General Market News

U.S. stock futures pulled back Thursday morning, erasing some of the prior session's gains as Middle East ceasefire optimism faded. Brent crude held above $97 per barrel due to supply concerns, with only three ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday while roughly 800 tankers remain waiting. Investors are awaiting key economic data including jobless claims, PCE inflation, and revised Q4 GDP.

• Dow futures down 0.4%, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures off 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, reversing Wednesday's relief rally
• Only 3 ships passed through Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday with approximately 800 tankers waiting, supporting oil prices above $97/barrel
• Applied Digital shares fell in premarket despite earnings beat due to lack of new hyperscaler deals; $22 billion auction of 30-year Treasurys scheduled

Swiss-based quantum technology company Terra Quantum plans to list on Nasdaq later this year through a SPAC merger with Mountain Lake Acquisition Corp. II at a $3.25 billion valuation. The company, founded in 2019, counts the U.S. Air Force among its clients and has collaborated with global firms including Siemens, Unilever, HSBC, and BBVA. The listing will fund product development and acquisitions as the company seeks to capitalize on U.S. leadership in the quantum technology sector.

• The company chose a U.S. listing because America is 'the powerhouse and the benchmark' for quantum technology and has led in setting regulatory standards
• Terra Quantum has worked with major clients across defense, finance, pharmaceuticals, and logistics on applications including drone design and derivatives pricing
• Founder and CEO Markus Pflitsch will remain a major shareholder, and the company will generate recurring revenue from licensing its large library of IP-protected algorithms

Global markets paused their relief rally on Thursday as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire showed signs of fragility, with both sides disputing terms of the agreement. Oil prices jumped back above $98 per barrel amid renewed uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz closure, while equities and Treasuries retreated. Investors await U.S. February PCE inflation data expected to show 0.4% monthly gains, even before the latest energy price spike.

• Brent and WTI crude topped $98 per barrel as Iran warned vessels in the Strait of Hormuz would be 'targeted and destroyed' without permission, with daily shipping traffic falling to less than 10% of historical averages
• Asian equities declined with Japan's Nikkei and South Korea's KOSPI both falling after multi-day gains, while European futures opened in the red and the dollar traded mixed
• Fed minutes revealed 'many participants' still favor rate cuts despite some policymakers advocating a pause, with 'most' seeing potential risks to economic growth from the conflict

Goldman Sachs strategist Peter Oppenheimer recommends big tech stocks as the best buy for April 2026, citing improved valuations following a sector-wide downturn. The technology sector's price-to-earnings-to-growth ratio has dropped below 1, indicating undervaluation, while Q1 earnings reports from major tech firms show continued strong business performance despite stock price declines.

• The technology sector's PEG ratio fell below 1 after the downturn, suggesting stocks are undervalued relative to growth prospects and other sectors
• Major tech companies including Nvidia, Microsoft, and others beat analyst forecasts in Q1 2026 despite stock price declines, with business fundamentals remaining strong
• Concerns persist about AI infrastructure delays, with most planned U.S. data centers either delayed or only partially completed by April 2026, potentially threatening the growth narrative

US stock futures fell on Thursday, with Dow futures down 194 points and S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures declining 0.4%, as investors pulled back from Wednesday's rally. The decline reflects caution ahead of key inflation data and concerns over the fragility of a Middle East ceasefire that could still unravel.

• Investors await the personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, for clues on interest rate cuts after rates have been on hold since July
• Markets remain concerned about Middle East ceasefire durability, with President Trump keeping US military assets in the region until Iran agrees to a lasting peace deal
• Energy sector focus centers on the Strait of Hormuz, which carries about 20% of global oil supply, as markets seek credible signs of normalizing flows before extending risk asset advances

U.S. Treasury yields remained largely flat Thursday as investors awaited critical inflation data releases, particularly the February personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge. Market participants are closely watching these indicators to assess the trajectory of interest rates following recent geopolitical developments and Fed signals about potential future rate hikes.

• The 10-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.2872%, while the 2-year yield fell 1 basis point to 3.7832%, and the 30-year yield remained flat at 4.8806%
• The core PCE price index is expected to show a 0.4% reading for February, matching January's increase, with Fed minutes indicating policymakers remain open to rate hikes if inflation exceeds 2%
• Treasury markets saw increased demand Wednesday following a U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement that pressured energy prices, though the fragile truce has led to renewed oil price increases

Oil prices rose more than 3.5% and Asian stocks retreated as a fragile two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran showed signs of slipping following intense Israeli strikes on Lebanon. Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which a fifth of the world's oil passes, despite U.S. demands to reopen it.

• Brent crude climbed 3.5% to $98.09 per barrel while benchmark U.S. crude rose 3.6% to $97.83, reversing earlier gains made on initial ceasefire optimism
• European markets fell sharply with Germany's DAX dropping 1.3% and France's CAC 40 down 0.8%, while U.S. futures declined more than 0.4%
• Talks for a permanent agreement are scheduled to begin in Pakistan on Saturday with VP JD Vance leading the U.S. delegation, as President Trump vowed to keep military presence around Iran until full compliance

Foreign investors poured a net 2.96 trillion yen ($18.65 billion) into Japanese stocks in the week through April 4, reversing three consecutive weeks of selling. The influx was driven by stabilizing sentiment ahead of a U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal and seasonal rebalancing by foreign institutions. This reversed nearly two-thirds of the prior week's 4.45 trillion yen in withdrawals.

