Morning Bid: Six-week roundtrip

• Over 80% of U.S. companies reporting first-quarter earnings have beaten analyst expectations, with major banks and tech firms leading the positive results
• China's Q1 GDP grew 5.0%, exceeding forecasts of 4.8% and reaching the top of its 4.5%-5.0% annual target range despite the Iran war's impact on global energy costs
• Oil prices stabilized around $96/bbl for Brent and $92/bbl for WTI, staying below the critical $100 threshold as geopolitical tensions eased with potential Iran-Israel negotiations

Market Summary: Global Stocks Rally as Geopolitical Tensions Ease

Key Market Movements:

Global equities staged a significant rally, with MSCI's all-country index rebounding sharply on Thursday. Japan's Nikkei hit fresh records, closing up 2.5%, while South Korea's KOSPI gained over 2%. U.S. stocks also reached new highs Wednesday, driven by strong corporate earnings.

Geopolitical Developments:

Fresh U.S.-Iran peace talks are underway, with a Pakistani mediator arriving in Tehran. Reports suggest Iran may allow ships through the Omani side of the Strait of Hormuz. President Trump announced potential Israel-Lebanon negotiations, easing Middle East tensions that dominated markets for six weeks.

Energy Markets:

Oil prices remained below the critical $100/barrel level despite tensions. Brent crude traded around $96/barrel, while WTI hovered near $92/barrel, pulling back from recent highs.

Corporate Earnings:

Over 80% of companies reporting Q1 results have beaten analyst expectations. Major banks impressed earlier this week. Taiwan's TSMC reported results today, with upcoming earnings from BNY, Charles Schwab, and PepsiCo.

China Economic Data:

China reported Q1 GDP growth of 5.0% year-over-year, exceeding economist forecasts of 4.8% and hitting the top of its 4.5%-5.0% target range. Growth was driven by export strength, though March retail sales and industrial output showed some softening.

Currency Markets:

The dollar fell to six-week lows, unwinding most safe-haven gains accumulated during the Iran conflict.

Fed Leadership:

President Trump escalated pressure on outgoing Fed Chair Jerome Powell, threatening termination. Confirmation hearings for nominee Kevin Warsh begin next week.

Market Implications:

Investors are pivoting from geopolitical concerns back to fundamental analysis, with tech earnings and economic resilience taking center stage.