General Market News

One year after President Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement in April 2025, U.S. companies across retail, automotive, consumer goods, and pharmaceutical sectors continue navigating the fallout from fluctuating trade policies. While the effective U.S. tariff rate nearly doubled from 5.6% to 11.1%, companies have adapted by diversifying supply chains and building greater flexibility into operations, though 80-85% of tariff costs were absorbed domestically through reduced margins or higher consumer prices.

• Automotive sector faced severe impact with Toyota forecasting $9.5 billion in tariff costs and Detroit automakers (GM, Ford, Stellantis) absorbing a combined $6 billion, though final impacts were lower than initially projected due to policy adjustments eliminating overlapping duties.
• Retail industry showed mixed responses: large retailers like Walmart and Home Depot managed impacts through supply chain diversification (targeting max 10% sourcing from any single country), while smaller retailers struggled; many passed costs to consumers through price increases.
• Pharmaceutical companies secured favorable treatment through deals with Trump's administration, with 13 major drugmakers gaining three-year tariff exemptions in exchange for price cuts and U.S. manufacturing investments, while non-participating companies now face 100% tariffs on branded drugs.

Q1 2026 dividend-increase announcements reached their highest level since 2019, with 41% of dividend announcements denoting an increase, matching levels from Q1 2025 and Q1 2022. This reflects strong boardroom optimism about cash flows, though a significant divide has emerged between large-cap and small-cap companies in their payout strategies.

• Mega-cap companies (over $200B market cap) showed exceptional confidence with over 60% reporting dividend increases, led by TSM, AstraZeneca, HSBC, and Verizon, while small-cap firms (under $2B) only achieved a 38% increase rate as they hoard cash amid tighter credit expectations.
• Q4 2025 recorded 17,229 price adjustments for North American dividends, the largest quarterly tally in five years of data, while Q1 2026 had 13,137 adjustments, the third largest amount.
• Regional weakness emerged in Asia-Pacific, with countries like New Zealand, Australia, Hong Kong, and Singapore experiencing more dividend cuts than increases, including high-profile reductions from China Mobile, ING Groep, and Barclays.

President Trump announced new 100% tariffs on branded pharmaceutical imports unless manufacturers cut U.S. drug prices and move production domestically, while also overhauling metal tariffs by reducing rates on derivative products to 25%. These moves come one year after Trump's 'Liberation Day' broad global tariffs collapsed following a Supreme Court ruling in February that struck them down and required refunds of $166 billion in collected duties.

• Drug manufacturers have 120-180 days to comply by cutting prices and relocating production to avoid 100% tariffs, though tariffs are capped at 15% for EU, Japan, South Korea, and Switzerland under existing trade deals
• Metal derivative product tariffs were reduced from 50% to 25%, with products containing less than 15% metal content by weight now exempt, while the 50% base rate on steel, aluminum, and copper will now apply to U.S. sales price rather than declared import value
• The U.S. Chamber of Commerce warned the new pharmaceutical and metals tariff schemes will raise healthcare costs and add pressure to manufacturing, construction, and energy industries already facing higher input costs

S&P 500 earnings estimates continue to rise despite oil reaching $100 per barrel, with first-quarter profit growth now expected at 13.2% year-over-year, up from 12.8% at year-end. This would mark the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth, driven primarily by the Technology and Energy sectors.

• Of 110 S&P 500 companies issuing Q1 guidance, 59 gave positive earnings outlooks (above historical averages) while only 51 issued negative guidance (the lowest since Q4 2021)
• Technology sector leads with 33 companies issuing positive EPS outlooks and an 8.6% increase in estimates, with notable jumps for Micron (from $8.21 to $12.20) and Sandisk (from $3.57 to $4.93)
• Energy sector earnings estimates surged 8% as oil prices climbed, with Exxon Mobil's average EPS estimate rising from $1.67 to $1.84, accounting for much of the sector's improvement

US stocks closed mixed on Thursday after paring earlier losses triggered by escalating Iran tensions and surging oil prices. WTI crude jumped 11% to $111 per barrel while Brent rose 7% to $108, driving extreme intraday volatility with the VIX climbing above 25. Diplomatic signals from Iran and Oman later in the session helped stabilize markets ahead of the Good Friday holiday.

