General Market News

Iran's oil minister stated that the country's oil exports are continuing normally despite the U.S. canceling a 60-day waiver of oil sanctions last week. Minister Mohsen Paknejad said Iran has maintained mechanisms for years to neutralize the impact of U.S. sanctions and expects no disruption to exports.

• The U.S. cancelled a 60-day waiver of oil sanctions against Iran last week, reimposing restrictions on Iranian oil exports
• Iran's oil ministry claims it has established long-standing mechanisms to circumvent U.S. sanctions and maintain export operations
• The statement comes amid heightened tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global oil transit route

China's smartphone shipments declined 4.3% year-over-year to 66 million units in Q2 2026, marking the fifth consecutive quarterly drop. Rising memory and component costs prompted most manufacturers to raise prices, dampening consumer demand. Huawei and Apple were the only vendors to achieve growth by maintaining steady pricing while competitors increased prices.

• Huawei led the market with 22.6% share and 19.4% shipment growth, while Apple grew 24.4% - both kept prices stable as rivals raised theirs
• Most Android vendors raised prices or reduced budget models due to surging component costs, discouraging consumers from upgrading their devices
• Fading government subsidies that had previously supported demand also contributed to the market downturn in the first half of 2026

China's crude oil imports plunged 41.3% in June 2026 to 7.12 million barrels per day, the lowest level since October 2016, driven by weak domestic demand and export restrictions on refined products amid the Iran war. Refinery utilization rates fell to near 10-year lows at 57.72%, while Middle East imports hit a decade low and Iranian oil imports dropped 40% month-over-month to below 800,000 bpd.

• June imports totaled 29.27 million tons (7.12 million bpd), down 41.3% year-over-year and 12% from May's already depressed levels
• China's refinery run rates fell to 57.72%, down 13.09 percentage points year-over-year, pressured by refined product export restrictions imposed in March to safeguard domestic energy security
• The sharp drop suggests permanent demand loss from China as high oil prices and the country's 'massive EV fleet' demonstrate China can sustain lower oil consumption levels

New Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh is testifying before Congress amid market turmoil, with Asian markets falling 1.2% and Brent crude reaching $85 per barrel. Recent hawkish comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller have increased market expectations for potential rate hikes as soon as this month. Geopolitical tensions, including U.S. military strikes against Iran and potential Strait of Hormuz tariffs, are adding to market volatility.

• Asian markets declined sharply, with MSCI Asia-Pacific index down 1.2%, while Brent crude futures climbed to highest levels since mid-June on Iran tensions and potential 20% U.S. fee on Strait of Hormuz cargo ships
• Warsh faces questions on the Fed's balance sheet plans as hawkish Fed commentary has boosted odds of rate hikes later this month despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty
• Major U.S. bank earnings (JPMorgan, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, Citigroup) and June CPI data are due, which could further influence Fed policy expectations

South Korea raised its 2026 economic growth forecast to 3.0%, the highest in five years, driven by a global AI chip boom and surging semiconductor exports. The government plans to fast-track AI investment projects and increase 2027 spending by at least 10% to over 800 trillion won ($532.73 billion) to support the semiconductor sector. The economy posted its fastest growth in nearly six years last quarter on booming chip exports.

• 2026 GDP growth forecast upgraded to 3.0% from previous 2.0% estimate, marking strongest growth since 2021 and up from 2025's 1.1% pace
• Government will accelerate three mega projects covering semiconductor, AI data centers, and physical AI investments, with 2027 budget increasing by 10%+ to exceed 800 trillion won
• Inflation forecast raised to 2.6% for 2026 (up from 2.1% projection) due to high oil prices, with government targeting per capita income of $50,000 and top-four global exporter status

China's exports surged 27% year-over-year in June 2024, the fastest growth since October 2021, driven by strong global demand for AI hardware and U.S. retailers accelerating orders ahead of potential tariff increases. Imports also jumped 36%, the largest increase since June 2021, both figures significantly exceeding economists' expectations.