• The Nikkei rallied 5.39% on Wednesday following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement announced the day before
• Seasonal factors played a role as foreign institutions typically move holdings offshore in March before dividend entitlements are fixed, then return them in April
• Japanese investors made their largest foreign stock purchase in 11 months at 1.44 trillion yen, while foreign investors also put 2.46 trillion yen into Japanese government bonds amid yields hitting near three-decade highs

U.S. stocks surged on Wednesday with the Dow jumping 1,200 points and the S&P 500 reclaiming its critical 200-day moving average after a last-minute two-week ceasefire was brokered between the U.S. and Iran. The deal, facilitated by Pakistan roughly 90 minutes before President Trump's 8 p.m. deadline, averted military strikes and caused oil prices to plunge 16%.

• The S&P 500 moved back above its 200-day moving average, a key technical threshold that distinguishes bull from bear market territory, potentially signaling sustained upward momentum
• Oil prices crashed with Brent crude falling from $110 to $95 in its biggest single-day drop since COVID, while Treasury yields declined as markets priced in potential Fed rate cuts
• Technology analyst Luke Lango advised deploying capital into AI and high-growth stocks specifically, arguing the ceasefire marks the beginning of the war's end while cautioning the broader economy will continue struggling

US stocks surged on Wednesday with the Dow Jones closing up 1,325 points (2.85%) after a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran eased geopolitical tensions. Oil prices plummeted over 15% on hopes the Strait of Hormuz would reopen, restoring global energy supply flows. The fragile truce faces uncertainty as Iran claims violations and regional risks persist.

• West Texas Intermediate crude fell more than 16% to $94.41 per barrel, its biggest daily drop since April 2020, as Iran signaled it would reopen the Strait of Hormuz through which one-fifth of global oil flows.
• Cyclical and energy-sensitive sectors led gains, with semiconductor stocks jumping over 5% (Micron up 7%, Broadcom up 5%) and Meta surging 6.5% after unveiling its new AI model.
• Doubts remain over the ceasefire's durability as Iran's parliamentary speaker claims the US violated the truce and Hezbollah continues rocket attacks on Israel not covered under the agreement.

U.S. Attorney Jeanine Pirro's criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell faces significant legal obstacles after a federal judge quashed her subpoenas. Former prosecutors say her planned appeal has slim chances of success, while the probe delays confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Powell's replacement. Sen. Tillis is blocking Warsh's nomination until the investigation concludes.

• Chief Judge James Boasberg quashed Pirro's subpoenas related to Fed building cost overruns, stating prosecutors presented 'no evidence whatsoever of fraud' and are still at the 'fact-finding stage'
• The D.C. Circuit Court generally disfavors piecemeal appeals and has not specifically ruled on whether quashed criminal subpoenas can be appealed, creating a 'brutally steep' legal path forward
• Powell's term as chair expires May 15 but he can remain as interim chair until a replacement is confirmed and stay as a board member through January 2028, potentially blocking Warsh indefinitely if the investigation continues

The odds of a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut by December 2026 tripled to 43% following President Trump's announcement of a two-week cease-fire with Iran. Fed minutes from March revealed officials discussed potentially cutting rates due to war-related economic impacts, though inflation remains above the 2% target and Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused severe energy supply disruptions.

• Rate cut probability jumped from 14% to 43% in one day after the cease-fire announcement, though traders have not returned to earlier projections of multiple cuts due to uncertainty
• Fed officials noted the Iran conflict could necessitate lower rates if it causes further labor market softening or reduces household purchasing power through higher oil prices
• Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has caused the worst-ever energy supply disruption, with economists warning higher energy costs could reheat inflation and prevent rate cuts

A Goldman Sachs study reveals that workers displaced by AI and technology face prolonged unemployment, immediate pay cuts of over 3%, and long-term earnings losses that lag nearly 10 percentage points behind peers who weren't laid off. AI is currently eliminating a net 16,000 US jobs monthly, with Gen Z and entry-level workers in routine administrative roles hardest hit.

• AI eliminates roughly 25,000 US jobs monthly while creating only 9,000 new positions through productivity gains, resulting in net losses concentrated in data entry, customer service, and administrative work
• Displaced tech workers experience 'occupational downgrading,' spending about a month unemployed before accepting lower-skilled roles with pay cuts that compound over time and delay life milestones
• Gen Z workers face disproportionate impact as AI targets entry-level positions first, with unemployment and wage gaps widening by 3.3 percentage points in AI-exposed occupations compared to experienced workers

The March FOMC minutes revealed Federal Reserve officials are uncertain about the economic impact of the Iran conflict, with members now viewing rate hikes as equally likely as cuts due to two-sided risks. The committee voted to hold rates, with only one dissenting member favoring a quarter-point cut, while gold prices declined following the release.

