General Market News

Elon Musk's SpaceX is considering implementing a dual-class share structure for its planned IPO, which could value the company at over $1.5 trillion. The structure would allow Musk to retain voting control while raising capital. SpaceX is also expanding its board of directors to oversee the IPO process.

• The planned IPO could value SpaceX at over $1.5 trillion, making it one of the largest public offerings in history
• Dual-class share structures typically give founders greater voting power than their economic ownership stake would normally allow, enabling Musk to maintain control
• SpaceX is adding board members to oversee the IPO and expand operations beyond its core rocket and satellite businesses

The January 2026 Consumer Price Index shows inflation cooling to 2.4% year-over-year, with notable easing in essential categories like energy (down 1.5% monthly) and food (up 2.8% annually). Consumers are increasingly using installment plans and buy now, pay later tools to manage cash flow, with 31% utilizing credit card installments in recent months.

• Shelter costs remain elevated at 3% year-over-year but show slower monthly momentum at 0.2%, suggesting housing-related pressures may be gradually easing
• Services inflation persists with food away from home up 4% and medical care services up 3.9% annually, while goods-related inflation shows clearer deceleration
• Lower-income consumers earning under $50,000 continue allocating major income portions to essentials: 37% to housing, 25% to food, and 13% to monthly bills

U.S. stocks rallied Friday after January's Consumer Price Index rose only 0.2% month-over-month and 2.4% year-over-year, both below expectations. The softer-than-anticipated inflation data suggests cooling price pressures may give the Federal Reserve more flexibility to cut interest rates sooner than previously expected.

• January CPI increased 0.2% monthly versus 0.3% expected, with annual inflation at 2.4%, signaling continued disinflation progress toward the Fed's target
• Declining gasoline prices helped offset persistent increases in shelter and food costs, providing critical relief in keeping overall inflation from re-accelerating
• Market experts suggest the favorable inflation data, combined with recent jobs numbers, could prompt the Fed to begin rate cuts earlier than currently anticipated by markets

UBS analyst Matthew Mish warns that AI disruption could trigger $75 billion to $120 billion in defaults in the leveraged loan and private credit markets by late 2026, potentially causing a credit crunch. The $3.5 trillion markets, heavily exposed to private equity-backed software and data services firms, face faster-than-expected disruption from recent AI model advances. Companies with high debt loads are particularly vulnerable as AI transforms the competitive landscape more rapidly than previously anticipated.

• Baseline scenario projects combined defaults of $75-$120 billion by end of 2026 in the $1.5 trillion leveraged loan and $2 trillion private credit markets, with default rates rising by up to 2.5% and 4% respectively
• Private equity-owned software and data services companies with high debt levels are most at risk, as recent AI models from Anthropic and OpenAI have accelerated disruption timelines from 2027-2028 to immediate concerns
• A more severe 'tail risk' scenario could double the default estimates and trigger a broader credit crunch, though UBS is not yet forecasting this outcome while acknowledging the market is moving in that direction

U.S. stock markets declined sharply this week as AI disruption fears spread across multiple sectors, pushing the Nasdaq near three-month lows and the S&P 500 below its 50-day moving average. While chip-equipment makers and some aerospace stocks rallied on strong earnings, concerns about AI undermining incumbents hit wealth management, commercial real estate, software, and networking sectors. Mixed earnings from major companies including Cisco Systems, AppLovin, and Robinhood added to market volatility.

• AI disruption fears widened beyond software to wealth management firms like Charles Schwab and Raymond James, commercial real estate companies like CBRE, and logistics firms like C.H. Robinson Worldwide, triggering sharp selloffs.
• Cisco Systems fell after warning of memory chip margin pressure despite beating estimates and reporting AI network infrastructure orders exceeding $2.1 billion, while Arista Networks surged on strong results and doubled AI networking revenue outlook to $3.25 billion.
• Semiconductor equipment makers remained strong with Applied Materials, Entegris, and Advanced Energy posting beat-and-raise reports, benefiting from heightened chipmaker spending on AI data center equipment.

U.S. stock markets showed mixed performance on February 13, 2026, as cooler-than-expected inflation data (CPI at 2.4% yearly) failed to lift tech stocks following a sharp selloff driven by AI disruption fears. The Dow and S&P 500 posted modest gains while the Nasdaq struggled, with investor concerns spreading from software stocks to financials, real estate, and media sectors.

• January CPI rose 0.2% monthly and 2.4% yearly, below consensus estimates, providing the Fed breathing room but not changing rate cut expectations as inflation remains above the 2% target.
• AI-related fears triggered sector-wide selloffs: Charles Schwab down 10%, Morgan Stanley down 6%, Workday and CBRE dropped double-digits, Walt Disney fell 3%, and Netflix declined 7% for the week.
• Technical analysis shows the S&P 500's 50-day moving average at 6,895 has become key resistance, with potential downside risk to the 200-day moving average at 6,405 if 'buy the dip' strategies fail.

