General Market News

Senator Thom Tillis is maintaining his opposition to blocking the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair. The article appears to be breaking news regarding the contentious nomination process, though full details are not available in the provided content.

• Tillis refuses to change his stance on the Kevin Warsh Fed chair confirmation
• This is classified as breaking news, suggesting an ongoing and developing political situation
• The confirmation process involves Trump's Fed chair pick, indicating potential partisan divisions

Financial advisers are urging investors to avoid extreme reactions as Middle East conflict creates volatile market conditions, with commodities and stocks whipsawing on conflicting war developments. Market strategists recommend patience and diversification rather than attempting to time moves based on rapidly changing headlines about U.S.-Iran hostilities.

• Oil prices have swung dramatically, with West Texas crude moving from $115 to $85 per barrel, while gold and stocks also experienced whipsaw action on conflicting war signals
• UBS advises investors to plan portfolios around a six-month elevated conflict scenario and space out portfolio adjustments gradually rather than making extreme moves
• Goldman Sachs' Iran expert warned that Iran's leadership vacuum means a 'decentralized war machine' is operating on 'autopilot' with no clear authority to guarantee cessation of hostilities

Kevin Warsh, set to become Federal Reserve chair in May, faces a challenging economic environment combining weak labor markets with persistent inflation driven by the Iraq war's impact on energy prices. The situation creates a 'perfect storm' requiring tough choices between the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and full employment. Trump expects rate cuts, but stagflationary pressures may limit policy options.

• Oil prices briefly surged over $100 per barrel due to the Iraq war, with fertilizer costs jumping 15%, threatening to push headline inflation above 3% while the labor market weakens
• Manufacturing costs are rising with an ISM price gauge at elevated levels, partly driven by Trump's tariffs, creating stagflationary pressures particularly in goods sectors
• Consumer spending shows widening inequality, with top earners' spending up 4.2% annually versus just 0.6% for lower earners - the widest gap since 2015 - complicating Fed policy decisions

Emerging market stocks delivered strong returns of 30.6% in 2025 and continue to perform well in 2026, driven by AI-related technology demand, a weaker U.S. dollar, and robust global trade. Financial analysts recommend emerging markets as a meaningful portfolio diversifier, particularly for investors heavily weighted toward U.S. stocks, citing distinct return drivers and attractive valuations despite recent gains.

• The MSCI Emerging Markets Index posted a 30.6% return in 2025 and continues strong performance in 2026, supported by AI semiconductor demand from Taiwan and South Korea, along with a weaker dollar easing debt burdens
• Emerging markets offer diversified tech exposure through AI semiconductor supply chain companies, which differs from U.S. platform/software concentration, providing distinct portfolio diversification
• Despite recent gains, emerging markets trade at a forward P/E ratio of 13.1 versus 21.3 for the S&P 500, offering attractive valuations that could serve as a portfolio ballast during downturns

Global equity markets showed divergent performance in January 2026, with emerging markets surging 8.85% while U.S. growth stocks fell 1.51%, driven largely by Microsoft's 11% decline on capital expenditure concerns. Commodities jumped over 10% as precious metals hit new highs before a sharp late-month selloff, while bonds posted minimal gains as rising rates led markets to push back expected Fed rate cut timing from March to June.

• Performance broadened within U.S. equities: small caps gained 5.35% and value stocks rose 4.56%, marking small caps' best month since August 2025, while Microsoft alone drove most of the Russell 1000 Growth decline
• Commodity volatility was extreme: despite a 25% single-day drop in silver and 9% drop in gold on January 30th, both precious metals still finished with near double-digit gains; crude oil rose 14% and natural gas surged nearly 40% on geopolitical tensions and cold weather
• Fixed income markets repriced Fed expectations significantly as futures now indicate the first 2026 rate cut in June versus earlier investor expectations of a March cut at 50%+ probability and April cut at nearly 80% probability

SpaceX is expected to announce an IPO potentially as early as Q2 2026, which could become the largest IPO in history with an estimated valuation around $1.5 trillion. The company plans to raise approximately $50 billion and may structure the offering to give Tesla shareholders preferential access, possibly through a SPAC merger with Pershing Square SPARC Holdings.

