General Market News

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to appoint Randall Guynn, a former Wall Street lawyer at Davis Polk who represented major banks, as its new director of supervision and regulation. The appointment marks a departure from the Fed's tradition of filling the role with career staff since 1977. Guynn will help Vice Chair Michelle Bowman overhaul post-2008 banking rules and reduce the supervision division's headcount by roughly 30%.

• Guynn previously led Davis Polk's Financial Institutions Group and represented the eight largest U.S. lenders, raising potential conflict-of-interest concerns similar to other Wall Street attorneys moving into regulatory roles
• The supervision division oversees the nation's largest banks and will be restructured under Bowman's plan to cut staff by approximately 30% to around 350 people through attrition and buyouts
• Guynn has criticized efforts to raise bank capital requirements and advocated for tailored prudential standards based on institution size and risk, signaling a shift toward lighter regulation

US inflation fell to 2.4% in January 2025, down from 2.7% in December, as economists had predicted a slight easing to 2.5%. The decline comes amid price fluctuations triggered by Trump's tariffs and follows a volatile year where inflation ranged from 2.3% to 3%. Polling shows voters increasingly disapprove of Trump's economic management, particularly on inflation, posing challenges for Republicans ahead of midterm elections.

• Monthly prices rose 0.2% from December to January, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) increasing 0.3% over the month
• The Federal Reserve held off on a rate cut in January and remains uncertain about March, with Fed Chair Powell expecting tariff effects to peak and then decline throughout 2025
• Trump's approval rating fell to 37% in February polling, with inflation being his lowest-rated issue despite campaign promises to tackle high prices

Inflation slowed to 2.4% in January, undershooting expectations and matching its May 2025 pace, despite concerns that President Trump's tariffs would increase prices. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, decelerated to 2.5%, its lowest level since 2021.

• The Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% in January, below expectations and decelerating from recent months
• Core inflation dropped to 2.5%, the coolest level since 2021
• The economy appears to be avoiding immediate inflationary effects from Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs that economists had warned could reheat prices

U.S. inflation eased slightly in January 2026, with the Consumer Price Index rising 0.2% monthly and 2.4% year-over-year, down from December's 2.7%. The figures came in cooler than economists' expectations but remain above the Federal Reserve's target rate, raising concerns about affordability and monetary policy decisions.

• Core inflation (excluding food and energy) increased 0.3% monthly and 2.5% annually, in line with expectations and slightly down from December's 2.6%
• Inflation data from December 2025 through April 2026 may have a downward bias due to the Bureau of Labor Statistics using a carry-forward methodology after last fall's 43-day government shutdown interrupted data collection
• Both headline and core inflation remain above the Federal Reserve's target, creating continued challenges for policymakers balancing price stability with economic growth concerns

President Trump is reportedly planning to reduce tariffs on certain steel and aluminum imports, which currently reach up to 50%, as part of efforts to address affordability concerns. The White House is reviewing affected products to exempt some items and launch more targeted security probes. Steel and aluminum producer stocks fell sharply on the news, with major manufacturers declining 3-12% in pre-market trading.

• Major steelmakers Cleveland-Cliffs, Nucor, and Steel Dynamics dropped 3-5% pre-market, while aluminum producers Century Aluminum and Alcoa fell 12% and 5% respectively
• High steel and aluminum tariffs have pressured U.S. manufacturers across sectors, from automakers to beverage makers, contributing to affordability challenges
• Despite the tariff reduction news, the steel industry group has gained nearly 16% in 2026 so far, ranking 22nd out of 197 industries tracked by IBD

The U.S. consumer price index rose 2.4% year-over-year in January, coming in below the expected 2.5% increase according to Dow Jones consensus estimates. This lower-than-anticipated inflation reading suggests continued cooling in price pressures.

