General Market News

The VIX volatility index is seeing increased equity-market hedging activity as investors prepare for historically volatile months of September and October. Multiple risk factors including U.S. midterm elections, interest-rate uncertainty, and Middle East hostilities are driving investors to seek protection, with VIX three-month call skew in the 91st percentile indicating expensive hedging costs.

• Both VIX and MOVE indices are around their 10-year averages, while corporate credit spreads remain historically tight, suggesting potential for increased volatility as markets exit the summer slowdown
• Equity investors are hedging against a 'negative risk trinity' of election uncertainty, interest-rate risk from oversupply dynamics, and hawkish central bank policies
• Volatility is expected to ease in November, with VIX typically falling around 4% after midterm elections remove political uncertainty and provide policy clarity

President Trump has warned Iran against activity at Pickaxe Mountain, a suspected underground nuclear site near the damaged Natanz facility, as tensions escalate with attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz. Satellite imagery shows increased construction activity at the site, raising concerns Iran may be reconstituting its nuclear program. The conflict has pushed oil prices above $100 per barrel and disrupted a chokepoint handling 20% of global oil traffic.

• CSIS satellite analysis shows more road activity at Pickaxe Mountain in 2026 than any point in the site's history, with construction shifting from excavation to probable internal development just 2 kilometers from the previously damaged Natanz uranium facility
• Iran attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz and fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. base in Jordan, while U.S. forces destroyed five Iranian oil tankers in response to attacks on Navy warships
• Oil prices crossed $100 per barrel (Brent at $100.40, WTI at $95.51) as the tanker attacks threaten supply through the Strait of Hormuz; Trump stated the war likely won't end until after November midterm elections

UK e-commerce company THG reported first-half core earnings more than doubled to £42.8 million, driven by price increases and strong Myprotein sales. However, the company warned that Q3 revenue growth would slow sharply to about 2% due to new EU import duties and a European heatwave, before rebounding to 6-7% in Q4.

• Adjusted core earnings jumped 109% to £42.8 million ($58.02 million) for the six months ending June, aided by price hikes to offset rising commodity costs
• New EU import duties (€3 flat charge per item after removal of €150 de minimis exemption) primarily impacted THG's beauty unit, with some revenue shifting to Q4 and next year
• Q3 revenue growth expected at only 2% due to EU tariffs and European heatwave affecting demand, but company maintains full-year outlook aligned with market consensus

Chinese AI startup DeepSeek launched its DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash model on Thursday, described as the smallest model in its new architecture family. The release comes as the company prepares for an IPO on Shanghai's tech-focused STAR Market, according to Reuters reporting.

• DeepSeek-V4.1-Flash is designed for greater capability, faster inference, higher throughput, and scaling to larger models
• The launch coincides with DeepSeek's preparations for a public listing on Shanghai's STAR Market
• The V4.1-Flash represents the smallest offering in DeepSeek's new model architecture family

China helped prevent a global oil price crisis by drastically reducing crude imports and tapping its strategic reserves after a Middle East war closed the Strait of Hormuz, which normally handles 20% of global energy supply. The world's largest oil buyer slashed imports below 8 million barrels per day in May and June 2026, the first decline since 2016, keeping Brent crude prices around $80-100 per barrel instead of predicted higher levels. However, signs of recovering Chinese imports in July and August pose risks to global oil markets and economic stability.

• China holds approximately 1.4 billion barrels of strategic crude oil inventories (versus 825 million in the U.S.) as of December 2025, representing roughly four months of reserves, which cushioned its economy from the supply shock
• Chinese crude imports rebounded 22% month-over-month in July and 6.2% in August 2026, signaling potential resumed demand that could push oil prices toward Goldman Sachs' forecast of $120 per barrel
• China's energy diversification strategy, with coal still supplying 53% of its energy mix, allowed the economy to substitute away from oil during price spikes, validating years of government investment in stockpiling and clean energy

Chinese AI chipmakers including Huawei and Cambricon have sharply raised prices for current and next-generation AI processors by 20-50%, driven by soaring costs for high-bandwidth memory (HBM). A worldwide HBM shortage, exacerbated by U.S. export controls tightened in December 2024, is forcing Chinese companies to rely on expensive grey-market supplies as they attempt to replace Nvidia products with domestic alternatives.

• Huawei's Ascend 950DT accelerator card price increased to above 250,000 yuan ($37,255), up 20-50% from two months ago, while older models like the 950PR rose 30% to over 80,000 yuan
• U.S. export controls on advanced HBM forced Chinese chipmakers to source memory through grey-market channels at several times the price paid by buyers outside China
• The shortage is disrupting supply chains, with Iluvatar CoreX doubling GPU shipments to ByteDance and diverting chips from internal use to meet demand in China's $50 billion AI chip market

Global cleantech investment declined 17% to $770 billion in the first half of 2026, driven primarily by a slowdown in China, the world's largest cleantech investor. While China faced pressure from policy transitions that reduced renewable power investments, the U.S., Europe, and India showed stable or rising investment levels in solar and wind sectors.

