General Market News

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the PCE index, rose 2.8% year-over-year in January, with core inflation climbing to 3.1%, the highest in nearly two years. Monthly core prices jumped 0.4% for the second consecutive month, a pace that would exceed the Fed's 2% annual target if sustained. The data precedes additional inflationary pressure expected from the Iran conflict that began Feb. 28, which has caused oil prices to surge over 40%.

• Core PCE inflation accelerated to 3.1% annually in January, up from 3.0% in December, with monthly increases of 0.4% suggesting inflation remained sticky before geopolitical disruptions
• The Iran war that began Feb. 28 has shut down the Strait of Hormuz, cutting one-fifth of global oil supply and driving gas prices to $3.60 per gallon from under $3, likely to spike inflation further in March and April
• Consumer spending rose a solid 0.4% in January while incomes also increased 0.4%, with after-tax incomes jumping 0.9% due to Social Security cost-of-living adjustments, indicating consumers maintained spending without depleting savings

U.S. Q4 2025 GDP growth was revised sharply downward to 0.7% in the second estimate, half the initial reading, bringing full-year 2025 GDP to 2.1% versus 2.4% in 2024. The decline was driven by weaker consumption and a government shutdown, while inflation indicators remained elevated with core PCE reaching 3.1% year-over-year, the highest since March 2024. January durable goods orders came in flat at 0.0%, missing expectations of 1.3% growth.

• Q4 2025 GDP revised down to 0.7% from 1.4% initial estimate, with consumption at 2.0% and Q4 Price Index jumping to 3.8%, well above the Fed's 2.0% target
• Core PCE rose to 3.1% year-over-year in January, up from 3.0% and marking the second consecutive month with a 3-handle after spending most of 2025 at 2.8% or lower
• January durable goods orders flat at 0.0% versus 1.3% expected, with non-defense ex-aircraft orders also flat and shipments declining 0.1%

US stocks traded mixed while oil prices held above $100 per barrel as investors reacted to escalating conflict in Iran and a temporary White House lift on Russian energy sanctions until April 11. The sanctions pause aims to ease price pressures from Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global oil supply, though analysts warn prices could remain elevated.

• National average gasoline prices surged to $3.63 per gallon, up more than 20% in the past month, as Brent crude topped $100 and Iranian officials warned prices could spike to $200 per barrel
• Iran's new supreme leader vowed to maintain the Strait of Hormuz blockade after US-Israeli strikes, with at least six foreign vessels reportedly attacked in under 48 hours
• The temporary Russian sanctions lift applies only to oil already in transit and will not provide significant financial benefit to Russia, lasting through April 11

U.S. stock markets declined for a second consecutive week as oil prices surged to multi-year highs amid Iran war concerns and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Despite an initial plunge from weekend peaks near $120/barrel, crude oil rallied back above $95, with Brent topping $100. Oracle and Nvidia provided support to AI infrastructure stocks through strong earnings and new investments, while broader market weakness persisted with major indexes trading near 200-day moving averages.

• Oil prices hit highest closes since late 2022 after tanker attacks in Iraq and the Strait of Hormuz; IEA announced record 400 million barrel release from strategic reserves including 172 million from the U.S.
• Oracle jumped on strong earnings (EPS up 21% to $1.79) and guidance that eased AI spending concerns; Nvidia announced investments in Thinking Machines Lab and $2 billion in data center operator Nebius Group
• Mixed economic data showed core CPI inflation holding near 5-year low of 2.5%, but core PCE rounded up to 3.1%; Q4 GDP growth was revised down sharply to 0.7% from prior estimates

The US economy grew at just 0.7% annually in Q4 2025, half the initial estimate and sharply down from 4.4% in Q3, primarily due to a government shutdown that slashed federal spending. The downgrade surprised economists who had expected stronger revisions, raising concerns about economic momentum heading into 2025.

• Federal government spending plunged 16.7% due to the shutdown, reducing Q4 growth by 1.16 percentage points
• Consumer spending growth slowed to 2% from 3.5% in Q3, while exports fell 3.3% and underlying economic strength grew just 1.9% versus 2.9% previously
• Full-year 2025 GDP growth was 2.1%, down from 2.8% in 2024, while job creation averaged fewer than 10,000 monthly—the weakest hiring outside recessions since 2002

JPMorgan projects crude oil supply cuts will reach nearly 12 million barrels per day by late March 2026 due to a two-week disruption of tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, caused by U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. The crisis has already reduced production by 6.5 million bpd, creating a severe global shortage as demand exceeds supply by approximately 7 million bpd.

