General Market News

U.S. tariff collections surged 304% year-over-year to $124 billion through January 2026, helping reduce the federal budget deficit by 17-21%. The revenue increase follows President Trump's April 2025 tariffs on all imports and reciprocal duties on specific countries, but a pending Supreme Court decision could force the government to reimburse all duties collected if the tariffs are ruled unconstitutional.

• January tariff collections reached $30 billion, bringing fiscal year-to-date customs duties to $124 billion, up 304% from the same period in 2025
• The budget deficit fell to $95 billion in January (down 26% year-over-year) and $697 billion year-to-date (down 17-21% depending on calendar adjustments)
• The Supreme Court heard challenges to Trump's tariff authority in November 2025 but has not yet ruled, creating uncertainty as a negative decision could require the U.S. to reimburse all collected duties

The January jobs report exceeded expectations with strong headline numbers, but revealed underlying weaknesses. While payrolls beat forecasts and unemployment fell to 4.3%, annual revisions showed 898,000 fewer jobs were created in the April 2024-March 2025 period than initially reported. The strong headline numbers led traders to push back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts until at least June.

• Job gains were heavily concentrated in healthcare (82,000 jobs) and social assistance (42,000), with only construction (33,000) showing other notable growth, suggesting narrow employment strength
• Annual benchmark revisions revealed 898,000 fewer payroll additions than originally stated for April 2024-March 2025, and the economy lost a net 1,000 jobs in the final six months of 2025
• Futures markets now show only 8% probability of a Fed rate cut in March, with the next reduction not expected until June at earliest, as strong headline data suggests the central bank will remain on hold

Prediction markets experienced record growth during the Super Bowl, with platforms like Kalshi seeing downloads up 1,544% and daily active users reaching nearly 2 million. The sector now looks to capitalize on upcoming sports events including NBA All-Star Weekend, March Madness, the Winter Olympics, and the World Cup to sustain momentum and drive further trading volumes.

• Kalshi recorded over $100 million in trading on culture markets like 'What Bad Bunny was going to perform' during Super Bowl week, demonstrating diverse betting interest beyond traditional sports outcomes
• Robinhood reported 300% growth in event contract revenue, with 12 billion contracts traded in 2025 and 4 billion already in 2026, making it the company's fastest-growing business
• Traditional sportsbook leaders FanDuel (4.2 million users) and DraftKings (5 million users) still dominate but see prediction markets as complementary, particularly in states without legalized sports wagering

The US added 130,000 jobs in January 2026, exceeding economist expectations of 70,000 and doubling December's gains, with unemployment at 4.3%. However, annual revisions slashed 2025's total job growth from 584,000 to just 181,000, marking the weakest year since the Covid-19 pandemic and reflecting ongoing labor market instability.

• January's 130,000 job gains doubled December's 50,000 but remained 13,000 below January 2025 levels, signaling a slowing growth trend
• 2025 total job additions were drastically revised down to 181,000 from 584,000, compared to 2 million jobs added in 2024
• Job openings fell to 6.542 million in December 2025 (lowest since September 2020), while January 2026 layoffs reached 108,435, up 118% year-over-year and the highest start-of-year figure since 2009

The US economy added 130,000 jobs in January 2026, doubling expectations of 65,000, while unemployment fell to 4.3%. The stronger-than-expected labor market report signals the Federal Reserve may delay additional rate cuts, with analysts now expecting the first potential reduction in July rather than June and fewer cuts overall in 2026.

• Private payrolls jumped 172,000, far exceeding the 68,000 estimate, with gains concentrated in healthcare, social assistance, and construction
• Average hourly earnings increased 0.4% month-over-month, above the 0.3% forecast, while underemployment fell from 8.4% to 8%
• Market expectations shifted following the report, with analysts indicating the data 'likely puts to bed hopes for a third rate cut this year' and reinforces a more patient Fed approach

US stocks opened higher on Wednesday following a stronger-than-expected January jobs report that eased concerns about economic slowdown. The Nasdaq Composite climbed 0.8%, the S&P 500 gained 0.6%, and the Dow Jones rose 0.4%. The positive market reaction came after employers added 130,000 jobs in January, significantly exceeding the 55,000 forecast.

• January nonfarm payrolls added 130,000 jobs, more than double the 55,000 forecast and a sharp improvement from December's revised 48,000 gain, while unemployment fell to 4.3%
• Annual benchmark revisions showed the US economy added only 181,000 jobs in 2025, significantly lower than the previously reported 584,000, indicating weaker hiring momentum over the past year
• The rally reversed Tuesday's losses driven by flat December retail sales data, with investors now focused on Friday's Consumer Price Index release for signals on inflation and monetary policy

US employers added 130,000 jobs in January 2026, significantly exceeding expectations of 55,000-65,000 hires, while unemployment fell to 4.3%. However, annual benchmark revisions revealed the US economy added only 181,000 jobs in all of 2025, far below the previously reported 584,000, complicating the outlook for Federal Reserve rate cuts.