• Export growth of 27% far exceeded the forecast of 18.2%, accelerating from May's 19.4% gain, while imports grew 36% versus the expected 24%
• U.S. manufacturers rushed orders before the expiration of Trump's 10% tariff on July 24 and potential additional Section 301 tariffs, boosting U.S.-bound shipments
• The trade surge contrasts with China's domestic weakness, as Q2 GDP growth is expected to slow to 4.5% from 5% in Q1 amid declining consumption and property downturn

The U.S. conducted strikes against Iran for a third consecutive night under President Trump's orders, while Iran retaliated by attacking Gulf nations including the UAE and Bahrain. Iranian missiles hit two Emirati oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, killing one crew member and injuring eight others, escalating tensions in the critical energy waterway that carries a fifth of the world's oil and gas.

• Two UAE tankers (Mombasa and AI Bahiyah) were struck in Omani territorial waters, killing one Indian crew member and injuring eight others, while Bahrain sounded missile-alert sirens as Iran retaliated against American strikes.
• Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz declined week-over-week from July 10-12, with shipowners pausing transit decisions and war risk premiums expected to increase sharply according to Lloyd's List Intelligence.
• The escalation unraveled last month's interim U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement and pushed Brent crude up 2% to $85 per barrel and WTI up 2.3% to $80 amid uncertainty over the vital shipping route.

The Pentagon is immediately suspending Phase 2 of its Cybersecurity Maturity Model Certification (CMMC) program, which was set to take effect November 10, requiring third-party audits for defense contractors. The pause responds to industry complaints that high compliance costs and long audit waits are forcing small and mid-sized suppliers to exit the defense supply chain, narrowing competition. A 60-day review will be conducted by a newly formed CMMC Reform Task Force.

• Program offices will now require only Level 1 or Level 2 self-assessments instead of the mandatory third-party audits that Phase 2 would have imposed
• The Pentagon acknowledged that 'CMMC compliance is forcing innovative companies out of the Defense Industrial Base' and cited 'paralyzing costs' as a barrier to weapons production speed
• A CMMC Reform Task Force will collect industry feedback through a public request for information and deliver recommendations within 60 days

Hydro One Limited, Ontario's largest electricity transmission and distribution utility, will release its second quarter 2026 financial results on August 12, 2026, before market open. The company will host an investment community teleconference at 8 a.m. EDT the same day to discuss results and outlook.

• Hydro One serves 1.5 million customers with $39.7 billion in assets as of December 31, 2025, and generated $9 billion in annual revenues in 2025
• The company invested $3.4 billion in transmission and distribution networks in 2025 and purchased $3.0 billion in goods and services
• Financial results will be accessible via webcast through the Investor Relations section, with a rebroadcast available after the live call

US stocks fell on Monday as tensions between the US and Iran drove oil prices up sharply (WTI +9.4%, Brent +9.6%), raising inflation concerns and pressuring growth-sensitive sectors. The Dow dropped 138 points (-0.26%), while the Nasdaq declined 1.55% led by semiconductor losses. Markets now await key earnings reports, CPI data, and Fed Chair testimony amid elevated geopolitical and inflation risks.

• President Trump announced plans to blockade the Strait of Hormuz and seek 20% reimbursement on cargo, sending oil above $78/barrel and reviving inflation fears that pushed markets to price in at least one 25-basis-point rate hike by year-end
• Semiconductor stocks led declines with SK Hynix falling 6% on debut, Intel down 7%, AMD down 4%, and Sandisk plunging 13% as investors reassessed valuations after the AI-driven rally
• Major bank earnings from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and others kick off this week alongside June CPI, PPI, retail sales data and Fed Chair Warsh testimony before Congress

Fed Governor Christopher Waller warned that the Federal Reserve may need to hike interest rates if this week's inflation data comes in higher than expected. June's Consumer Price Index is expected to show inflation declining to 3.8% yearly, but Waller said multiple months of improvement are needed before inflation concerns ease. The warning marks a shift from earlier expectations of continued rate cuts.