• Actual CPI increase of 2.4% fell short of the 2.5% economist forecast
• The modest inflation reading may influence Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions
• Lower inflation could signal easing economic pressures on consumers and businesses

US stock futures declined on Friday, February 13, 2026, with the Dow and S&P 500 down 0.3% and Nasdaq futures down 0.2%, as investors awaited January CPI data due at 8:30am ET. The previous session saw significant losses, with the Nasdaq falling 2% amid ongoing concerns about AI-driven market disruption. The inflation reading is expected to influence Federal Reserve policy decisions after strong January jobs data dampened rate cut expectations.

• January CPI is expected to show headline inflation rising 0.3% month-over-month and slowing to 2.5%-2.7% year-over-year, which could impact the Fed's interest rate decisions
• Thursday's session saw broad losses with the Nasdaq down 2%, S&P 500 down 1.6%, and Dow Jones down 1.3%, driven by AI-related concerns affecting investor sentiment
• Economic data shows weak demand and sluggish retail sales despite strong January payrolls, with growth primarily driven by trade and AI-related investments

U.S. stock markets fell Thursday as AI disruption fears spread beyond tech to real estate and trucking sectors, with the Dow dropping over 600 points. Investors await Friday's delayed CPI report, expected to show 2.5% year-over-year inflation. The Trump administration also reversed EPA greenhouse gas endangerment findings, dismantling a key climate policy framework.

• AI anxiety expanded to new sectors: real estate stocks fell on concerns about reduced office space needs, while trucking companies dropped after a new AI tool demonstrated freight scaling without additional headcount
• Pinterest plunged over 20% after hours on weak Q4 results and guidance, with CEO citing Trump tariffs as weighing on retail advertisers
• EPA reversed its endangerment finding classifying six greenhouse gases (including CO2 and methane) as public health threats, eliminating the foundation for federal emissions regulations

Logistics and real estate stocks extended losses in premarket trading Friday after AI-driven disruption fears triggered a sector sell-off. The concerns stem from AI firm Algorhythm Holdings' new SemiCab transportation platform, which drove logistics giants down as much as 20% Thursday. Software stocks, still reeling from last week's historic sell-off, showed mixed performance as AI disruption fears spread across multiple sectors.

• Trucking stocks C.H. Robinson and RXO each fell up to 20% Thursday after the SemiCab AI platform launch, while beneficiary Rime surged 30% and gained another 15% in Friday premarket
• Commercial real estate entered its second day of sell-offs with CBRE down 0.6% in premarket, following Thursday's 8% loss, as AI disruption concerns spread beyond software
• UBS strategists view the sell-off as validation of AI's monetization potential and recommend diversifying across sectors, while Wedbush's Dan Ives called the software doomsday scenario 'extremely overblown' and a 'massive dislocation'

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the Senate should proceed with confirmation hearings for Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve chairman, despite an ongoing federal criminal investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The statement addresses the potential transition in Fed leadership amid legal scrutiny of the incumbent chair.

• Kevin Warsh has been nominated by President Trump to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chairman
• A federal criminal investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell is currently underway
• Treasury Secretary Bessent advocates moving forward with Warsh's confirmation process without waiting for the Powell probe to conclude

Dow futures fell over 200 points on Friday ahead of a crucial CPI inflation report, following a tech-led selloff that saw the Dow drop 669 points the previous day. Economists expect CPI to ease to around 2.5% year-over-year with a 0.3% monthly rise, a reading that could reset Federal Reserve rate cut expectations. Market sentiment remains fragile amid ongoing concerns about AI spending and divergent investor views on how markets will react to the data.

• All major index futures declined in pre-market trading: S&P 500 futures down 0.41% to 6,822, Nasdaq-100 futures down 0.55% to 24,630, and Dow futures down over 200 points to 49,304
• Investors are split on the CPI's market impact, with 33% expecting a 'risk-on' reaction, 43% 'mixed/negligible,' and 24% 'risk-off,' according to a 22V Research survey
• A hotter-than-expected CPI print could push bond yields higher and pressure growth stock valuations, particularly in rate-sensitive sectors like tech and real estate

Global markets experienced significant volatility this week driven by Japan's election results, mixed U.S. economic data, and tech sector weakness. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's landslide victory initially boosted Japanese stocks and strengthened the yen, while disappointing tech earnings dragged down the Nasdaq 2%. Mixed signals from U.S. retail sales and stronger-than-expected jobs data left Fed rate cut expectations uncertain ahead of key inflation data.