• Healthcare led job growth with 82,000 new positions, while federal government employment fell by 34,000, continuing a decline of over 327,000 jobs (11%) since October 2024
• Stock futures rose following the report, with S&P 500 futures up 0.4% and the 10-year Treasury yield jumping nearly 5 basis points to 4.19%
• Analysts say the strong jobs data significantly weakens the case for imminent Fed rate cuts, with the labor market appearing more resilient than recent expectations suggested

The U.S. added 130,000 jobs in January 2026, exceeding expectations after a year of weak employment growth. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, while entertainment sector jobs showed mixed results with movies and music gaining positions but broadcasting declining. Revisions revealed 2025 saw only 181,000 total job gains, down sharply from the prior 584,000 estimate.

• Movies and music jobs increased by 13,900 to 360,900, while broadcasting and content provider jobs fell by 4,800 to 335,900
• Average hourly earnings rose to $37.17, up 15 cents, with year-over-year wage growth at 3.7%
• Historical data revisions showed 2025 employment gains were significantly weaker than initially reported, dropping from 584,000 to just 181,000 jobs added for the full year

The U.S. economy added 130,000 jobs in January 2026, exceeding economists' expectations of 70,000 jobs, according to a delayed Labor Department report. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, slightly below the anticipated 4.4%, as the Federal Reserve assesses potential rate cuts.

• January job gains of 130K nearly doubled economist forecasts of 70K, signaling stronger-than-expected labor market performance
• Unemployment rate decreased to 4.3%, below the expected 4.4%
• Payroll figures for November and December were revised downward by a combined 17,000 jobs (November down to 41K, December to 48K)

The Investors Intelligence poll showed bullish sentiment surpassing 60% for the first time since late 2024, a contrarian indicator that historically signals increased risk of a market pullback. Analysis of 22 similar occurrences since 1965 reveals the S&P 500 significantly underperformed its typical returns in the following 6-12 months. When bullishness exceeds 60% near all-time highs, average one-year SPX returns dropped to just 2.06% compared to the normal 8.59%.

• After prior instances of bullish sentiment exceeding 60%, the SPX averaged just 2.32% over six months versus the typical 4.25% return, with positive outcomes dropping from 69% to 59%.
• When the bullish signal occurred within 1% of all-time highs (10 of 22 cases), SPX returns were negative over one and three months, with six-month and one-year gains of only 1.84% and 2.06% respectively.
• Historical data shows SPX performs best when bullish sentiment is 30% or below, averaging 11%+ returns with 75% positive outcomes, versus 5.19% returns when bulls exceed 60%.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average faces potential downside risk of 10,000 points if a major market correction occurs, similar to historical corrections seen during events like the 2025 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement, COVID-19, and the 2008 financial crisis. The article warns that the Dow's rapid rise from 25,000 to 50,000, driven primarily by a handful of tech and financial stocks, makes it vulnerable to sharp declines triggered by AI bubble concerns, geopolitical instability, or inflation resurgence.

• The S&P 500 experienced a 19% decline from February to April 2025 due to President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff threats on nearly 100 nations, before rebounding 17% by year-end
• The Dow's concentration in just 30 stocks, particularly driven by Goldman Sachs, Apple, Microsoft, Visa, Amex, and JPMorgan, creates instability and vulnerability to sector-specific shocks like an AI bubble burst
• Financial stocks face dual threats from AI disruption in trading and lending, plus exposure to potential inflation resurgence after CPI peaked at 8.5% in March 2022, while ongoing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine and the Middle East add further market risk

US employers added 130,000 jobs in January 2026, more than double the expected 55,000, signaling unexpected labor market strength. The unemployment rate declined to 4.3% from 4.4%, and the robust hiring likely reduces chances of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at next month's meeting.

• January job gains of 130,000 far exceeded economist expectations of 55,000 new positions
• Unemployment rate improved to 4.3% from 4.4% in the previous month
• Strong labor market data likely diminishes prospects for Fed interest rate cuts in the near term, following 2025's slowest job growth year since 2009 (excluding pandemic-affected 2020)

U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 jobs in January, significantly exceeding the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 55,000. The unemployment rate ticked up slightly to 4.3% from the expected 4.4%, indicating a stronger-than-anticipated labor market performance.

• Job gains more than doubled expectations, with 130,000 new positions versus the forecast of 55,000
• Unemployment rate came in at 4.3%, slightly better than the 4.4% consensus estimate
• The robust hiring data suggests continued resilience in the U.S. labor market despite economic uncertainties

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the January 2026 jobs report on February 11, with economists forecasting a modest gain of 55,000-65,000 jobs and unemployment holding steady at 4.4%. The data will provide critical insight into whether the labor market is recovering from 2025's weakest hiring pace outside a recession since 2003, and will significantly influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions for the year.