• Solar manufacturing investment fell sharply by 62% to $8.8 billion due to overcapacity issues, while solar power generation investment dropped 33% in the first half
• China's decline was partly due to frontloading of investments in early 2025 ahead of policy changes, bringing first-half 2026 investment roughly back to 2024 levels of $762 billion
• Regional investment patterns are shifting as other markets like India play a growing role in solar manufacturing, with announced manufacturing investment showing signs of potential recovery in coming quarters

Oil prices extended gains Thursday, with Brent crude rising above $101 per barrel after the U.S. military destroyed five Iranian oil tankers in retaliation for attacks on an American warship. The escalating U.S.-Iran conflict, now in its seventh month, is raising concerns about supply disruptions and the potential for prices to surge above $120 per barrel.

• Brent crude futures gained 0.62% to $101.84 per barrel, while U.S. crude advanced 1.01% to $96.06, fully unwinding selloffs from June-July
• Goldman Sachs warns that intensifying shipping attacks could push oil prices above $120 per barrel as the conflict tightens physical markets
• White House advisers have privately told President Trump the Iran conflict could persist through the remainder of his term, according to the Wall Street Journal

US stocks fell for a third consecutive session on Wednesday as oil prices surged above $100 per barrel and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.857%, its highest level since November 2023. The Dow dropped 405 points while investors await key inflation data (PPI Thursday, CPI Friday) and assess Federal Reserve rate hike expectations, now at roughly 60% for next week's meeting.

• Brent crude settled at $101.21/barrel (up 3.36%) and WTI at $96.05 (up 3.25%) on Middle East supply concerns involving US-Iran tensions, marking the highest settlements since May
• The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.857% despite the Treasury Department tripling debt buybacks to $6 billion, below market expectations of $7-10 billion
• Energy was the only S&P 500 sector to gain while the broader index fell 0.48%, remaining about 2% below its August 13 record but still up roughly 12% for 2026

Venezuelan opposition-controlled boards that have overseen U.S. refiner Citgo Petroleum for seven years are preparing to dissolve as soon as this month. The change follows interim President Delcy Rodriguez's shake-up after her government replaced Nicolas Maduro's administration and gained formal recognition from Washington in January. The transition is occurring without prior discussion with the outgoing boards.

• Rodriguez's administration has replaced law firms that represented Venezuela and state-run oil company PDVSA in lawsuits and arbitration cases abroad
• The supervising boards are no longer recognized as valid by political and legal counterparties, forcing their dissolution
• The opposition boards had controlled Citgo oversight since 2018, but lost authority after the U.S.-backed government transition earlier this year

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is speaking at the Republican midterm convention in Dallas, marking the first time in 50 years a sitting Treasury secretary has addressed a national political convention. This comes as the Treasury Department intervenes in bond markets to calm stress, raising concerns that his partisan political role could undermine the market credibility essential to managing U.S. debt effectively.

• Bessent's convention speech coincides with Treasury buyback operations in long-term debt; the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.84% Wednesday, higher than any point in Trump's current term
• Market analysts warn that Bessent's value to the president depends on his market credibility, and if he's seen as prioritizing politics, he could enter a 'downward spiral of escalating demands and weakening effectiveness'
• The last Treasury secretary to speak at a national convention was William E. Simon in 1976; former Secretary Janet Yellen stated she avoided political events to comply with the Hatch Act

The U.S. Treasury Department announced it will buy back up to $6 billion in longer-term debt (10-year and 20-year bonds) in an operation this week, as bond yields climbed to their highest levels since 2023. The 10-year Treasury yield rose above 4.85% and the 20-year yield exceeded 5.3%, reflecting market concerns about persistent inflation and the government's fiscal position.

• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent increased the typical buyback amount from $2 billion to at least $4 billion through early November, with this week's operation reaching $6 billion for securities maturing between 2037 and 2046
• Market analysts view the buybacks as insufficient given the U.S. gross national debt of $36 trillion and projected annual deficits exceeding $2 trillion, with competing debt issuance from corporate AI infrastructure financing
• Experts suggest the U.S. faces a structural debt crisis that cannot be resolved through growth alone, with fiscal reform being necessary but politically unlikely

Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled at the Jackson Hole Symposium that rate hikes are needed to combat inflation that has missed the Fed's 2% target for 65 consecutive months. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to buy long-maturity bonds to contain yields, creating a policy conflict. This divergence between monetary tightening and fiscal easing puts the Fed and Treasury at odds, complicating the outlook for investors.

• Inflation remains elevated with the Fed missing its 2% target for over five years; unemployment at 4.1% suggests full employment, shifting focus entirely to price stability
• Treasury plans to increase quarterly refunding from $2 billion to $4 billion to buy older Treasuries and lower long-end yields, but this conflicts with Fed rate hikes that increase short-term borrowing costs
• The 2-year Treasury yield has risen a full percentage point since February (equivalent to four rate hikes), while fed funds futures forecast two to three rate hikes into 2027 as markets demand credibility

Strong payroll data has increased the likelihood of a September Fed rate hike, but the economic context differs significantly from 2022. While inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target, the gap is much smaller than during the previous hiking cycle, suggesting any additional tightening will be modest rather than aggressive.