Multiple companies have reduced IPO sizes or postponed U.S. listings in 2026 due to market volatility and valuation concerns. Clear Street, Brazilian fintech Agibank, and Blackstone-backed Liftoff Mobile are among firms affected by heightened investor scrutiny and weak performance of recently listed peers. Despite Goldman Sachs predicting IPOs could double to 120 this year, a software stock selloff has highlighted valuation risks.

• Clear Street postponed its IPO citing 'market conditions' after slashing its deal size by 65% just hours before the planned listing
• Agibank completed a downsized IPO but its stock plunged nearly 15% from the offer price by Thursday's close, reflecting weak investor appetite
• Liftoff Mobile delayed its New York listing last week amid a steep selloff in software stocks, planning to revisit the offering when conditions improve

US Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% year-over-year in January, below the expected 2.5%, with core CPI at 2.5%, its lowest since March 2021. The cooler-than-expected inflation data has reignited debate over whether the Federal Reserve should cut interest rates soon, though a March cut remains highly unlikely. Analysts suggest the easing inflation gives the Fed flexibility while investor focus shifts from rate cuts to company fundamentals and AI-driven growth.

• Real interest rates remain restrictive at 3.5%-3.75%, materially higher than inflation, prompting calls for modest rate cuts to prevent overtightening in sectors like housing and business investment
• Market focus is shifting away from rate cut speculation toward corporate fundamentals and AI disruption potential, with the Fed expected to proceed cautiously with only a couple of rate cuts later in 2026
• January's report showed mixed components: airfares jumped while used car and shelter costs softened, maintaining a gradual disinflation trend that keeps the possibility for easing alive

A Federal Reserve Bank of New York study found that US businesses and consumers bore approximately 90% of the cost of President Trump's 2025 tariffs, contradicting his claims that foreign countries were paying. The findings come as the White House faces political pressure ahead of midterm elections and is reviewing potential exemptions to tariffs that pushed duties up to 50% on metal imports and related products.

• In the first eight months of 2025, 94% of tariff costs fell on American businesses and consumers, with that figure remaining near 90% through October according to the New York Fed study
• Tariff collections reached $287 billion in calendar year 2025, nearly tripling the previous year and representing a 304% increase, making them the largest tax increase since 1993
• The White House is reviewing exemptions and considering more targeted national security investigations rather than expanding tariffs further, as some Republican lawmakers join Democrats in supporting legislation to overturn certain levies

US consumer price inflation eased to 2.4% year-over-year in January 2026, below the expected 2.5% and down from December's 2.7%. Despite the softer headline figure, core inflation remained steady at 2.5% annually, and strong labor market data suggest the Federal Reserve will likely keep interest rates unchanged in its current 3.50%-3.75% range.

• Monthly price increases of 0.2% came in below the 0.3% forecast, while core inflation rose 0.3% monthly, indicating gradual cooling with persistent underlying price pressures
• Recent strong jobs data and unemployment falling to 4.3% give the Fed room to remain patient, with only one more CPI report expected before the mid-March policy meeting
• Economists anticipate temporary inflation pickup later in 2026 due to Trump's import tariffs and a 7.4% dollar decline in 2025, complicating the Fed's balancing act

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to appoint Randall Guynn, a former Wall Street lawyer at Davis Polk who represented major banks, as its new director of supervision and regulation. The appointment marks a departure from the Fed's tradition of filling the role with career staff since 1977. Guynn will help Vice Chair Michelle Bowman overhaul post-2008 banking rules and reduce the supervision division's headcount by roughly 30%.

• Guynn previously led Davis Polk's Financial Institutions Group and represented the eight largest U.S. lenders, raising potential conflict-of-interest concerns similar to other Wall Street attorneys moving into regulatory roles
• The supervision division oversees the nation's largest banks and will be restructured under Bowman's plan to cut staff by approximately 30% to around 350 people through attrition and buyouts
• Guynn has criticized efforts to raise bank capital requirements and advocated for tailored prudential standards based on institution size and risk, signaling a shift toward lighter regulation

US inflation fell to 2.4% in January 2025, down from 2.7% in December, as economists had predicted a slight easing to 2.5%. The decline comes amid price fluctuations triggered by Trump's tariffs and follows a volatile year where inflation ranged from 2.3% to 3%. Polling shows voters increasingly disapprove of Trump's economic management, particularly on inflation, posing challenges for Republicans ahead of midterm elections.

• Monthly prices rose 0.2% from December to January, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) increasing 0.3% over the month
• The Federal Reserve held off on a rate cut in January and remains uncertain about March, with Fed Chair Powell expecting tariff effects to peak and then decline throughout 2025
• Trump's approval rating fell to 37% in February polling, with inflation being his lowest-rated issue despite campaign promises to tackle high prices

Inflation slowed to 2.4% in January, undershooting expectations and matching its May 2025 pace, despite concerns that President Trump's tariffs would increase prices. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, decelerated to 2.5%, its lowest level since 2021.