• Fed sees balanced upside and downside risks for the first time, driven by Middle East tensions causing both higher energy prices (inflation risk) and potential demand destruction (recession risk)
• Staff forecast shows real GDP growth expected to run in line with potential through 2028, with inflation projected to return close to 2% by end of next year despite elevated near-term energy price concerns
• Stephen Miran was the sole dissenter, voting for a 25 basis point rate cut, while the majority held rates steady amid heightened uncertainty from geopolitical developments

U.S. stocks surged 2.5% and oil prices plummeted over 15% on Wednesday after President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran just before his deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The agreement has sparked optimism that the conflict and resulting oil shock may end, though experts warn significant obstacles to lasting peace remain.

• The S&P 500 jumped to its highest level in a month, recovering most of the nearly 8% decline suffered during the six-week conflict, with some analysts predicting 'euphoria' could push the index back toward its 7,000 record high
• Analysts at JPMorgan and Wolfe Research are bullish on semiconductors, industrials, and consumer discretionary stocks, citing AI infrastructure spending and lower gas prices as tailwinds
• Cautious investors highlight major obstacles including Iran's nuclear program, control of the Strait of Hormuz, and potential Iranian toll requirements for oil tankers that the U.S. is unlikely to accept long-term

Federal Reserve officials at their March 2026 meeting maintained expectations for one rate cut this year despite uncertainty from the Iran war and tariffs. Policymakers emphasized the need to remain 'nimble' as they balance inflation concerns, which remain above the 2% target, against a softening labor market that has shown flat hiring growth over the past year.

• The FOMC voted 11-1 to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, with consensus still projecting one rate cut in 2026, unchanged from December
• Officials expressed concern that rising oil prices from Middle East hostilities could reduce household purchasing power and warrant additional rate cuts if labor market conditions deteriorate further
• Economic growth has slowed significantly, with GDP rising just 0.7% in Q4 2025 and tracking at 1.3% for Q1 2026, raising recession concerns on Wall Street

A US/Israeli-Iran ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan just before President Trump's deadline, triggered sharp rallies in equities and bonds while oil prices plunged nearly 20%. The two-week truce is contingent on Iran halting attacks on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, though uncertainty remains about tolls and the sustainability of the peace agreement.

• Brent crude dropped near $90/barrel (lowest in a month) and WTI fell nearly 20% from overnight highs as ceasefire eased supply concerns
• S&P 500 briefly broke above 6,800 (four-week high), recovering sharply from near 6,300 (eight-month low) hit days earlier
• Probability of a 25-basis point Fed rate cut before year-end jumped to 36% from 13% as lower oil prices reduced inflation pressure; US dollar weakened below 98.50

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission has selected David Woodcock, a Gibson Dunn partner and former SEC official, as its new enforcement director. He replaces Margaret Ryan, who resigned after only six months following conflicts with agency leadership over enforcement strategy. The appointment comes as the SEC's enforcement division recovers from staff departures and leadership turmoil.

• Woodcock previously led the SEC's Fort Worth regional office from 2011-2015, where he helped establish a task force targeting accounting and financial reporting fraud
• Former enforcement director Margaret Ryan resigned after just six months due to clashes with SEC leadership over the direction of the enforcement program
• The enforcement unit has been dealing with both a staff exodus and sudden leadership changes, creating operational challenges for the agency

VettaFi launched two Yield Enhancing Indices for U.S. and European corporate credit markets to address concentration risk in traditional market-cap weighted bond indices. The launch comes as hyperscalers like Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta issued $100-120 billion in debt during Q1 2026, forcing traditional indices to overweight the most indebted issuers. The new indices use equal-weighting and rules-based optimization to generate higher yields without extending duration or sacrificing credit quality.

• Investment-grade ETF flows swung violently from $12 billion inflows in February to $5 billion outflows in the final week of March as the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.48% amid geopolitical tensions
• The new indices deliver 30 basis points of yield advantage over standard benchmarks with 112 basis points of annualized excess return, while maintaining duration within 0.25 years of benchmarks and capping BBB exposure at 65%
• Equal-weighting issuers breaks the 'debt-weight' link where tech giants flooding the market with new debt would otherwise create unintended concentration risk in traditional market-cap weighted indices

U.S. stocks surged Wednesday after President Trump announced a two-week ceasefire deal with Iran, with the S&P 500 up over 2% and the Dow and Nasdaq rising nearly 3%. Airlines and travel stocks led gains as oil prices plummeted, while experts suggest the ceasefire marks a 'near-term market bottom' with improved outlook ahead.

• Airlines and cruise stocks jumped sharply as oil prices dropped 17-18%, with United Airlines up 11%, Carnival up 12%, and WTI crude falling to $92 per barrel
• Energy stocks declined alongside commodities, with Chevron down 6% and Exxon Mobil down 8%, while tech stocks rebounded with Magnificent Seven gains of 1-5%
• Wolfe Research analysts recommend buying tech (especially semiconductors), industrials, discretionary stocks, and housing stocks, stating 'the near-term market bottom is in'