• About 40% of traders now predict a quarter-point rate hike at the Fed's July 29 meeting, a sharp reversal from earlier hopes for continued cuts after three consecutive reductions in 2025
• June CPI is expected to show a 0.1% monthly decline with yearly inflation at 3.8% (down from 4.2%), while PPI is forecast at 6.2% yearly (down from 6.5%)
• War in Iran has disrupted a key maritime route carrying 20% of global oil, pushing energy prices higher and causing inflation to seep into broader economy through food and transportation costs

Robert Minter, Director of Investment Strategy at Abrdn, argues that gold has become a structurally important asset in the global financial system despite recent price consolidation around $4,000 per ounce. He views the recent correction as removal of speculative excess rather than a fundamental weakness, with continued central bank buying supporting gold's evolved role as a core monetary asset amid rising sovereign debt concerns.

• Minter sees recent price weakness as technical and positive, removing speculative length while leaving strongest demand sources (central banks) intact
• Professional investors are viewing $4,000 gold as a buying opportunity to increase allocations rather than a warning sign
• Gold's role has evolved beyond traditional inflation hedge into a core monetary asset as governments globally show no policy to control debt, with Minter noting 'gold continues to be the only currency that isn't somebody else's debt'

Oil prices surged approximately 9% after President Trump announced a naval blockade of Iranian ports and demanded a 20% fee on all cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz. WTI oil climbed above $74.50-$75.00 while Brent oil tested $83.00, driven by fears of supply disruption as tensions escalate in the Middle East with Iran and Houthi involvement.

• Trump's proposed 20% transit fee is 10 times higher than Iran's historical 2% charge, raising concerns among Gulf countries and increasing likelihood of Iranian vessel attacks
• Global oil reserves remain significantly depleted from previous Strait of Hormuz blockades, making another disruption a serious bullish catalyst that could push prices toward April-May 2026 levels
• Natural gas declined to test $2.90 support as recent EIA data showed stocks building faster than expected, despite high demand forecasts for the next seven days

The UN's International Maritime Organization rejected transit fees for the Strait of Hormuz after President Trump demanded ships pay the U.S. 20% of cargo value for Navy protection. The IMO stated there is no legal basis for mandatory tolls in international straits. Iran had also demanded tolls but agreed to suspend them for 60 days under an interim deal with the U.S.

• Trump ordered the U.S. Navy to reimpose a blockade on Iranian ships while demanding 20% of cargo value as reimbursement for protecting other vessels through Hormuz
• International maritime law experts confirm tolls violate the Convention on the International Maritime Organization and treaties guaranteeing unimpeded transit rights through international straits
• Security tensions have escalated with Iran attacking commercial ships, demanding use of northern routes through its waters, while the U.S. Navy escorts vessels through a southern corridor along Oman's coast

The probability of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at its July 29 meeting has surged, with CME's FedWatch tool now showing 46.5% odds (up from 34% Sunday) and prediction platform Kalshi at 36% (up from under 10% earlier this month). The increased likelihood stems from Trump's announcement of reinstating a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and imposing a 20% toll on cargo through the Strait of Hormuz, which sent oil prices jumping over 5% past $75 per barrel.

• Oil prices rose sharply in response to renewed Iran-U.S. tensions, with WTI crude jumping 5.99% to cross $75 per barrel, raising inflation concerns beyond what June CPI data may show
• Fed Governor Christopher Waller stated the central bank 'waited too long' to raise rates amid rising inflation, though he cautioned against overcorrecting with overly aggressive hikes
• Barclays analysis warns that inflation pressures extend beyond energy prices, with lack of demand destruction from elevated prices exacerbating concerns and suggesting data prints 'for the next few months, are not going to look good'

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller cautioned against prematurely raising interest rates despite elevated inflation, warning the Fed should avoid 'fighting the last war' by overreacting to its 2021 mistake of waiting too long to act. He cited new inflation drivers including AI-related demand and tariffs, while noting that well-anchored expectations and a strong labor market provide some buffer as the Fed awaits more data.