• Commercial tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles one-fifth of global oil supply, remains extremely limited with most vessels now Iranian-flagged heading to China
• Global markets face severe shortages of diesel, jet fuel, LPG, and naphtha, with Europe particularly exposed after banning Russian imports and losing access to 5 million bpd of refined products that typically transit the affected waterway
• Approximately 2 million bpd of Middle Eastern refining capacity is offline due to export constraints and infrastructure attacks, with limited spare global capacity likely driving higher product prices rather than increased output

Risk-off sentiment driven by the Iran conflict is severely impacting small-cap markets, particularly London's AIM exchange, by causing capital flight to safe havens and effectively shutting down fundraising channels. The AIM All-Share index experienced meaningful declines as investors prioritize capital preservation over returns, with smaller companies facing heightened vulnerability due to their thinner trading volumes and reliance on external financing. This market dynamic has prolonged a fundraising drought that began with the Ukraine war four years ago.

• Small-cap companies are disproportionately affected in risk-off environments due to narrower revenue streams, lower trading volumes, and heavier reliance on external financing, making them first targets for investor position cuts
• AIM-listed companies face a fundraising crisis as new listings slow to a trickle, compounding a capital drought that has persisted since the Ukraine war outbreak four years ago
• Notable exceptions include ATOME, which secured $420 million in debt financing with 25% on concessional below-market terms, and 88Energy, which rose 77% after clearing a stock overhang from previous fundraising rounds

US stocks rallied on Friday with the Dow climbing 301 points (0.7%) as easing oil prices and assurances about the Strait of Hormuz blockade lifted sentiment. The gains came despite sticky inflation data showing core PCE rising to 3.1% year-over-year and a sharply downward-revised Q4 2024 GDP estimate of 0.7%. Adobe stock plunged over 8% in pre-market trading after CEO Shantanu Narayen announced his exit plan after 18 years.

• Core PCE inflation climbed to 3.1% year-over-year in January, up from 3.0% in December, keeping Federal Reserve rate-cut expectations uncertain
• Q4 2024 GDP growth was revised down significantly to 0.7% from an initial estimate of 1.4%, representing a steep slowdown from the prior quarter's 4.4% growth
• Adobe shares dropped over 8% after CEO Shantanu Narayen's exit announcement, while defense and energy stocks drew continued investor attention amid Middle East tensions

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The U.S. economy grew at just 0.7% in the fourth quarter according to the Commerce Department's revised estimate, significantly slower than the initially reported 1.4% growth rate. This downward revision also missed economist expectations of 1.4% growth, indicating weaker economic momentum than previously believed.

• Fourth-quarter GDP growth was revised down from 1.4% to 0.7%, a substantial downward adjustment
• The revised figure fell short of the 1.4% growth rate that economists had forecast
• This represents the Bureau of Economic Analysis's second estimate of fourth-quarter economic performance

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, rose 2.8% annually in January 2026, showing persistent price pressures. Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, increased 3.1% year-over-year, remaining well above the Fed's 2% target. The data suggests inflation continues to challenge policymakers' efforts to bring prices under control.

• Headline PCE rose 0.3% monthly and 2.8% annually, slightly below December's 2.9% but still 40% above the Fed's 2% target
• Core PCE increased 0.4% monthly and 3.1% year-over-year, up from December's 3% reading, indicating underlying inflation pressures remain elevated
• The persistent inflation readings complicate the Fed's monetary policy decisions as officials rely on PCE data to guide interest rate adjustments

The U.S. fourth-quarter GDP growth was revised sharply downward to just 0.7%, significantly below the consensus estimate of 1.5%. Meanwhile, January core inflation measured by the PCE price index came in at 3.1%, meeting expectations, while headline inflation was 2.9%.

• Fourth-quarter GDP revised down to 0.7%, less than half the expected 1.5% growth rate
• January core PCE inflation held at 3.1% as expected, with headline inflation at 2.9%
• The significant GDP downward revision signals potential economic slowdown despite persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target

Emerging market bond and equity funds experienced reduced inflows in the week ending March 11, 2026, as investors fled to safer assets amid the Iran conflict and rising energy prices. The conflict threatens to end a 'goldilocks' period for EM assets, with analysts warning of potential stagflation risks, though year-to-date EM debt funds still show record $21 billion inflows.

• Global-mandated EM funds saw $1.1 billion in outflows in the past week, reversing the prior week's $3.2 billion in inflows, according to Morgan Stanley citing EPFR data
• Barclays warns that spiking energy prices from the Middle East conflict have shifted the narrative from a 'goldilocks' environment to potential stagflation (low growth and high inflation)
• Despite recent volatility, EM debt funds have attracted a record $21 billion year-to-date, though future performance depends on the duration of energy price pressures

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, rose 0.4% in January, pushing the 12-month inflation rate up to 3.1% from 3.0%, slightly hotter than economists' expectations. This data reinforces expectations for an extended Fed rate-cut pause, with market odds now showing less than 1% chance of a cut at the upcoming Fed meeting. S&P 500 futures rose modestly despite the inflation news, aided by a drop in oil prices after the U.S. relaxed Russian oil sanctions.