• The Dow fell 0.13% to 46,504.51, while the S&P 500 gained 0.11% to 6,582.58 and Nasdaq rose 0.18% to 21,876.87 after recovering from intraday losses exceeding 1.4-2.2%
• October oil futures priced at $82 per barrel suggest traders expect temporary disruption despite front-month prices hitting $111, indicating concerns about prolonged inflation pressure from elevated energy costs
• Defensive utilities stocks outperformed while consumer discretionary declined, as investors await March jobs data and navigate uncertainty from President Trump's threats of 'extremely hard' strikes on Iran

The U.S. March jobs report, due Friday, is expected to show payroll gains of just 59,000, well below historical norms but sufficient to maintain the 4.4% unemployment rate. The labor market has been largely stagnant over the past year due to immigration restrictions, demographic shifts, and geopolitical uncertainty, with companies neither hiring nor firing significantly. The threshold for job growth needed to keep unemployment stable has dropped dramatically, with St. Louis Fed estimates now as low as 15,000 monthly jobs.

• St. Louis Fed research indicates breakeven job growth could be as low as 15,000 to 87,000 monthly, down sharply from 153,000 estimated in April 2025, reflecting major workforce demographic changes
• Health care has been the primary driver of employment, with the sector accounting for all net job growth over the past year; without health care, the economy would have lost over 500,000 jobs
• Several Wall Street firms including Goldman Sachs and Moody's Analytics have raised recession probabilities for the next 12 months, with EY Parthenon citing 40% odds due to labor market weakness and geopolitical risks

Stock investors face heightened uncertainty heading into the Good Friday long weekend amid volatile developments in the Iran war and the release of March jobs data while markets are closed. Contradictory messages from the White House and Tehran, combined with U.S. troop deployments to the Middle East, have created a headline-driven market where investors are reluctant to hold risk over the weekend. The upcoming jobs report adds pressure after February's surprise loss of jobs.

• Markets will be closed Friday when the March jobs report is released; economists predict job gains after February's unexpected loss of jobs that caused stocks to fall
• U.S. has sent thousands of additional troops to the Middle East, with uncertainty whether this is a negotiating tactic or preparation for escalation; previous major moves have occurred on weekends when markets are closed
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rose Thursday but remains below last Friday's year-to-date high; investors describe the market as 'headline dependent' with one strategist noting 'clarity is not really possible'

U.S. markets transitioned from a brutal Q1 to cautious optimism in April 2026, though the period was marked by volatility from geopolitical tensions involving Iran and a policy announcement from President Trump. All three major indexes experienced significant swings as traders navigated elevated oil prices and mixed corporate earnings signals.

• Big Tech stocks faced pressure, with Apple testing key support levels and Nvidia pulling back, while options activity indicated bullish positioning remained cautious
• Geopolitical strife impacted multiple sectors beyond energy, with aluminum prices soaring and companies like Nike and General Motors issuing disappointing guidance despite earnings beats
• Looking ahead to April, investors are preparing for new earnings reports and monitoring 24 stocks including Dollar General that face critical technical levels

The 10-year Treasury real yield has risen 43 basis points since late February when conflict with Iran began, signaling a market repricing for higher-for-longer interest rates driven by oil-fueled inflation fears rather than economic growth concerns. The Fed faces a policy dilemma where rate cuts could worsen inflation while rate hikes could damage growth. Investors are monitoring real yields as a key indicator to distinguish between inflation-driven repricing and genuine economic growth worries.

• The 43 basis point increase in 10-year Treasury real yield (TIPS) is roughly equal to the market's expected Fed policy path, with the term premium component remaining relatively unchanged
• Real yield currently reflects inflation-driven repricing without an increase in macro uncertainty or risk aversion, suggesting economic growth risks are not yet a major concern
• A significant drop in real yield would signal a flight to safety and indicate investors are becoming worried about future economic growth prospects

Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan stated that U.S. oil producers are unlikely to increase output in the short term to ease consumer gasoline prices, despite oil trading around $110 per barrel. She emphasized that sustained prices above the $70 breakeven level are needed before producers will invest in new drilling, while inflation concerns persist amid Middle East conflict uncertainties.

