Traders on Kalshi indicate that May's jobs report will top Wall Street expectations

• Kalshi traders put 49% odds on over 100,000 jobs added and 40% chance of surpassing 110,000, up from 32% probability before April's report was released
• Expected 90,000 May jobs would represent a decline from April's 115,000 and March's 185,000, continuing a slowdown trend with six-month average of only 55,000 monthly gains
• Hourly earnings expected to rise 3.4% annually (down from 3.6%) and 0.3% month-over-month, with the jobs data potentially influencing the Fed's June policy decision under new leadership

Summary: May Jobs Report Expected to Beat Wall Street Consensus

Traders on prediction market Kalshi indicate May's nonfarm payrolls report will likely exceed Wall Street expectations when released Friday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The Dow Jones consensus forecasts 90,000 new jobs, representing a decline from April's 115,000 and March's 185,000 (2026's highest reading).

Key Probability Metrics:

• Kalshi traders assign 56% probability the report will beat consensus
• 49% chance of exceeding 100,000 new jobs (up from 32% to 45% probability jump following April's report)
• 40% chance of surpassing 110,000 new jobs

Alternative Forecasts:

RBC Economics projects a more optimistic 99,000 jobs added with unemployment holding steady at 4.3%. The firm notes that while the labor market shows "solid footing," job creation remains limited, averaging just 55,000 monthly gains over the past six months.

Wage Growth Expectations:

• Annual hourly earnings projected to rise 3.4% (down from April's 3.6%)
• Month-over-month earnings expected up 0.3% (versus 0.2% previously)

Market Implications:

This jobs report carries heightened significance as the first under new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's leadership, arriving ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC meeting. While markets anticipate the Fed will hold rates steady, the employment data could influence this decision. The report will provide critical insight into labor market momentum and potential monetary policy direction as job creation shows signs of moderating from earlier 2026 levels.