• SpaceX dominates 70% to 80% of the commercial space market, which is valued at over $500 billion with a projected 12% CAGR through at least 2031, doubling the market by early next decade
• Starlink has over 10 million active subscribers and generates steady cash flow to fund capital-intensive projects like Starship, the largest fully reusable rocket ever built capable of carrying 150 metric tons or 250-330 Blackwell GPUs
• SpaceX acquired xAI in early 2026 to develop AI capabilities and space-based data centers using Starlink infrastructure, with Elon Musk proposing a deal structure that rewards Tesla shareholders with preferential IPO access

US large-cap equities declined in February 2024 amid AI capex concerns and geopolitical tensions, with the Nasdaq 100 falling 2.3% and S&P 500 down 0.8%, though market leadership broadened as equal-weight and international stocks outperformed. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady in March following stronger-than-expected jobs data and elevated inflation readings. Historical analysis suggests equities typically recover quickly after geopolitical events, with the S&P 500 posting positive returns 67% of the time three months after major tensions since 1940.

• Market leadership broadened beyond mega-caps as S&P 500 Equal Weight (+3.6%), international developed equities (+6.2%), and US mid-caps (+4.1%) outperformed their cap-weighted counterparts, while gold rose 8.7% and silver gained 12.7%
• Core PPI rose 0.8% month-over-month in January (versus 0.3% expected), marking the highest monthly increase since March 2022, reinforcing Fed caution with markets pricing 94% probability of rates holding steady in March
• Magnificent 7 tech companies plan to increase AI infrastructure spending by roughly 58% in 2026 to over $700 billion, though return on investment remains uncertain and higher capex is pressuring free cash flow
• Private credit sector faced stress as Blue Owl Capital sold $1.4 billion in assets and ended quarterly redemptions in its retail fund, highlighting liquidity mismatches between long-term illiquid loans and investor withdrawal expectations

Rising gasoline prices and stock market volatility stemming from the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran are threatening consumer spending across income levels, potentially undermining expected U.S. economic growth in 2026. Gas prices have jumped 17% to over $3.50 per gallon nationally, while oil prices have fluctuated wildly between $90-$116 per barrel. The Federal Reserve faces a difficult balancing act between inflation concerns and potential recession risks as the conflict persists.

• National average gas prices rose 17% to $3.50/gallon, with analysts warning $4/gallon is possible if the conflict continues and Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions persist
• Lower-income households may cut spending in other categories due to higher fuel costs, while wealthy consumers face uncertainty from volatile stock markets that have fallen from recent highs
• Fed policymakers confront dual risks: potential job market weakness (after unexpected February job losses) combined with broader inflation pressures if oil prices remain in the $85-$100 range for several months

Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz, RiverFront Investment Group analyzes three scenarios for investors: a quick ceasefire, muddle-through conflict, or wider war. The firm remains constructive on US equities due to North America's energy independence but has activated risk management alerts for lower-risk portfolios, with key S&P 500 support levels at 6,616 and 6,490.

• Historical data shows acute geopolitical crises have typically been buying opportunities, with stocks rising over 3, 6, and 12 months following 9 major events from the Cuban Missile Crisis to Iraq 2003
• Three scenarios outlined: 'Quick Ceasefire' (oil $55-70, favoring international stocks), 'Muddle Through' (oil $70-85, S&P 500 range 6,500-7,000), or 'Wider War' (oil $85-125+, favoring cash and commodities)
• Key risk triggers that would shift the firm more cautious include an Arab state attacking Iran, coordinated Iran-linked attacks on Western soil, or Russian/Chinese military intervention supporting Iran

Deutsche Bank upgraded the U.S. and European technology sector to 'neutral' from 'underweight' and turned 'overweight' on software, signaling that the six-month selloff driven by AI disruption fears has likely ended. The bank cited resilient earnings and expectations that no major company anticipates negative AI revenue impact through 2026, with software valuations now at historically thin premiums.