• U.S. oil producers require sustained prices above their $70 per barrel breakeven point before committing to production increases, even with current prices near $110
• The PCE Price Index stood at 2.8% in January (3.1% core), well above the Fed's 2% target, with energy price shocks from Middle East conflict creating additional inflation risks
• The Fed maintained its benchmark rate in the 4.25%-4.5% range and projects only one rate cut in 2026, facing difficult trade-offs between inflation control and employment mandates

The first full week of April 2026 will feature critical inflation data releases, including February's PCE and CPI readings, along with revised Q4 GDP figures and minutes from the latest Federal Reserve FOMC meeting. Earnings reports from Delta Air Lines, BlackBerry, and Levi Strauss are also scheduled. The heavy concentration of economic data on Thursday makes it a pivotal day for market participants assessing inflation trends and Fed policy direction.

• Key inflation indicators drop Thursday, April 9, including February personal income/spending, PCE index (core, monthly, and year-over-year), and Q4 GDP revisions
• March CPI data releases Friday, April 10, alongside February factory orders and preliminary April consumer sentiment readings
• FOMC meeting minutes from March will be published Wednesday, April 8, providing insight into the Fed's latest policy discussions

Mortgage rates increased for the fifth consecutive week, with the average 30-year fixed rate reaching 6.46%, up from 6.38% the previous week, according to Freddie Mac. The rise is attributed to ongoing conflict in Iran creating market volatility. The increase affects homebuyers during the spring buying season, though rates remain below the 6.64% level from a year ago.

• The 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.46%, while 15-year fixed rates rose to 5.77%, marking five straight weeks of increases
• Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury yield, which hovered around 4.3%, with geopolitical tensions in Iran contributing to market uncertainty
• Freddie Mac's chief economist advises buyers to shop around for rates, noting they can save thousands of dollars by getting multiple quotes during spring homebuying season

Britain announced it has finalized the full text of a pharmaceutical trade agreement with the United States, securing tariff-free access for British-made medicines to the U.S. market. The deal, part of a broader U.S.-UK trade accord signed last year, guarantees zero tariffs for at least three years and makes Britain the only country with such pharmaceutical access to the U.S. market.

• The agreement commits the U.S. to zero tariffs on British pharmaceutical exports for a minimum of three years
• Britain will be the only country with tariff-free access for medicines to the U.S. market under this arrangement
• The pharmaceutical partnership was negotiated as part of a wider U.S.-UK trade accord that was signed in the previous year

President Trump's April 2nd speech vowing intensified military strikes on Iran, rather than plans to reopen the blocked Strait of Hormuz, has sent U.S. fuel prices surging toward record levels. Gasoline prices are expected to breach $5 per gallon within a month, while diesel could hit record highs within two weeks, severely impacting consumers ahead of peak summer travel season.

• U.S. average retail gasoline prices are projected to reach $4.25-$4.45 per gallon next week and could exceed $5 per gallon within a month if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed
• Diesel prices are forecast to climb from $5.47 per gallon to $5.80-$6.00 within two weeks, approaching or surpassing the 2022 record of $5.83 per gallon
• Wholesale fuel markets jumped 17-19 cents per gallon immediately following Trump's speech, with the president stating the strait would open 'naturally' when the war ends rather than presenting a concrete plan

Restaurant Brands International (QSR), parent company of Tim Hortons, Burger King, Popeyes, and Firehouse Subs, has been added to Josh Brown's 'Best Stocks in the Market' list as it breaks through technical resistance at $75. The company is executing a turnaround strategy under CEO Patrick Doyle, who previously led Domino's Pizza to legendary gains, with early signs of success at Burger King's 'Reclaim the Flame' initiative.

