Iran focus at Trump-Xi summit may delay progress on tariffs, rare earths

• Boeing and Apple CEOs are among those expected to attend, with Boeing anticipated to seal its first large order from China in nearly a decade during the summit
• Both countries are moderating their confrontational stance on tariffs and rare earths, while China was the first major country to retaliate against Trump administration tariffs announced in April 2025
• An end to the Iran war would provide 'great relief to global business' and be considered a major success for the summit, though recent attacks have complicated peace efforts

Summary: Trump-Xi Summit to Focus on Iran, Potentially Delaying Trade Progress

The upcoming May 14-15 summit between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping will likely prioritize the Iran war over pressing economic issues like tariffs and rare earth supplies, according to sources familiar with the matter.

Key Developments:

• Smaller U.S. Delegation: The White House declined China's invitation for industry-specific CEO meetings to avoid appearing too close to Beijing. As of Tuesday, only about two dozen executives were proposed to join Trump's trip, far fewer than the nearly 30 CEOs who accompanied him to China in 2017, when deals worth over $250 billion were signed.

• Boeing and Citigroup: CEOs from Boeing and Citigroup are among those expected to attend. Boeing is anticipated to secure its first major China order in nearly a decade during the summit.

• Iran Takes Priority: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed Iran will dominate discussions. An end to the Iran conflict would provide "great relief to global business," according to Chinese Academy of Social Sciences director Hai Zhao.

• Limited Trade Progress Expected: While some deals on U.S. soybeans and Boeing aircraft are anticipated, substantial progress on tariffs and rare earth export controls appears unlikely. Both nations have recently moderated their stances on tariffs and semiconductor restrictions.

Market Implications:

The summit's focus on geopolitical issues may delay resolution of critical trade tensions. China, the first major country to retaliate against Trump's April 2025 tariffs, seeks discussions on tariffs, Taiwan, and technology restrictions. Changes to China's rare earth export controls would have global ramifications beyond U.S.-China relations.

Analysts suggest the meeting may "solidify the advantages China has gained over the past year."