• Waller identified artificial intelligence spillovers, 2025 tariffs, and Middle East energy price impacts as current inflation drivers beyond traditional causes
• June CPI data expected to show headline inflation declining to 3.8% from 4.2% and core inflation to 2.8% from 2.9%, though Waller said he needs 'several months' of lower readings before feeling confident
• Markets price in 39% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's late July meeting, as Waller emphasized both avoiding premature tightening and not repeating 2021's delayed response

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped approximately 60% amid escalating conflict between the U.S. and Iran over control of shipping routes. Only 14 ships transited the strait on Sunday compared to 37 the previous week, down from over 100 daily before hostilities began on February 28. Iran is attacking vessels using a U.S.-protected southern route and demanding ships use northern lanes through Iranian waters.

• Traffic through the U.S.-protected southern corridor along Oman's coast has effectively collapsed after repeated Iranian attacks on commercial vessels, with ships increasingly using the northern route through Iranian territorial waters
• The U.S. has launched retaliatory strikes against Iran for the ship attacks, while Tehran has responded by firing on U.S. allies in the Gulf region
• President Trump announced plans to reimpose a naval blockade against Iran and demand ships pay the U.S. 20% of cargo value for protection services

Shein Executive Chairman Donald Tang will step down to an advisory role as the fast-fashion retailer nears completion of its Hong Kong IPO after receiving Chinese regulatory approval. Tang, a Chinese-American billionaire, has served as the company's Western proxy for three years, navigating failed IPO attempts in New York and London. Founder Sky Xu is expected to lead the investor roadshow ahead of the listing.

• Tang was brought in by Sequoia Capital China's Neil Shen to pursue a U.S. listing, but pivoted to London and ultimately Hong Kong after regulatory obstacles and political scrutiny over 'de minimis' customs waivers and forced labor allegations
• The executive chairman faced reputational challenges including a scandal in November when French regulators found child-resembling sex dolls on Shein's marketplace, leading to government crackdown and the closure of the company's Paris store experiment
• There is no fixed timetable for Tang's transition to senior adviser, and it remains unclear whether founder Xu will assume the public-facing role or bring in another external leader

Wall Street enters a critical week with major bank earnings (JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo) reporting Tuesday, alongside key tech companies like ASML, TSMC, and Netflix. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh testifies before Congress while crucial inflation data (CPI and PPI) will shape expectations for the Fed's next policy move, all amid rising Middle East tensions affecting oil prices.

• Major banks report Tuesday offering insights on loan growth, investment banking activity, and consumer health under higher interest rates
• June CPI (Tuesday) and PPI (Wednesday) data expected to show cooling inflation as lower gasoline prices offset other pressures, according to Wells Fargo economists
• Geopolitical tensions between U.S. and Iran have pushed oil prices higher and slowed Strait of Hormuz shipping, though Brent crude remains below $80 per barrel

Energy Transfer LP (ET) has become a trending stock on Zacks.com, driven by investor interest in its business prospects. The company currently holds a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and a Value Style Score of A, indicating it trades at a discount to peers. For the current fiscal year, ET is expected to deliver earnings of $1.43 per share, representing an 18.2% increase year-over-year.

• Revenue is projected to surge 41.7% for the current fiscal year to $121.19 billion, with next year's consensus at $126.38 billion (+4.3% growth)
• The stock has consistently beaten consensus estimates, surpassing EPS and revenue expectations multiple times over the last four quarters
• ET's Value Style Score of A suggests the stock is trading at a discount relative to peers, though the Zacks Rank #3 indicates near-term performance may align with the broader market