• Japan's Nikkei surged following Takaichi's election win, while the yen posted its biggest gain in over a year, though investors remain cautious about her planned fiscal spending details
• U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000 in January, nearly double forecasts, reversing earlier expectations for an April Fed rate cut that had reached 50-50 odds after weak retail sales
• Tech giants plan $650 billion in capex for 2026 while governments prepare fiscal expansion despite massive debt burdens, raising questions about the rationale for continued Fed easing with inflation above the 2% target

U.S. stock investors face heightened volatility as AI disruption fears spread across industries like insurance and transportation, creating a 'whack-a-mole' scenario where markets struggle to predict which sectors will be impacted next. The S&P 500 is down 0.2% for the year despite significant sector rotations, with technology declining over 4% while energy, consumer staples, materials, and industrials have gained at least 10%. Key focus next week includes Walmart earnings after the retailer crossed $1 trillion in market cap and critical economic data including PCE inflation and Q4 GDP.

• AI disruption fears have caused extreme stock swings, with technology sector down over 4% in 2026 while four sectors (energy, consumer staples, materials, industrials) are up at least 10%, signaling a leadership shift away from tech stocks that dominated the bull market since October 2022
• Walmart reports quarterly earnings after its stock surged 20% year-to-date and market cap exceeded $1 trillion, providing crucial insights into consumer spending trends following unchanged December retail sales data
• Economic data releases include Q4 GDP advance reading, PCE inflation index (the Fed's preferred gauge), and consumer sentiment surveys, with recent data showing an unexpected jump in jobless claims suggesting labor market stabilization

The Trump administration is reportedly preparing to ease steel and aluminum tariffs imposed last year, particularly on derivative products, following pressure from businesses, allies, and lawmakers. The review aims to simplify enforcement and support trade negotiations with the EU, amid evidence that American consumers and businesses are bearing nearly 90% of tariff costs. Changes would reduce compliance burdens and ease tensions with trading partners affected by the measures.

• Tariffs of up to 50% were imposed to address Chinese overcapacity but expanded to hundreds of derivative products, creating enforcement confusion as companies struggle to determine metal content in imported goods
• Studies by the Congressional Budget Office and Federal Reserve Bank of New York found American businesses and consumers paid nearly 90% of tariff costs in 2025, contributing to public dissatisfaction with over 70% of adults rating economic conditions as fair or poor
• The review is tied to EU trade discussions, as Europe faces a 50% duty complicating a broader trade framework, while other partners including Canada, Mexico, South Korea, and the UK have also been affected by the tariff regime

European stock futures pointed to a mixed open on Friday following a broad sell-off on Wall Street driven by renewed AI sector concerns. U.S. major indices all declined Thursday, with the 'Magnificent 7' tech stocks particularly affected, while investors await key U.S. inflation data and digest ongoing corporate earnings reports.

• AI jitters hit U.S. markets hard on Thursday, with real estate, trucking, and software stocks seeing significant declines and all Magnificent 7 tech stocks closing negative
• U.S. inflation data scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday is a key focus for global investors
• Metal markets declined after reports that President Trump plans to scale back steel and aluminum tariffs, with aluminum futures down 1.2% in London and 0.6% in the U.S.

Indian IT stocks lost approximately $50 billion in market value during February 2025, driven by fears that rapid AI adoption could disrupt the country's $283 billion IT services industry. The Nifty IT index fell 9.4% for the week ending February 13, marking its steepest decline since the March 2020 COVID-19 market crash, with major firms like TCS, Infosys, and HCLTech leading the losses.

