Column: why markets seem unfazed by the US-Iran conflict

• Oil prices spiked above $115 initially but have since traded in a $20 range for months, despite the blocked Strait of Hormuz and damaged energy infrastructure
• The S&P 500 recovered within a week of its 8% March decline, surpassed its January all-time high above 7,000, and has added roughly 8% since then
• The US dollar gained only 1.6% from pre-war levels, while gold and silver fell 18% and 25% respectively from March highs, showing mixed safe-haven behavior

Summary

Key Event: A joint US-Israeli military attack on Iran in late February 2026 sparked initial market volatility, but financial markets have largely shrugged off the ongoing three-month conflict.

Market Performance:

• Oil: WTI crude spiked $7 initially, surging to $115 before settling into a $20 trading range despite the blocked Strait of Hormuz and damaged energy infrastructure
• Equities: S&P 500 dropped 8% in March but recovered within a week, surpassing its January all-time high above 7,000 and gaining another 8% since—led by technology stocks
• US Dollar: Dollar Index rose modestly from 97.45 to ~99.00 (1.6% gain), cited as a "flight to quality" move
• Precious Metals: Gold declined 18% and silver 25% from early March highs, underperforming their traditional safe-haven status

Key Observations:

The conflict has disrupted critical infrastructure including Qatar's LNG facilities and global shipping through Hormuz, draining oil inventories. Initial consensus predicted resolution by mid-April, but the war continues into its fourth month. Despite ongoing geopolitical risks, investors demonstrate strong FOMO (fear of missing out) sentiment, driving a tech-led bull market.

Market Implications:

The analysis suggests investors are prioritizing growth opportunities over geopolitical concerns. Peace rumors continue to drive rallies, though previous negotiations have failed. The disconnect between physical energy disruptions and relatively stable oil prices, combined with equity market strength, indicates markets have either fully priced in war risks or are dismissing them entirely in favor of momentum trading.