• The upgrade follows a sharp global software selloff over the past six months that left valuations at historically low premiums to the broader market
• Deutsche Bank notes earnings have proven resilient and no major company expects negative revenue impact from AI through 2026
• The bank also highlighted opportunities in German cyclical sectors like industrials and construction materials, supported by Berlin's fiscal stimulus despite recent declines

Global equity markets are attempting to recover on Tuesday, March 10, 2026, after significant recent declines attributed to war-related headlines and diminished risk appetite. Key European indices (Germany's DAX, Spain's IBEX) and Canada's TSX are showing tentative upward movement with technical analysts identifying crucial support and resistance levels for each market.

• Germany's DAX is testing its 200-day EMA around 24,100, with a breakout potentially targeting 25,000, while support holds at 23,000
• Spain's IBEX is stabilizing above 17,000 with the 200-day EMA providing support; a move above the 50-day EMA could push the index toward 18,250
• Canada's TSX remains the strongest performer, supported by financial and commodity sectors, with a break above 33,500 potentially targeting 35,000

Argentine President Javier Milei is pitching his country's economic turnaround to Wall Street investors during 'Argentina Week' in New York, despite challenging global conditions including rising oil prices and Middle East conflict that are rattling emerging markets. The roadshow aims to convince financiers that Argentina's fiscal reforms and U.S.-backed stabilization efforts remain attractive investment opportunities.

• Argentina secured a major legislative win with labor reform approval by Congress, part of broader spending cuts and deregulation efforts to restore stability after years of deficits and currency crises
• U.S. backing has become central to the pitch, including a February reciprocal trade agreement and liquidity facility that helped prevent a peso run before October 2025 midterm elections
• Global headwinds complicate the message: oil prices up nearly 30% this month to $90/barrel due to U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran, while a strengthening dollar (up 4% since late January) is drawing investors away from emerging markets

U.S. existing home sales rose 1.7% month-over-month in February to 4.09 million units annually, but remained 1.4% below year-ago levels. The housing market faces continued challenges from sluggish inventory growth, with only a 3.8-month supply available despite mortgage rates being lower than the previous year. Home prices remained relatively flat with a median of $398,000, up just 0.3% year-over-year.

• Housing inventory increased modestly to 1.29 million units (up 4.9% year-over-year), but supply growth is 'sluggish' compared to a 6-month supply needed for market balance
• Wage growth is now outpacing home price growth by almost 4 percentage points, and there are 6 million more jobs than in 2019, yet annual home sales are down by 1 million units
• Sales were strongest in the $1 million-plus category while lower-priced homes saw sharp declines; first-time buyers represented 34% of sales, up from 31% a year ago

Boaz Weinstein of Saba Capital Management warns that problems in private credit are 'multiplying by the quarter' due to liquidity mismatches between promised and actual redemption capacity. His firm, alongside Cox Capital, has launched tender offers to purchase stakes in distressed private credit funds from investors seeking exits. Private wealth flows tracked by Jefferies were down 19% in Q1, with redemption rates expected to increase across retail credit products.

• Saba and Cox Capital launched a tender offer for 6.9% of Blue Owl Capital Corp. II, which had halted quarterly redemptions and sold $1.4 billion in assets to provide liquidity
• Weinstein identifies Cliffwater as a firm to 'watch most closely,' predicting redemption rates between 10-20% due to its fund-of-funds structure limiting control over fulfilling redemptions
• Despite criticism, Weinstein bought shares in Apollo and Ares, viewing major private credit managers as long-term winners while shorting public credit through derivatives

US stocks opened mostly flat on Tuesday as investors monitored volatile oil prices amid ongoing military conflict with Iran. President Trump's comments suggesting the military campaign was nearing completion helped calm investor nerves, while crude prices pulled back roughly 6-7% from earlier highs but remained near $90 per barrel.

