Traders are making big moves ahead of these earnings reports due Thursday

CNBC | May 21, 2026 at 10:16 AM UTC
Bullish 80% Confidence Majority Agreement
Read Original Article

Key Points

  • Walmart led options volume with 154,000 contracts traded Wednesday; stock up 16% year-to-date, nearly double the S&P 500, as inflation drives value-seeking consumers
  • Advance Auto Parts shows strongest bullish positioning with call volume nearly 3x puts and implied move exceeding 11%, despite stock already up 32% year-to-date
  • Brokerage sector under pressure as Webull down 15% YTD with peers Robinhood down 34% and Interactive Brokers down 11%, though traders bought 3x more calls than puts

AI Summary

Summary: Pre-Earnings Options Activity Signals Major Thursday Moves

Options traders are positioning heavily ahead of Thursday earnings reports across multiple sectors, with significant implied volatility indicating expected price swings.

Key Companies and Activity:

Walmart (WMT): The retail giant leads options volume with over 154,000 contracts traded Wednesday. The stock is up 16% year-to-date—nearly double the broader market—as inflation-conscious consumers prioritize value shopping. Despite more puts trading by volume, calls attracted greater premium spending, suggesting mixed directional sentiment.

Nio (NIO): The Chinese EV maker has gained 9% year-to-date, outperforming the Hang-Seng Index (down 2%) and the broader Chinese equity market. Specific options positioning details weren't provided, but the stock shows relative strength in a weak regional market.

Webull: The trading app platform is down 15% year-to-date and over 40% from its 52-week high, reflecting broader brokerage sector weakness. Competitors face similar pressures, with one rival down 34% and another down 11%. Options traders showed bullish bias with call volume exceeding puts by more than 3:1. The implied move suggests an 8.5% post-earnings swing.

Advance Auto Parts (AAP): The top performer on the list, up 32% year-to-date, shows strong bullish positioning with call volume nearly triple put volume (2,000 calls vs. 800 puts). The stock faces the largest expected move at over 11%—exceeding its typical 9.5% quarterly swing.

Market Implications:

Heavy options activity indicates heightened uncertainty and potential volatility across retail, EV, fintech, and auto parts sectors, with traders positioning for significant post-earnings moves.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Neutral 75%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bullish 75%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 90%
Consensus Bullish 80%