Video Analysis

Danielle DiMartino Booth discusses the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rates, highlighting the dissent from Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller who preferred a rate cut. She argues that inflation is in 'free fall' and consumers are 'really stretched,' suggesting the Fed is misreading the economic situation by shifting focus back to inflation concerns instead of addressing weakening consumer spending and private employment.

• FED pauses interest rates at 3.50-3.75%, with two dissents favoring a 25 basis point cut.
• Real-time inflation (Truflation) is reported at 1.15% and in 'free fall,' indicating disinflation.
• Consumers are spending less, even on essential items like dog food, signaling economic strain.

Jerome Powell offers advice to his successor as Fed Chair, emphasizing the importance of staying out of elected politics and actively engaging with Congress to maintain democratic legitimacy. He also praises the dedication and qualification of the Federal Reserve staff.

• Stay out of elected politics and avoid being pulled into political discourse.
• Actively engage with Congress as an 'affirmative, regular obligation' to earn democratic legitimacy.
• Recognize and appreciate the highly qualified and dedicated professionals within the Fed staff.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell expressed surprise at the continued strength of the U.S. economy, noting it has 'once again' exceeded expectations. He attributed this resilience to robust consumer spending and significant investment in AI data centers, indicating that overall economic growth is on a solid footing.

• Powell highlighted that the U.S. economy's strength has repeatedly surprised the Federal Open Market Committee.
• Key drivers of this strength include resilient consumer spending, despite negative consumer surveys, and the buildout of AI data centers.
• The Fed Chair concluded that the economy's overall growth is on a solid footing.

Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, emphasized the critical importance of central bank independence for every advanced economy and democracy. He stated that this institutional arrangement serves the public interest by ensuring monetary policy decisions are made for the broad public good, free from political influence during election cycles.

• Powell highlighted that central bank independence is a common and beneficial practice across advanced economies and democracies.
• He clarified that independence is intended to serve the public by preventing monetary policy from being used for political gain.
• Powell expressed confidence in the Federal Reserve's ability to maintain its independence, noting that losing it would severely damage the institution's credibility.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated there was broad support within the committee to hold interest rates steady, despite some dissenting votes for a cut. He emphasized a data-dependent approach for future decisions, noting that risks to both inflation and employment have somewhat diminished, and the committee will continue to weigh these factors meeting by meeting.

• Broad support within the FOMC for holding interest rates steady at the current meeting.
• Some committee members dissented, advocating for an immediate rate cut.
• The Fed is not setting a specific 'test' for future rate cuts, opting for a meeting-by-meeting, data-dependent approach.
• Upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment have both 'diminished a bit'.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the U.S. economy expanded at a solid pace last year and is entering 2026 on a 'firm footing.' He reiterated the Fed's focus on maximum employment and stable prices, noting that while job gains have remained low, the unemployment rate shows signs of stabilization, and inflation remains somewhat elevated.

• U.S. economy expanded at a solid pace last year and is on 'firm footing' entering 2026.
• Fed remains focused on dual mandate goals of maximum employment and stable prices.
• Unemployment rate shows signs of stabilization, but inflation remains 'somewhat elevated'.

Jerome Powell, Federal Reserve Chair, was questioned about recent volatility and downward movements in the US dollar. He firmly stated that the Federal Reserve does not comment on the dollar or exchange rates, clarifying that this responsibility falls under the Treasury Department's purview. Powell emphasized that the Fed's focus remains on monetary policy.

• Jerome Powell explicitly declined to comment on recent movements in the US dollar.
• He stated that commenting on the dollar and exchange rates is the role of the Treasury Department, not the Federal Reserve.
• Powell reiterated that the Federal Reserve's primary focus is on monetary policy.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addresses questions regarding his attendance at a Supreme Court hearing, defending it as appropriate due to the case's significance to the Fed. He also declines to comment on his future at the Federal Reserve or a DOJ probe, stating these are not topics for the current press conference.

• Powell defends his attendance at a Supreme Court hearing, citing its importance to the Fed's history and precedent set by former Chair Paul Volcker.
• Powell declines to elaborate on a previous statement regarding political controversies or discuss whether he is concerned about drawing the Fed into political debates.
• Powell states he has no information regarding his decision to remain as a Federal Reserve governor after his term as chair concludes in May.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell discussed uneven consumer spending, noting that higher-income households are driving the economy while lower-income consumers struggle with affordability due to rising prices. He reiterated the Fed's commitment to achieving price stability by bringing inflation down to 2%. Powell also highlighted concerns about the unsustainable U.S. federal budget deficit and the halt in labor supply growth due to immigration, while acknowledging AI's potential long-term impact on productivity and jobs.

• Consumer spending is uneven, with higher-income households benefiting from asset value increases, while lower-income consumers are economizing due to persistent inflation.
• The Fed's primary objective is price stability, and bringing inflation back to 2% is crucial for improving affordability for all households.
• Powell stated that the U.S. federal budget deficit is 'uncontroversially on an unsustainable path' and that growth in labor supply has halted due to a 'very sudden stop in immigration'.
• AI is expected to both eliminate and create jobs, with technology historically increasing productivity and wages over time, though short-term disruptions are possible.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell strongly defended central bank independence, stating it is 'very important' and a common practice among advanced democracies. He argued that this institutional arrangement prevents the politicization of monetary policy, ensuring decisions are made for the broad public good rather than short-term political gain, which is crucial for maintaining the institution's credibility.