• QSR operates 33,000 restaurants across 125 markets with 95% franchised, targeting 1,800 net new restaurants annually by 2028, primarily international locations that carry higher royalty rates
• The company expects strong growth for the upcoming May quarter: 6% revenue growth, 35% EBIT growth, and 10% EPS growth year-over-year, driven by international expansion
• Technical setup shows stock breaking out toward mid-to-high $80s target after consolidating below $75 resistance for a year, with support at 200-day moving average around $68

Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan outlined ways the Fed could reduce its $6.6 trillion balance sheet through regulatory changes rather than forcing banks to hold fewer reserves. She emphasized that the current 'ample reserves' system works well for financial stability and interest rate control. Upcoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has previously criticized the Fed's balance sheet management.

• The Fed's balance sheet peaked at $9 trillion in 2022 during the pandemic and has since contracted to $6.6 trillion, with bank reserves stable around $3 trillion
• Logan proposed regulatory changes to reduce banks' reserve demand and broader access to Fed liquidity facilities as paths to shrink the balance sheet while maintaining the ample reserves framework
• The large balance sheet has put the Fed in a loss-making position and drawn criticism from Kevin Warsh, who will succeed Jerome Powell as Fed Chair in May

US stocks fell sharply on Thursday, with the Dow Jones dropping 637 points (1.3%) after President Trump signaled an escalation of military operations against Iran, reversing earlier de-escalation hopes. Oil prices surged over 7-12% on heightened geopolitical tensions, while expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts were completely eliminated.

• Trump stated military operations would intensify over 'the next two to three weeks' to bring Iran 'back to the stone ages,' contradicting earlier suggestions of a swift US withdrawal
• Brent crude climbed 7% above $108 per barrel while WTI jumped 12% above $112, boosting energy stocks like Exxon Mobil (+2.5%) and Chevron (+3%)
• Traders now price in zero Fed rate cuts compared to expectations for two cuts before the conflict began, as rising oil prices fuel inflation concerns

US stock futures tumbled Thursday morning, with Dow futures down 604 points (1.3%), as President Trump vowed to hit Iran 'extremely hard' in coming weeks without providing a timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices surged sharply, with Brent crude up 7.7% to $108.96 and WTI jumping 12% to $112.11, as investors fear escalating conflict will damage more energy infrastructure.

• The Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for 20% of global oil supply, remains closed as Trump says other countries should take the lead in reopening it, raising concerns he may leave Iran without a peace deal
• Iran retaliated against Israeli strikes by attacking energy facilities in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, with damage to Qatar's Las Raffan natural gas plant already sparking supply concerns due to lengthy repair timelines
• Market sentiment reversed sharply from Wednesday when the S&P 500 posted its biggest two-day advance since May on hopes for a quick war resolution

The escalating Middle East conflict has prompted multiple global companies to postpone IPOs and suspend dividend payments due to market volatility, supply chain disruptions, and deteriorating investor sentiment. Affected firms span sectors from fintech to travel, with companies citing logistics challenges, raw material supply issues, and capital market instability as primary concerns.

• Indian fintech PhonePe (Walmart-backed) and UK travel firm Loveholidays (targeting £1 billion IPO) have delayed their public offerings citing geopolitical tensions and market volatility
• Swedish outdoor tech firm Dometic Group withdrew its SEK 1.00 dividend proposal, while Canadian firm McCoy Global suspended quarterly dividends to maintain financial flexibility
• The conflict has created cascading effects including logistics disruptions, delivery schedule delays, and complications with mandatory customer verification processes for international investors

US stock futures declined sharply on Thursday after President Trump announced plans to 'hit Iran extremely hard' for up to three weeks, reversing the previous day's gains driven by diplomatic hopes. The Nasdaq is expected to fall 1.7%, with the S&P 500 down 1.3% and the Dow off 1.1%, as markets react to escalating Middle East tensions.

• Oil prices surged 8.6% to nearly $108 per barrel (WTI crude) as investors price in prolonged disruption risks through the Strait of Hormuz
• Technology stocks are particularly affected, with pre-market declines in major names like Nvidia and Alphabet, while precious metals retreated
• Trump's speech came after Wednesday's market close, which had seen gains (Nasdaq +1.2%, S&P 500 +0.7%, Dow +0.5%) based on expectations of diplomatic de-escalation