• December 2025 saw only 50,000 jobs added, reflecting the average monthly gain for a year marked by a 'low-hire, low-fire' environment where employers avoided both expansion and layoffs
• White House officials are tempering expectations, with advisers suggesting that sub-100,000 monthly job gains should no longer be considered alarming due to immigration restrictions, AI adoption, and slower labor-force growth
• Markets are pricing in at least two 25-basis-point Fed rate cuts in 2026, with Treasury yields falling and weaker-than-expected jobs data potentially strengthening the case for continued monetary easing

US stock futures rose modestly on Wednesday morning ahead of the delayed January non-farm payrolls report, with the Dow Jones positioned to extend its record-breaking streak. The report is expected to show 66,000 jobs created in January, up from 50,000 in December. Markets are pricing in a 40% chance of a Federal Reserve rate cut in March or April, with the jobs data potentially influencing the Fed's decision-making.

• Dow Jones futures up 0.1%, set for further record highs after notching three consecutive record closes, most recently at 50,188
• Expected NFP report shows 66,000 jobs added in January versus 50,000 in December, with White House representatives reportedly trying to 'dial down expectations'
• Markets pricing 40% probability of Fed rate cut by April, with weak jobs data despite 4.4% Q3 GDP growth showing divergence between economic growth and employment trends

US stock index futures edged higher on February 11, 2026, as traders awaited delayed NFP data expected to show 55,000 jobs added with unemployment at 4.4%. Market focus centers on potential downward revisions to 2025 job data that could signal labor market weakness and increase pressure for Federal Reserve rate cuts as early as March or June.

• The S&P 500 holds above its 50-day moving average at 6,937.96, with potential bullish momentum toward record highs near 7,043.00 if support holds
• Nasdaq 100 faces critical resistance at a long-term downtrend line at 25,310.00, with a break above potentially triggering acceleration toward the 50-day MA at 25,640.25
• Major premarket movers include Mattel plunging 28% on weak guidance, Cloudflare surging 15% on strong revenue outlook, and Robinhood dropping 7% after missing estimates

Finance and wealth management stocks experienced sharp selloffs in the US and Europe after fintech firm Altruist launched an AI-powered tax strategy tool that automates financial document analysis. US firms like Charles Schwab fell 7.4% and Raymond James dropped 8.7%, while European counterparts including St James's Place plunged over 11%. Analysts argue the market reaction overstates AI's threat to advisory businesses, noting that relationship-driven services requiring judgment and personalization remain difficult to automate.

• Altruist's new AI tool on its Hazel platform automates personalized tax strategy creation by analyzing documents without manual data entry, targeting the multitrillion-dollar RIA custody market where it competes with Schwab and Fidelity
• The selloff spread globally with US wealth managers falling 3-8.7% and European firms declining 4-11%, driven by investor fears of margin compression and disintermediation in high-value advisory services like tax planning
• Multiple analysts called the selloff overdone, with Morningstar stating many companies now trade below intrinsic valuations and Citizens noting AI could expand rather than compress advisory services over the next several years

The January jobs report could significantly influence Federal Reserve policy, with markets increasingly pricing in potential rate cuts amid weaker-than-expected wage growth and soft retail sales. Economists forecast 67,000 payroll additions, but several wild cards including BLS methodology changes and weather effects could produce divergent outcomes. One weak jobs report could shift odds in favor of an April Fed rate cut.

• Wall Street expects 67,000 January payroll additions (80,000 private sector offset by 13,000 government decline), with unemployment holding at 4.4% and wage growth slipping to 3.6% from 3.8%
• Fed rate cut odds have increased to 41% for the April 29 meeting (up from 25% a week ago) and 20% for the March 18 meeting, driven by recent soft economic data
• BLS is changing its methodology for estimating job creation from firm births and deaths, while mild January weather and lackluster holiday hiring could skew the seasonally adjusted results

Dow Jones Index futures hit an all-time high of 50,305 on February 11, 2026, up 120 points, as investors await key U.S. economic data including delayed jobs numbers and January inflation figures. The rally continues a bull run from April 2025 lows of 36,683, driven by strong corporate earnings showing 13% average growth for S&P 500 companies for the fifth consecutive quarter.

• Non-farm payrolls data expected to show 70,000 jobs added in January with unemployment holding at 4.4%, while January CPI is forecast to decline to 2.5% headline and 2.6% core inflation
• Major earnings releases this week include Cisco, McDonald's, T-Mobile, Shopify, Airbnb, and Arista Networks, with recent results showing the fifth straight quarter of double-digit earnings growth
• Technical analysis shows the index above key moving averages with an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern pointing to potential continued rally toward 51,000 resistance level

The European Commission has imposed additional tariffs ranging from 7.8% to 35.3% on electric vehicles imported from China, on top of the EU's standard 10% car import duty. However, under new EU rules, carmakers can negotiate exemptions for individual models, with Volkswagen's Cupra Tavascan becoming the first to secure a tariff-free deal in February 2026 by agreeing to minimum pricing and annual quota limits.

• SAIC Group faces the highest tariff at 35.3%, while Tesla received the lowest rate at 7.8% after an individual assessment; BYD, Geely, and other cooperating Chinese manufacturers face rates between 17% and 20.7%
• Volkswagen's Cupra Tavascan SUV coupe became the first model to receive a 0% tariff exemption in exchange for accepting a minimum price commitment and import quota restrictions
• Chinese automakers are now actively pursuing similar exemption deals for EV models they plan to export to Europe, according to the China Chamber of Commerce to the EU