General Market News

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on August 6, 2026, implementing new trade protections for the U.S. polysilicon manufacturing industry. The order uses Section 232 authority to shield domestic producers from foreign dumping and offshore threats through tariffs and pricing measures.

• The administration plans to impose 15% tariffs on imported polysilicon derivatives and establish a new price floor
• The trade actions are designed to protect U.S. polysilicon manufacturing from overseas dumping practices
• The executive order utilizes Section 232 authority, typically invoked for national security-related trade restrictions

Wall Street declined on Thursday with the Dow falling 454 points (0.83%) as disappointing tech earnings and rising Middle East tensions overshadowed a strong earnings season. Oil prices jumped over 3% on reports Iran may restrict access to the Strait of Hormuz, while investors awaited Friday's jobs report for Fed policy clues.

• Tech stocks led losses as Western Digital dropped 12% and AppLovin fell 20% despite beating expectations, with Datadog warning of slowing revenue growth in Q3
• Oil surged with Brent crude up 3.83% to $82.49 per barrel on potential Iranian legislation blocking hostile vessels from the Strait of Hormuz
• Despite weakness, 84.8% of S&P 500 companies reporting through Wednesday beat earnings expectations, well above the 68% long-term average

US employers announced only 33,429 layoffs in July, the lowest level in two years and down 27% from June, signaling labor market resilience despite AI disruption and economic uncertainties. While AI has been cited in 112,713 job cuts so far this year, hiring plans simultaneously increased 25% year-over-year to 107,500 workers through July. The technology sector remains most affected, accounting for nearly a third of all 2026 job cuts.

• Total 2026 layoffs through July reached 477,033, down 41% from the same period in 2025, with AI cited as the reason for 112,713 cuts since January and 184,538 cuts since tracking began in 2023
• Hiring announcements surged to 16,095 in July, up 47% from June and 400% higher than July 2025's 3,200, with aerospace, defense, energy, and manufacturing leading job creation
• Technology sector announced 149,023 layoffs in 2026 so far (67% more than 2025), but overall labor market shows strength ahead of Friday's official Bureau of Labor Statistics jobs report

The Dow Jones exhibited a rare technical warning signal on August 4-5, 2026, with two consecutive sessions closing above the upper Bollinger Band and forming a shooting star candlestick pattern. Historical data shows this combination has previously led to mild-to-average weakness over 1-20 days. Weak market breadth, as indicated by neutral McClellan Oscillator readings, suggests the recent rally lacks broad participation and may be vulnerable to a pullback.

• The two-day Bollinger Band breach combined with a shooting star pattern is extremely rare, with only a handful of instances since the 1990s, all followed by short-term weakness consistent with mean reversion
• Momentum indicators were stretched with RSI-5 near 81 and stochastic near 92 on August 5, while the NYSE McClellan Oscillator remains at neutral levels rather than the deep oversold readings (below -60 to -100) that mark durable market bottoms
• Limited market breadth mirrors early 2026 conditions when advances stalled due to lack of participation, suggesting investors should watch for confirmation via a break below the shooting star low or drift toward the middle Bollinger Band

President Trump has been speaking repeatedly with Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh, marking a sharp departure from his hostile relationship with predecessor Jerome Powell. While the White House claims Trump respects Fed independence, the close relationship creates risks that Warsh may need to act more aggressively on interest rates than economically necessary to prove his credibility and independence.

• Trump previously undermined Fed independence by attempting to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook and having the Justice Department investigate Powell, but now treats Warsh as 'almost a member of the Cabinet'
• Market observers noted Warsh appeared to lose credibility at his second press conference when he signaled potential rate hikes to fight inflation above 2% but then cast doubt on following through in Q&A
• Former Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner warned Warsh may need to raise rates 'more than otherwise would be necessary to earn that credibility,' potentially harming the economy to prove political independence

RiverFront Investment Group's July 2026 analysis highlights strong corporate fundamentals driving market gains in Q2 2026, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting their best quarterly performance in years. The report emphasizes resilient employment, above-trend productivity growth of 2.8% year-over-year, and record corporate profits supporting the ongoing bull market despite concerns about tech valuations and political uncertainty.

• Job market resilience demonstrated by layoffs down 40% compared to the prior year, with moderating but stable labor costs
• US productivity growing above trend at 2.8% year-over-year as of Q1 2026, contributing to improved corporate efficiency
• Corporate profits and cash flow for both public and private US companies reached all-time highs in Q2 2026, with tech spending driven by AI infrastructure demand rippling through supply chains

The Trump administration is expected to reject requests from U.S. manufacturers to accelerate the implementation timeline for a new 15% tariff and price floor on polysilicon product imports. The tariff is set to take effect 120 days after announcement (potentially Thursday), despite industry lobbying for a faster 90-day timeline to limit sales from a major foreign producer into the U.S. market.