• Core PCE inflation climbed to 3.1% year-over-year, exceeding the forecast of steady 3.0%, while the monthly increase of 0.4% (0.363% unrounded) matched expectations
• Market-implied odds of a Fed rate cut have collapsed to less than 1% for the March meeting and just 28% through June, with a coin-flip probability not reached until September
• Fourth-quarter GDP was sharply revised downward to 0.7% annualized growth from 1.4%, reflecting weaker exports, consumer spending, and government expenditures

U.S. stock futures pointed to gains on March 13, 2026, led by the Dow Jones rising 0.3%, as oil prices retreated below $100 per barrel amid developments in the ongoing Middle East conflict. Brent crude fell approximately 2% to below $99 after India reported an oil tanker exiting the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns about supply disruptions.

• Brent crude dropped below $99 per barrel and WTI futures fell 2.2% to $93.64 after briefly trading above $100 for the first time since August 2022
• Futures indicated gains of 0.3% for the Dow Jones with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq tracking close behind as markets traded on headlines from the two-week-old Middle East conflict
• European markets reversed morning losses with London's FTSE 100 up 0.2% while Asian markets closed lower, with Seoul's Kospi down 1.7% and Tokyo's Nikkei falling 1.2%

Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 after Iran's supreme leader threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, sending stocks tumbling with the Dow falling over 700 points below 47,000. The escalating conflict has reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts from three to possibly just one in 2026, while investors await January's PCE inflation data.

• Brent crude climbed 9.22% to close above $100 per barrel; U.S. plans naval escorts for tankers through the Strait of Hormuz 'as soon as militarily possible', potentially with an international coalition
• Fed rate cut expectations slashed from two to three cuts this year down to only one expected in December, as energy price surge raises inflation concerns ahead of Friday's PCE data release
• Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen announced he will step down once a successor is named, while Adobe shares fell over 7% in premarket trading despite beating Q1 earnings expectations with 12% revenue growth

US stock futures edged slightly higher on Friday as investors awaited key PCE inflation and GDP data, but major indexes remained on track for weekly losses. Oil prices near $100 due to Middle East tensions are raising inflation concerns, while stress in the private credit market intensified with Morgan Stanley halting fund redemptions.

• S&P 500 headed for 1% weekly decline, Dow down 1.7%, despite modest Friday futures gains of about 0.3%
• PCE inflation expected to show 2.9% headline and 3.1% core year-over-year increases; oil near $100/barrel as Middle East conflict persists despite US intervention efforts
• Private credit market stress growing with Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and Blue Owl halting redemptions; traders now expect only one Fed rate cut in 2026 versus two before conflict

London's FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indexes fell on Friday, heading for a second consecutive weekly loss, as the Middle East conflict drove oil prices above $100 per barrel and raised inflation concerns. The escalating situation has prompted markets to abandon expectations for a March rate cut from the Bank of England, with major banks now delaying their easing forecasts. UK economic data showing flat GDP growth in January has compounded investor worries about the outlook.

• Oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel due to Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, boosting energy stocks like BP and Shell but raising inflation fears that could keep UK interest rates elevated
• Money markets erased March rate cut expectations, with BofA, Goldman Sachs, Standard Chartered, and Morgan Stanley all pushing back their BoE easing forecasts to June or later
• HSBC and Standard Chartered shares fell 1% each due to their significant Gulf region exposure, while UK GDP stalled in January with weak services performance

U.S. markets posted their worst day since the Iran war began as oil prices surged past $100 per barrel amid concerns about a shuttered Strait of Hormuz and escalating Middle East conflict. Despite historic volatility in energy markets, including a record $35 intraday swing in Brent crude and the largest-ever IEA reserve release of 400 million barrels, oil remains elevated with warnings it could reach $200.

• Brent crude experienced record volatility with a $35 intraday move, approaching $120 before falling below $90, then settling back above $100 despite the IEA's unprecedented 400-million-barrel emergency reserve release
• U.S. average gasoline prices are rising sharply as of Wednesday, with Asia facing the greatest risk due to heavy reliance on Middle East energy imports, particularly refined fuel products
• Major central banks including the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England meet next week to address what is shaping up to be the biggest crisis since the pandemic, with markets focused on how policymakers will respond to the oil shock

The United States issued a 30-day waiver allowing countries to purchase sanctioned Russian oil currently at sea, aimed at stabilizing global energy markets disrupted by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged the move as an attempt to stabilize energy markets, stating that Russia and the U.S. share common interests in this regard.

• The waiver represents the second major rollback of Ukraine war-related U.S. sanctions in just over one week
• The move follows U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran that paralyzed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, roiling global energy markets
• Peskov stated that market stabilization is impossible without significant volumes of Russian oil, warning of risks that the global energy crisis could escalate