• The Consumer Price Index rose 2.4% in January, below expectations and decelerating from recent months
• Core inflation dropped to 2.5%, the coolest level since 2021
• The economy appears to be avoiding immediate inflationary effects from Trump's 'Liberation Day' tariffs that economists had warned could reheat prices

U.S. inflation eased slightly in January 2026, with the Consumer Price Index rising 0.2% monthly and 2.4% year-over-year, down from December's 2.7%. The figures came in cooler than economists' expectations but remain above the Federal Reserve's target rate, raising concerns about affordability and monetary policy decisions.

• Core inflation (excluding food and energy) increased 0.3% monthly and 2.5% annually, in line with expectations and slightly down from December's 2.6%
• Inflation data from December 2025 through April 2026 may have a downward bias due to the Bureau of Labor Statistics using a carry-forward methodology after last fall's 43-day government shutdown interrupted data collection
• Both headline and core inflation remain above the Federal Reserve's target, creating continued challenges for policymakers balancing price stability with economic growth concerns

President Trump is reportedly planning to reduce tariffs on certain steel and aluminum imports, which currently reach up to 50%, as part of efforts to address affordability concerns. The White House is reviewing affected products to exempt some items and launch more targeted security probes. Steel and aluminum producer stocks fell sharply on the news, with major manufacturers declining 3-12% in pre-market trading.

• Major steelmakers Cleveland-Cliffs, Nucor, and Steel Dynamics dropped 3-5% pre-market, while aluminum producers Century Aluminum and Alcoa fell 12% and 5% respectively
• High steel and aluminum tariffs have pressured U.S. manufacturers across sectors, from automakers to beverage makers, contributing to affordability challenges
• Despite the tariff reduction news, the steel industry group has gained nearly 16% in 2026 so far, ranking 22nd out of 197 industries tracked by IBD

The U.S. consumer price index rose 2.4% year-over-year in January, coming in below the expected 2.5% increase according to Dow Jones consensus estimates. This lower-than-anticipated inflation reading suggests continued cooling in price pressures.

• Actual CPI increase of 2.4% fell short of the 2.5% economist forecast
• The modest inflation reading may influence Federal Reserve monetary policy decisions
• Lower inflation could signal easing economic pressures on consumers and businesses

US stock futures declined on Friday, February 13, 2026, with the Dow and S&P 500 down 0.3% and Nasdaq futures down 0.2%, as investors awaited January CPI data due at 8:30am ET. The previous session saw significant losses, with the Nasdaq falling 2% amid ongoing concerns about AI-driven market disruption. The inflation reading is expected to influence Federal Reserve policy decisions after strong January jobs data dampened rate cut expectations.

• January CPI is expected to show headline inflation rising 0.3% month-over-month and slowing to 2.5%-2.7% year-over-year, which could impact the Fed's interest rate decisions
• Thursday's session saw broad losses with the Nasdaq down 2%, S&P 500 down 1.6%, and Dow Jones down 1.3%, driven by AI-related concerns affecting investor sentiment
• Economic data shows weak demand and sluggish retail sales despite strong January payrolls, with growth primarily driven by trade and AI-related investments

U.S. stock markets fell Thursday as AI disruption fears spread beyond tech to real estate and trucking sectors, with the Dow dropping over 600 points. Investors await Friday's delayed CPI report, expected to show 2.5% year-over-year inflation. The Trump administration also reversed EPA greenhouse gas endangerment findings, dismantling a key climate policy framework.

• AI anxiety expanded to new sectors: real estate stocks fell on concerns about reduced office space needs, while trucking companies dropped after a new AI tool demonstrated freight scaling without additional headcount
• Pinterest plunged over 20% after hours on weak Q4 results and guidance, with CEO citing Trump tariffs as weighing on retail advertisers
• EPA reversed its endangerment finding classifying six greenhouse gases (including CO2 and methane) as public health threats, eliminating the foundation for federal emissions regulations

Logistics and real estate stocks extended losses in premarket trading Friday after AI-driven disruption fears triggered a sector sell-off. The concerns stem from AI firm Algorhythm Holdings' new SemiCab transportation platform, which drove logistics giants down as much as 20% Thursday. Software stocks, still reeling from last week's historic sell-off, showed mixed performance as AI disruption fears spread across multiple sectors.

• Trucking stocks C.H. Robinson and RXO each fell up to 20% Thursday after the SemiCab AI platform launch, while beneficiary Rime surged 30% and gained another 15% in Friday premarket
• Commercial real estate entered its second day of sell-offs with CBRE down 0.6% in premarket, following Thursday's 8% loss, as AI disruption concerns spread beyond software
• UBS strategists view the sell-off as validation of AI's monetization potential and recommend diversifying across sectors, while Wedbush's Dan Ives called the software doomsday scenario 'extremely overblown' and a 'massive dislocation'

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the Senate should proceed with confirmation hearings for Kevin Warsh, President Trump's nominee for Federal Reserve chairman, despite an ongoing federal criminal investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. The statement addresses the potential transition in Fed leadership amid legal scrutiny of the incumbent chair.

• Kevin Warsh has been nominated by President Trump to replace Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve chairman
• A federal criminal investigation into current Fed Chair Jerome Powell is currently underway
• Treasury Secretary Bessent advocates moving forward with Warsh's confirmation process without waiting for the Powell probe to conclude