• A 15% tariff and price floor on polysilicon derivatives could be announced as soon as Thursday with a 120-day implementation period
• Some U.S. manufacturers lobbied for a shortened 90-day timeline, arguing the extra month would allow a top foreign producer to flood the U.S. market and harm domestic rivals
• The administration is expected to maintain the longer 120-day implementation period, rejecting the industry's request for acceleration

The week of August 10-14, 2026 will bring a packed schedule for investors, with key inflation data (CPI and PPI), retail sales, and earnings reports from multiple technology and growth companies. Critical economic indicators include consumer price index data on Wednesday and producer price index on Thursday, alongside jobless claims and consumer sentiment readings.

• CPI and core CPI inflation data release Wednesday, August 12, followed by PPI data on Thursday, August 13
• Notable earnings reports include CAVA Group, Lumentum, Cerebras Systems, Applied Materials, and several other high-beta growth names throughout the week
• Additional economic releases include NFIB small business optimism, existing home sales, retail sales, and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release July's nonfarm payrolls report, with economists expecting a modest gain of 83,000 jobs and unemployment holding steady at 4.2%. Beyond headline numbers, economists will scrutinize labor force participation, wage growth, and job sector composition to assess labor market health as the Federal Reserve weighs potential interest rate hikes amid persistent inflation concerns.

• Labor force participation rate fell to 61.5% in June, the lowest since March 2021 (excluding pandemic), with prime-age worker participation (25-54) dropping to its lowest since December 2023
• The labor market is characterized as 'low-hire, low-fire' with employment declining by 833,000 in 2026 despite steady unemployment, particularly impacting young workers and new entrants
• Average hourly earnings expected to rise 0.3% monthly and 3.5% annually, while some economists like Citigroup predict the unemployment rate could rise above 4.5%, potentially triggering Fed rate cuts in Q4

LATAM Airlines Group reported second-quarter 2026 earnings of 58 cents per share, beating estimates, with revenues rising 27.6% year-over-year to $4.18 billion, surpassing consensus by 8.6%. Strong passenger revenues (up 27.9%) and cargo revenues (up 21.8%) drove growth, though operating margins contracted due to jet fuel costs surging 93.1% year-over-year.

• Passenger unit revenues climbed 17.5% on higher fares and strong yields despite 8.9% capacity expansion; premium offerings contributed 29% of passenger revenues
• Adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2026 raised to $4.10-$4.40 billion from prior $3.80-$4.20 billion range; revenue outlook increased to $17.30-$17.70 billion
• Operating margin compressed 7.5 percentage points to 5.4% as jet fuel prices climbed 81.3% to $194.50 per barrel; company ended quarter with $4.23 billion total liquidity

Oil prices rallied on August 6, 2026, as Houthi forces attacked Saudi-backed troops in Yemen, raising Middle East supply concerns. WTI crude gained 3.15% and Brent rose 3.45%, while natural gas declined 1.20% following a larger-than-expected storage build. The conflict escalation threatens potential supply disruptions in a key oil-producing region.

• Natural gas fell as EIA reported storage increased by 33 Bcf versus 31 Bcf expected, with stocks 195 Bcf above the five-year average, pressuring prices toward the $2.50-$2.55 support range
• WTI oil pushed above $77.50-$78.00 resistance toward the 50-day MA at $80.07, driven by Houthi attacks on Saudi-backed forces and potential end to the 2022 ceasefire
• Brent crude tested resistance at $82.00-$82.50 as traders monitored a potential Iran-Oman agreement on Strait of Hormuz management for 2-4 months, though U.S. naval blockade complicates implementation

Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook signaled readiness to raise interest rates if inflation remains elevated, as dissent grows within the Fed over policy direction. Inflation has stayed above the Fed's 2% target for over five years, easing only to 3.5% in June. Cook warned that the Fed is running out of time to address stubborn inflation before it becomes entrenched in the economy.

• At last week's Fed meeting, nine officials voted to hold rates steady in the 3.5%-3.75% range, while three dissenting members (Logan, Hammack, Kashkari) pushed for a quarter-point hike
• Cook warned that inflation 'may become entrenched in price- and wage-setting behavior' and emphasized the Fed doesn't have the 'luxury' to wait longer given elevated price pressures
• The debate centers on whether recent inflation improvement is sufficient to avoid rate hikes, or if waiting too long risks allowing inflation to run rampant amid uncertainties including tariffs and Middle East conflicts

Federal Reserve officials are beginning to monitor financial stability risks from the rapid pace of AI investment, though views differ on the severity of the threat. While some Fed leaders like NY Fed President John Williams do not see a bubble forming, others including Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid are raising concerns about leverage, complex financing structures, and potential 'too big to fail' risks. The investment scale and uncertain returns on unproven technology have put AI finance on the central bank's watchlist.

• AI data-center buildout is currently less than half the size of the 2005 housing boom (which peaked at 6.6% of GDP), but investment pace relative to GDP is growing faster than housing did before the financial crisis
• Kansas City Fed's Schmid questioned whether circular financing commitments between data centers, energy providers, and communities are becoming over-leveraged and could create contagion risks
• San Francisco Fed's Daly noted that many AI commitments remain announcements rather than physical realities, reducing 'stranded asset' risk, but emphasized the Fed is building a monitoring dashboard for potential problems

Oil prices jumped approximately 3.5-4% on Thursday after Iran's state news agency published a draft plan imposing restrictive conditions on ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The increase reversed an 8% decline earlier in the week when U.S. officials suggested a deal to increase strait traffic was near.