• The sell-off was triggered by Anthropic's launch of an AI tool in January, intensifying concerns that generative AI could reduce demand for traditional IT services
• J.P. Morgan noted investor worries that Indian IT firms may miss growth targets as clients reallocate spending toward AI, though the firm argued it's 'overly simplistic' to assume AI can replace enterprise-grade software services
• Industry leaders dropped on Friday: Tata Consultancy Services fell 2.4%, Infosys declined 2.2%, and HCLTech lost 1.2%, contributing to the broader market correction

The United States and Taiwan have signed a trade agreement that reduces U.S. tariffs on Taiwanese exports to 15%, matching rates for Japan and South Korea. In exchange, Taiwan will eliminate or reduce 99% of tariff barriers on U.S. goods and has committed to purchasing over $84 billion in American products from 2025 to 2029, including energy and aviation goods.

• Taiwan will provide preferential market access for U.S. industrial and agricultural exports including autos, beef products, and minerals, and will accept U.S. vehicles built to U.S. safety standards without additional requirements
• The deal follows commitments by Taiwanese chip companies to invest at least $250 billion in U.S. production capacity, though Taiwan has pushed back on U.S. proposals to relocate 40% of its semiconductor supply chain
• China criticized the agreement, claiming it exploits Taiwan's key semiconductor industry, while the deal comes amid ongoing tensions over Taiwan's status and U.S. arms sales to the island worth billions of dollars

Trucking and logistics stocks plummeted on February 12, with Landstar System and C.H. Robinson each falling over 14% and the Dow Jones Transportation Average dropping 4%. The sell-off was triggered by AI automation fears after Algorhythm Holdings announced its AI logistics platform increased freight volumes 300-400% without adding staff, raising concerns about job displacement in the sector.

• Algorhythm Holdings' stock surged 30% after announcing its SemiCab AI unit boosted customer freight volumes by 300-400% without increasing headcount, sparking automation displacement fears across the logistics industry
• The transportation sector decline reflects broader market volatility around AI disruption, with investors adopting a 'shoot first, ask questions later' approach to any AI-related headlines that threaten traditional business models
• Market concerns echo recent fears about AI encroachment following Anthropic's Claude Cowork agent launch, which rattled global markets over potential disruption to traditional software companies

The Trump administration finalized a reciprocal trade agreement with Taiwan that sets U.S. tariffs on Taiwanese imports at 15% while Taiwan will eliminate or lower tariffs on nearly all U.S. goods. Taiwan commits to purchasing $84.8 billion in U.S. goods through 2029, including energy, aircraft, and power equipment. The deal puts Taiwan on equal footing with South Korea and Japan regarding tariff rates.

• Taiwan will immediately eliminate tariffs up to 26% on U.S. agricultural products including beef, dairy, and corn
• Taiwan commits to purchasing $44.4 billion in LNG and crude oil, $15.2 billion in civil aircraft, and $25.2 billion in power grid equipment through 2029
• The agreement reduces U.S. tariffs on Taiwanese semiconductors and other goods from the initial 20% to 15%, matching rates for South Korea and Japan

Gold has experienced unusual volatility recently, with sharp swings rare for the historically stable asset. Analysis suggests a modest recovery over the long term, with historical data showing gold typically regains prior highs within a year after significant selloffs. The case for holding gold is reinforced by CBO projections showing U.S. debt will exceed 100% of GDP this year, with annual deficits reaching $3 trillion by 2036 and interest costs consuming over 25% of tax revenue.

• Gold fell more than 12% over two trading days for only the second time in 30 years; historical analysis shows recoveries are measured, with average rebounds adding roughly 8% over 360-day periods after similar drops
• The Congressional Budget Office projects the U.S. deficit will reach $3 trillion (6.7% of GDP) by 2036, with debt-to-GDP crossing 100% in 2026 and interest costs exceeding a quarter of all tax revenue
• Analyst recommends holding precious metals as portfolio anchors against fiscal excess and inflation, not for speculative gains, while highlighting POET Technologies as a complementary AI infrastructure play in optical interconnect technology