Lauren, and Target expected to benefit as new tariffs are 4% lower than earlier rates, particularly for consumer electronics, toys, and sports equipment
• Domestic packaging and lumber companies including Smurfit WestRock (down 7%) and International Paper (down 6%) face competitive pressure as their pricing advantage over imports diminishes
• Emerging markets, especially China, stand to benefit with tariff rates expected to drop to 24-27% from 32%, while Southeast Asia and India may see reductions of 4-5% and to 14% respectively

T. Rowe Price research suggests that active management strategies for core portfolio holdings can generate meaningful excess returns over passive index funds. The firm's analysis shows that outperformance of just 25-50 basis points annually over 40 years could add two to five years of retirement spending. This challenges the dominance of passive index tracking as the primary building block for diversified portfolios.

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Markets enter a turbulent week focused on President Trump's announcement of new 15% global tariffs following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down prior tariff measures. Key corporate earnings, particularly Nvidia's February 25 results, and economic data including Friday's US Producer Price Index will also drive sentiment. Multiple Federal Reserve officials are scheduled to speak, providing insight into policy views amid trade uncertainty.

• Trump invoked Section 122 of the Trade Act to implement 15% global tariffs for 150 days without Congressional approval, raising questions about exemptions, refunds, and fiscal impact
• Nvidia reports quarterly results February 25 after market close, with analysts expecting strong revenue and income growth driven by AI demand
• Several Fed officials including Waller, Goolsbee, Collins, Bostic, and Barkin will speak this week, while US PPI data releases Friday alongside Trump's State of the Union address on Tuesday

All three major U.S. stock indices fell below their 50-day moving averages on Monday, February 23, 2026, signaling broad selling pressure across markets. The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average each face critical support levels after recent rallies failed. This synchronized weakness suggests a potential shift from equities to cash rather than mere sector rotation.

• The S&P 500 was rejected at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of 6915.65 and fell below its 50-day MA at 6986.68, with key support now at the 6845-6829 retracement zone.
• The Nasdaq failed to break above the major 50% level at 22959.14 and could test support at 22602-22521, with the 200-day MA at 21903.72 becoming relevant if selling intensifies.
• The Dow crossed below its 50-day MA at 49027.98 for the first time since November 25, ending a rally that produced record highs before peaking at 50512.79 on February 10.

U.S. factory orders fell 0.7% in December 2024, primarily due to a 24.8% drop in commercial aircraft bookings, though other sectors showed strength driven by AI investment. The decline was slightly larger than the 0.6% forecast, but orders still rose 3.7% year-over-year. Manufacturing faces headwinds from Trump's tariff policies, despite support from AI adoption in certain segments.

• Commercial aircraft orders plunged 24.8% after surging 98.2% in November, with Boeing receiving 175 orders in December but mostly for less expensive models
• AI-related sectors showed strength: computer and electronic product orders jumped 3.1%, while orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft rose a revised 0.8%
• Trump's tariff policies continue to pressure manufacturing, which represents 10.1% of the economy, with a 15% tariff rate imposed after the Supreme Court struck down his emergency tariffs

JPMorgan recommends buying dips in international stocks, arguing that non-US markets will continue outperforming US equities as leadership shifts away from mega-cap tech. International markets outperformed the US by 12% in 2025 and are already ahead by 8% in 2026, driven by favorable growth-inflation conditions and the stalling of Mag-7 tech giants despite strong earnings.

• International stocks outperformed US markets by 12% in 2025 and lead by 8% year-to-date in 2026, with JPMorgan expecting this trend to continue
• Market leadership is broadening away from Mag-7 tech stocks toward small caps, value stocks, and international equities, with mega-cap tech having 'stalled' despite strong earnings
• JPMorgan sees pullbacks triggered by geopolitical risks (Iran tensions, tariffs) as temporary buying opportunities given solid earnings, softening inflation, and lower long-dated bond yields

US stocks opened flat on Monday after President Trump raised global tariffs from 10% to 15%, following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down his earlier 'reciprocal' tariff framework. The move increased market uncertainty about inflation, growth, and corporate earnings, prompting investors to adopt a cautious stance. Gold rallied over 1% as a safe haven while Bitcoin fell below $65,000 before recovering.

• Trump imposed the 15% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which allows duties for up to 150 days before requiring congressional approval, with warnings of additional levies possible in coming months
• The European Commission expressed concern that the tariff increase is 'not conducive' to fair transatlantic trade and called for clarity from the US government on trade policy direction
• Gold futures climbed around 2% as investors sought safety, while Bitcoin dropped approximately 2% to around $66,000, reflecting a shift toward traditional safe-haven assets amid rising risk aversion

The Supreme Court struck down President Trump's tariffs in a 6-3 ruling on Friday, but Trump responded by announcing a new 15% global tariff over the weekend. Stock futures fell Monday morning as investors assess the policy reversal, which could result in billions in refunds and has disrupted ongoing trade negotiations. Markets had ended the prior week in positive territory despite the uncertainty.

• The Supreme Court ruled Trump's original tariff authority was unauthorized, potentially triggering billions in refunds to importers who already paid duties
• Trump quickly enacted a new 15% global tariff after the ruling, drawing criticism from European and Asian leaders and causing India to pause trade negotiations
• OpenAI slashed its projected infrastructure spending from $1.4 trillion to $600 billion by 2030, while raising revenue expectations to over $280 billion by decade's end

The dollar has lost some of its safe-haven status since 2024, according to an ING report, though there is no broad deterioration in global demand for the currency. The dollar index fell nearly 10% last year, its worst annual performance since 2017, amid concerns over U.S. trade policy and Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve. ING assesses the weakness as more cyclical than structural at this stage.