• Core PCE inflation currently stands at 3.3% with the fed funds rate at 3.5-3.75%, compared to 5.6% inflation with near-zero rates in early 2022, giving the Fed less catching up to do
• A September rate hike is expected to have limited impact on long-term Treasury yields, with potential support for the long end of the curve as the Fed reinforces its inflation-fighting credibility
• The resilient labor market provides the Fed room to continue fighting inflation despite concerns about AI-driven productivity gains potentially weakening future hiring

The Dow Jones broke below key support levels after an August warning signal, declining from near 54,821 to around 52,450 by September 9, 2026. Elliott Wave analysis suggests this may be the start of a larger multi-month correction targeting the 43,047-47,437 support zone, similar in magnitude to the 2022 decline, rather than just a short-term pullback.

• The August signal—two consecutive sessions with open and close above the upper Bollinger Band, plus a shooting star pattern—has triggered a breakdown below the 50-day moving average and the May uptrend line
• Elliott Wave count indicates the index topped at the ideal third-wave target (54,744 vs. 54,821 actual) of an ending diagonal structure that began at the 2020 COVID low
• A sustained reclaim above the 53,300-750 zone would argue for only a contained shakeout, but failure to do so keeps the larger fourth-wave correction scenario toward 43,047-47,437 in play over coming months

U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia Jeanine Pirro announced sanctions against Xinbi Guarantee, a Chinese-linked online marketplace accused of facilitating cryptocurrency scams targeting Americans. The Treasury Department designated Xinbi as a transnational criminal organization, and authorities seized $52 million in cryptocurrency and shut down its Telegram channels. One victim reportedly lost $800,000 in these schemes.

• Xinbi operated primarily on Telegram, selling scam tools including fake investment websites and money laundering services to cybercriminals targeting Americans
• The U.S. government has restrained $938 million total linked to such cryptocurrency scam operations, with $52 million seized from Xinbi's network specifically
• Separately, U.S. authorities assisted Madagascar in raiding 13 scam centers allegedly run by Chinese crime groups, resulting in 500 arrests and 30 Chinese leaders repatriated to China

Clay, a New York-based AI software startup that automates sales and marketing tasks, raised $115 million in Series D funding at a $7.1 billion valuation, more than doubling its value from a year ago. The company develops AI agents that analyze business data to help sales teams make decisions and execute actions, serving clients including Google and Anthropic.

• The funding round was led by Wellington with participation from Sequoia, StepStone, Andreessen Horowitz, and Perennial
• Clay's valuation more than doubled to $7.1 billion from $3 billion in August 2024 when it raised $100 million led by CapitalG
• The company, founded in 2017, is expanding from B2B data aggregation to building AI agents that can autonomously help companies grow

The Treasury Department announced it will buy back $6 billion in longer-term government debt, triple the normal buyback level, in an effort to maintain bond market liquidity and potentially limit rising Treasury yields. The operation targets 10- and 20-year notes as yields have climbed to levels not seen since before the 2008 financial crisis. Markets reacted negatively, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.841%.

• The $6 billion buyback triples normal operations and exceeds Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's August 19 commitment to at least double buybacks of already-issued securities
• The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.841%, up nearly 4 basis points, reaching highs not seen since prior to the 2008 global financial crisis
• Despite the operation's stated goal of maintaining market liquidity, the market reaction was negative with yields continuing to climb rather than decline

ASE Technology (ASX) has surged 16% over three months, outperforming the semiconductor industry's 9.1% decline, driven by strong demand for its advanced packaging (LEAP) services amid AI growth. The company expects LEAP revenues to exceed $3.5 billion in 2026 and double by 2027, with ATM gross margins reaching above 30% in Q4. However, its EMS segment faces margin pressure from rising component costs, and the stock trades at a premium valuation of 22X forward P/E.

• LEAP revenues are tracking ahead of the $3.5 billion 2026 target, with management planning an additional $2 billion CapEx investment and targeting a doubling of LEAP revenues in 2027
• ATM gross margin improved to 27.3% in Q2 2026 from 21.9% year-over-year, with expectations to exceed 30% in Q4 2026 as higher-margin LEAP volumes grow
• EMS segment gross margin declined to 8.9% in Q2 2026 due to higher component costs and unfavorable product mix, with operating margin falling to 2.4% from 3.0% sequentially
• The stock trades at a forward P/E of 22.00X, above industry peers GlobalFoundries (18.78X), United Microelectronics (18.21X), and Synaptics (17.66X), warranting a cautious Hold rating

Private equity firm Silver Lake is merging two French software companies, Cegid and Silae, in a deal valued at over €10 billion ($11.6 billion). The merger aims to create a comprehensive business management platform with enhanced AI capabilities as the software sector faces disruption from artificial intelligence development.

• The combined entity will bring together payroll, accounting, e-invoicing, and digital finance services, creating a 1,400-person developer team focused on AI investment
• Expected annual revenue of the merged company will be €1.6 billion ($1.9 billion), targeting SMBs and professional advisors in Europe
• The deal comes as software stocks have experienced volatility in 2026 due to 'SaaSpocalypse' fears, though the sector saw its best month since 2001 in May