• West Texas Intermediate crude fell 6% to around $89 per barrel and Brent declined 7% to approximately $92 per barrel after sharp gains earlier in the week
• Trump stated US military objectives in Iran were 'very complete, pretty much' and indicated progress was faster than his initial four-to-five-week estimate
• Analysts warn oil prices could spike above $120 per barrel if supply disruptions continue, while G7 energy ministers discussed potential strategic oil reserve releases

Oil prices surged back near $90 per barrel after Iran threatened to block regional oil exports and launched new attacks on Israel, UAE, and Qatar, prompting the U.S. to announce its most intense strikes on Iran. The conflict has disrupted roughly 20% of global oil consumption through the Strait of Hormuz, representing the largest oil supply loss in history. The S&P 500 slipped 0.2% as energy markets remain volatile amid the escalating Iran war.

• Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted 20 million barrels per day (20% of global consumption), forcing Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and UAE to cut output due to storage capacity limits
• Iraq reduced production to just 1.3 million barrels per day from 4.3 million before the war, while Iran's missile attacks are down 90% and drone attacks down 83% since day one
• Major oil stocks declined despite rising crude prices, with Occidental Petroleum down 3%, ConocoPhillips down 1.8%, and G7 energy leaders considering joint petroleum reserve releases to limit price spikes

Central and Eastern Europe has become more resilient to energy supply shocks following diversification efforts since Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine, according to S&P Global. The region's improved energy security provides buffers against economic impacts from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, though vulnerabilities remain in countries like Hungary that still rely heavily on Russian energy.

• Poland leads regional diversification with LNG terminals, pipeline links to neighbors, 6 gigawatts of planned offshore wind, and independence from Russian oil supplies
• Czech Republic ended Russian oil reliance in 2025 through TAL pipeline upgrades and now receives gas from Norway and LNG via Dutch terminals
• Hungary remains highly vulnerable with 75% of gas and nearly all oil from Russia, resulting in the hardest-hit currency and bond markets in Central Europe during recent Middle East tensions

US stock futures declined on March 10, 2026, after mixed signals from the White House regarding the Iran conflict. While President Trump suggested the war could end 'very soon', Defense Minister Pete Hegseth announced Tuesday would bring 'the most intense day of strikes inside Iran', creating market uncertainty. Oil prices fluctuated sharply, rebounding above $90 per barrel after initially plunging from $116 to $82.

• Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures fell 0.3% while Nasdaq futures dropped 0.2%, paring earlier gains after Hegseth's escalation comments contradicted Trump's de-escalation rhetoric
• WTI crude oil rebounded above $90 after crashing from Monday's peak of $116 to as low as $82, with G7 energy ministers scheduled to discuss emergency oil reserve releases
• Markets had rallied Monday with the Nasdaq up 1.4% to 22,696 and S&P 500 gaining 0.8% to 6,796 on initial optimism about conflict resolution

Top-performing mutual funds are significantly reducing positions in 10 major stocks, led by Alphabet, MercadoLibre, and Warner Bros. Discovery, according to Morningstar analysis. The selling activity signals concerns about AI spending returns and reflects significant sector rotation beneath the surface of stable market indexes. The analysis focused on actively managed funds with Morningstar's highest ratings (gold, silver, or bronze) holding 50 or fewer stocks.

• Alphabet is being sold despite heavy AI investments, with some fund managers questioning whether massive spending on AI chips and large language models will generate adequate returns
• MercadoLibre faces fund redemptions despite solid earnings growth, while Warner Bros. Discovery sells reflect the Paramount Skydance acquisition removing upside potential
• Other major sells include Apple (-4.4% YTD), TE Connectivity (-9.3%), and American International Group (-9.3%), while some sold stocks like ASML (+24.5%) and Deere (+28.8%) have performed strongly year-to-date

QPlay, a hybrid board games developer, will become the first company to list on Britain's new PISCES private stock market, operated by JP Jenkins. PISCES is a new regulatory framework introduced in 2024 to boost investment in private companies and revitalize London's capital markets after declining IPO activity in recent years.

• PISCES (private intermittent securities and capital exchange system) allows companies to enable intermittent trading of shares while remaining private, without full public listing requirements
• JP Jenkins won approval to operate a PISCES market and will conduct the first liquidity event, with the London Stock Exchange also approved and planning its inaugural deal after QPlay's
• The initiative is part of broader UK capital markets reforms aimed at increasing growth and IPO rates in London, competing with similar platforms like Nasdaq's long-established private market segment