• Brent crude rose about 4% to $82.72 per barrel while WTI increased 3.5% to $77.83 following the Iranian announcement
• Iran's draft plan would ban U.S. and Israeli ships from the strait and impose penalties equivalent to 20% of cargo value on violators, with other nations required to pay compensation for past harms
• A tanker reported two explosions near Oman while transiting Hormuz, and Iran's Houthi allies claimed an attack on a Saudi tanker in the Red Sea

SpaceX and Sandisk stocks experienced sharp intraday rebounds on August 6, 2026, but failed to sustain gains as AI spending concerns continue to pressure tech stocks. SpaceX bounced from near its all-time low of $104.83 to $115.75 before fading back to $109.22, while Sandisk surged from $1558.61 to $1696.37 before giving back most gains. The broader market remains under pressure with the S&P 500 down 0.11% and confirmed reversal patterns suggesting potential pullbacks toward 50-day moving averages.

• SpaceX is testing its lockup period which allows up to 20% of restricted insider and early-investor shares to be sold, with the stock trading near its all-time low despite the intraday recovery attempt.
• Sandisk's data-center revenue rose over 400% in 2026 versus 2025 and doubled quarter-over-quarter, but investors are selling on concerns that upside revisions cannot maintain their historic pace despite beating revenue estimates.
• Iran and Oman are working toward a temporary arrangement for Strait of Hormuz transit, which if successful would contain oil prices and reduce inflation pressure on equities, though confirmation requires resumption of normal tanker traffic.

CTO Realty (CTO) has been upgraded to a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of covered stocks. The upgrade is driven by upward revisions in earnings estimates, which historically correlate with near-term stock price increases. This positions CTO as a potential candidate for market-beating returns.

• CTO Realty's fiscal year 2026 earnings estimates have increased 1.2% over the past three months, reflecting improved business outlook
• Zacks Rank #1 stocks have historically generated an average annual return of +25% since 1988
• The upgrade reflects positive earnings estimate revisions from analysts, which the Zacks system identifies as a powerful predictor of near-term stock price movements

Editas Medicine (EDIT) reported second-quarter 2026 results that beat earnings estimates with a loss of 15 cents per share, narrower than expected. Collaboration revenues rose to $11.9 million from $3.6 million year-over-year, significantly exceeding the $2 million consensus estimate. The company is advancing its lead gene-editing therapy EDIT-401 toward clinical trials, with a regulatory filing planned for August 2026 in Australia.

• EDIT-401 showed durable LDL cholesterol reductions of approximately 90% or more in preclinical non-human primate studies, with effects lasting at least six months
• The company plans to file a Clinical Trial Notification in Australia in August 2026 and expects to report top-line results from the phase I/II study in 2027
• Cash position of $211.6 million as of June 30, 2026 is expected to fund operations into the second half of 2028, supported by a $1.3 million restructuring benefit from discontinuing the reni-cel program

Mortgage rates climbed to their highest level in over a year, with the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage reaching 6.69%, up from 6.66% the previous week, according to Freddie Mac's latest survey. The increase continues to pressure housing affordability, though the market shows some adjustment with listing prices moderately below year-ago levels and improving inventory.

• The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 6.69%, compared to 6.63% one year ago, marking a new 12-month high
• The 15-year fixed mortgage rate decreased slightly to 6.01% from 6.04% the previous week
• Despite rate pressures on affordability, the housing market shows signs of adjustment with listing prices below year-ago levels and improved for-sale inventory

Russia increased crude and condensate output in July by approximately 100,000 barrels per day to above 9 million bpd, driven by strong exports and recovering refinery operations. However, escalating drone attacks on refineries and limited tanker capacity in the Black Sea may prevent maintaining this production level in August. Oil sales remain critical for Russia's budget revenue despite Western sanctions and ongoing attacks on energy infrastructure.

• July production rose to above 9 million bpd from June's 8.928 million bpd, though Russia stopped publishing official oil output data in 2023
• Russia plans to increase crude exports from western ports by 4% in August, as unplanned refinery outages free up volumes for export
• Drone attacks in late July and early August, combined with Black Sea tanker capacity shortages, could force producers to curb output due to difficulties placing crude volumes

Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi now see a 66% chance that the S&P 500 will hit 8,000 in 2026, following a surge of over 5% across four sessions. The index closed Wednesday just 3.6% away from that level, driven by easing Middle East tensions, strong earnings, and renewed momentum in AI stocks after a late June-July slump.

• Kalshi traders place 2-in-3 odds for S&P 500 crossing 8,000 in 2026, and a one-in-three chance of reaching 8,200 this year
• The recent rally was fueled by U.S.-Iran tension easing, strong earnings season, and recovery from the near-collapse of the Situational Awareness fund
• Analysts view the June-July pullback as a healthy reset rather than the end of the bull market, citing rising earnings estimates and resilient economic growth