• ING measured the decline in safe-haven status by calculating the three-month correlation between the dollar index and U.S. stocks and 10-year Treasuries compared to 2024
• Private investors, who hold over 80% of foreign holdings of U.S. assets, remain invested, and there are no signs of accelerated de-dollarisation in global transactions
• ING warns that if the Fed were seen cutting rates inappropriately, 'a run on the dollar' could follow, and forecasts the euro at $1.22 by year-end versus current levels around $1.18

US stock futures pointed lower on February 23, 2026, as President Trump announced a revised 15% global tariff under Section 122 authority after the Supreme Court ruled his previous broad-based tariffs unconstitutional. The tariff uncertainty and potential US-Iran military strikes drove investors toward safe-haven assets like gold and silver, while weighing on tech stocks particularly in the Nasdaq.

• Trump increased his planned global tariff from 10% to the maximum 15% allowed under Section 122 authority, though this measure expires mid-July without Congressional approval
• Gold rose over 1% to $5,163.40 per ounce and silver jumped nearly 3% to $87/oz as precious metals benefited from renewed uncertainty
• The Nasdaq remains in negative territory year-to-date and is a major global underperformer, with key events ahead including Trump's State of the Union and Nvidia earnings on Wednesday

US stock index futures declined on Monday after President Trump imposed a new 15% global tariff following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down most of his earlier levies. The Supreme Court's 6-3 decision voided a large portion of tariffs imposed last year, potentially creating a $170 billion gap in US finances. The new tariffs, implemented under a different statute, revived investor concerns about inflation, trade, and economic growth.

• Dow Jones futures fell about 127 points, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 futures declining 0.25% to 0.4%, reversing Friday's gains when major indexes had posted weekly increases.
• Nvidia earnings due Wednesday are closely watched for signals on AI spending, as high valuations and concerns about AI investment returns have pressured tech stocks, with the S&P 500 software index down over 20% this year.
• Bitcoin dropped nearly 3% to $66,141, oil prices weakened with Brent at $70.27/barrel, while gold and silver mining stocks advanced with Newmont up 1% amid market uncertainty.

U.S. Treasury yields remained largely unchanged early in the week as investors assessed President Trump's decision to raise global tariffs to 15% from 10%, following a Supreme Court ruling that struck down much of his previous tariff implementation. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.076%, while investors await key economic data including durable goods orders and producer price index.

• The Supreme Court ruled 6-3 on Friday that Trump wrongfully used the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to enforce tariffs, but Trump immediately responded by raising global tariffs to 15%
• Treasury yields showed minimal movement: 10-year at 4.076% (down less than 1 basis point), 30-year at 4.72%, and 2-year at 3.47%
• Investors are monitoring upcoming economic data releases, including durable goods orders and factory orders on Monday, and the producer price index on Friday

Following a U.S. Supreme Court ruling that struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), President Trump implemented new 15% global duties under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act. This shift has created winners and losers: U.S. allies like the U.K., EU, Japan, and South Korea face higher trade-weighted tariffs, while countries like Brazil and China see sharp reductions. The change has raised confusion about existing bilateral trade deals and their enforceability.

• The U.K. faces a 2.1 percentage point tariff increase and the EU sees a 0.8 point rise, while Brazil's rate drops 13.6 points and China's falls 7.1 points on a trade-weighted basis.
• Countries that negotiated early deals with the U.S., such as Japan (which committed $150 billion in investment), now receive the same treatment as those who resisted negotiations, potentially paying for no advantage.
• Uncertainty persists as Trump announced 15% tariffs but the White House fact sheet lists 10%, and the legal basis for bilateral deals and product-level carve-outs under Section 122 remains unclear.

Goldman Sachs raised its Q4 2026 oil price forecasts by $6, projecting Brent crude at $60 per barrel and WTI at $56, driven by lower OECD inventory levels. The bank also increased its full-year 2026 averages to $64 for Brent (from $56) and $60 for WTI (from $52), while maintaining its outlook of a 2.3 million bpd supply surplus and assuming no Iran-related supply disruptions.

• Goldman's $60 Brent forecast for Q4 2026 includes a $6 risk premium that could fade if geopolitical tensions ease, with downside risks of $5-8 per barrel if sanctions on Iran or Russia are lifted
• The bank expects OPEC+ to begin gradually increasing production in Q2 2026 as OECD inventories have not built up as anticipated
• Goldman projects Brent and WTI to average $65 and $61 respectively in 2027, rising to $70 and $66 by December 2027 on solid demand and slowing supply growth

European stocks are expected to open lower on Monday as markets react to President Trump's announcement of increased global tariffs from 10% to 15%, effective immediately. The move comes after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against a portion of Trump's reciprocal tariffs last week, prompting the administration to implement broader tariff measures that have heightened concerns about inflation and global growth.

• U.K. stocks expected to open 0.2% lower, with Germany down 0.7%, France down 0.4%, and Italy down 0.45%
• Trump raised the worldwide tariff from 10% to 15% effective immediately via Truth Social, warning that additional levies would follow
• Market uncertainty has increased over the outlook for inflation and global growth following the new blanket tariff policy