Here's what to expect from Friday's release of the April jobs report

• The 12-month average job gain stands at only 22,000, and excluding health care, the economy has seen a net loss of jobs
• Wage growth shows stark inequality: the top one-third of earners saw 6% after-tax wage gains in April while the bottom third gained only 1.5%, representing a real income loss given inflation
• The Federal Reserve faces conflicting signals between stable 'hard data' like jobless claims and softer indicators suggesting continued labor market cooling, with investors betting the Fed will remain on hold through the year

Summary: April Jobs Report Preview

Key Expectations:

The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release April employment data on Friday, May 8 at 8:30 a.m. ET. Economists forecast a modest gain of just 55,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 4.3%. While this represents weak growth compared to recent years, it's considered sufficient to maintain labor market stability.

Labor Market Conditions:

The 12-month average job growth stands at only 22,000, with the economy showing net job losses when excluding healthcare sector gains. March exceeded expectations as the strongest month since December 2024, but overall momentum remains subdued. The current environment is characterized as a "low-hire, low-fire" market—cooling but resilient.

Income Disparity Concerns:

Bank of America Institute data reveals significant wage growth inequality. The top one-third of earners saw 6% after-tax wage gains in April, while the bottom third experienced just 1.5% growth—effectively a net loss given inflation rates. Average hourly earnings are projected at 3.8% annual growth, masking this divergence. Additionally, smaller businesses are hiring at higher rates than larger firms over the past three months.

Federal Reserve Implications:

The mixed signals present challenges for Fed policymakers, who remain divided on interest rate policy. New York Fed President John Williams noted "conflicting signs" between stable jobless claims and soft consumer sentiment data, suggesting "increasing labor market slack."

Investors expect elevated inflation combined with labor market stability will keep the Fed on hold through year-end. Williams described current monetary policy as "well-positioned" for existing conditions.