• Fed independence is essential for serving the public, not for protecting policymakers.
• It is a common and effective institutional arrangement in advanced economies and democracies worldwide.
• Independence prevents direct elected official control over monetary policy, safeguarding against its use for political purposes during election cycles.
• Losing this independence would severely undermine the Fed's credibility and its ability to effectively serve the public.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell discusses the impact of tariffs on prices, noting that most of the goods price inflation is due to tariffs, which he considers a one-time effect. He highlights that core PCE inflation, excluding tariffs, is near 2% and that services are showing ongoing disinflation. This suggests a potential path for future policy loosening if tariff effects subside.

• Most of the 'overrun' in goods prices is attributed to tariffs, viewed as a one-time price increase.
• Core PCE inflation, excluding tariff effects on goods, is running 'just a bit above 2%'.
• Ongoing disinflation is observed across all categories of services, which is considered a 'healthy development'.
• If tariff effects peak and subside, it could signal an opportunity for the Fed to 'loosen policy'.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced the committee's broad support for holding interest rates steady at the current meeting. He noted that both upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment have diminished, indicating a more balanced economic outlook. Future rate decisions will be made meeting by meeting, based on incoming data and evolving economic conditions.

• Broad support within the committee for holding interest rates at the current meeting.
• Risks to both inflation (upside) and employment (downside) have diminished.
• Future decisions on rate cuts will be data-dependent and made on a meeting-by-meeting basis.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the critical importance of the central bank's independence from political influence. He stated that this institutional arrangement, common in advanced democracies, ensures monetary policy decisions are made for the broad public good, free from electoral cycle pressures, and is vital for maintaining the Fed's credibility.

• Powell asserts that the Fed's independence is an institutional arrangement that has 'served the people well' globally.
• He highlights that independence prevents direct elected official control over monetary policy, safeguarding against politically motivated economic manipulation.
• Maintaining this separation is crucial for the Fed's credibility and for making decisions based on what's best for the 'wide public', not specific groups.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell explained his attendance at the Supreme Court's Lisa Cook case hearing, stating it's 'perhaps the most important legal case in the Fed's 113-year history'. He cited historical precedent for his attendance and declined to respond to criticism from other officials regarding his presence.

• Powell attended the Supreme Court hearing on the Lisa Cook case, which he considers 'perhaps the most important legal case in the Fed's 113-year history'.
• He declined to respond to criticism from other officials, stating it's not appropriate.
• Powell noted that former Fed Chair Paul Volcker also attended a Supreme Court case in 1985, setting a precedent.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell announced the committee's decision to maintain the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%. He stated that this policy normalization should help stabilize the labor market and allow inflation to resume its downward trend toward 2% once tariff effects have passed. Powell emphasized that future policy adjustments will be data-dependent and not on a preset course.

• The Federal Funds Rate target range was maintained at 3.5% to 3.75%.
• Policy rate has been lowered by 75 basis points since September, bringing it within a 'neutral' range.
• The Fed expects policy normalization to stabilize the labor market and guide inflation toward 2%.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell announced that future monetary policy decisions, including interest rate adjustments, will be made on a 'meeting-by-meeting' basis. He emphasized that policy is not on a preset course and will be guided by incoming data, the evolving economic outlook, and the balance of risks.

• Fed will make policy decisions on a 'meeting-by-meeting' basis.
• Decisions will be based on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
• Monetary policy is not on a preset course.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed his attendance at a Supreme Court hearing for the Lisa Cook case, stating it is 'perhaps the most important legal case in the Fed's 113 year history.' He declined to respond to criticism from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding his presence.

• Jerome Powell attended the Supreme Court hearing for the Lisa Cook case.
• Powell described the Lisa Cook case as 'perhaps the most important legal case in the Fed's 113 year history.'
• Powell chose not to respond to criticism from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent concerning his attendance.

The Federal Reserve decided to hold its key interest rate steady after a series of cuts, citing an improved economic outlook. The current monetary policy stance is deemed appropriate to promote progress toward maximum employment and 2% inflation goals.

• Fed holds key interest rate steady, unchanged from previous levels.
• The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to leave the policy rate unchanged.
• The Fed had previously lowered the policy rate by 75 basis points over the prior three meetings.
• The current stance of monetary policy is considered appropriate to achieve maximum employment and 2% inflation goals.

Michael Sansoterra of Silvant Capital remains bullish on big tech, expecting continued strong performance driven by robust fundamentals and free cash flow. He emphasizes that while AI introduces new competitive dynamics, these companies are well-positioned to monetize AI and will likely see individual successes rather than a collective 'Gemini problem'.

• Large-cap tech is expected to exceed expectations due to strong earnings and free cash flow, despite some being 'flat' recently.
• Current challenges like Microsoft's compute power demand or Meta's capex justification are company-specific, not indicative of a broader 'Gemini problem'.
• AI is intensifying competition among tech giants, but they are in a 'land grab' phase, focusing on efficient spending and maximizing capacity.
• Individual companies within the 'Magnificent 7' will likely continue to perform well in their respective lanes, with winners and losers emerging based on execution.

The Federal Reserve announced its decision to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75%, with two members dissenting from the vote. The accompanying statement indicated an upgrade in economic activity to a 'solid pace' and a shift in the Fed's focus from job market conditions back to inflation.

• The Federal Reserve paused interest rates, keeping them unchanged at 3.50-3.75%.
• Two members, Stephen Miron and Christopher Waller, dissented from the decision.
• The Fed's statement upgraded economic activity from a 'moderate pace' to a 'solid pace'.
• The committee signaled a shift in its focus from job market conditions back to inflation.