UK exports to U.S. plunge by 25% after Trump's 'liberation day' tariffs blitz

CNBC | May 01, 2026 at 03:19 PM UTC
Bearish 83% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • UK exports to the US dropped by £1.5 billion (24.7%) after tariffs were introduced, with car exports particularly affected and remaining below pre-tariff levels
  • Trump announced removal of tariffs on Scotch whisky 'in honor' of King Charles, though the industry represents only 23% of Scottish goods exports and will not resolve the overall trade deficit
  • UK exporters face a 'triple squeeze' from higher tariff costs, increased employment taxes, and input price pressures, eroding margins and international competitiveness

AI Summary

UK Exports to U.S. Plunge 25% Following Trump Tariffs

Key Facts and Figures

UK goods exports to the United States fell by £1.5 billion, or 24.7%, following President Trump's "liberation day" tariffs introduced in April 2025, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The decline excludes precious metals and has persisted over the 12-month period since implementation.

Market Impact

The tariff shock has reversed the UK's trade position with its largest export market. For three consecutive months starting early 2026, Britain has run a trade deficit with the U.S. as exports remained depressed while imports increased. Automotive exports have been particularly affected, remaining below pre-tariff levels throughout the period.

Trade Agreement Details

The UK became the first country to negotiate a trade deal with the Trump administration after the tariff announcement. However, the agreement still imposed a 10% blanket tariff on goods imported to the U.S., ending the previous zero-tariff environment. Scotch whisky and other spirits faced additional duties.

Recent Developments

Trump announced this week the elimination of tariffs on Scotch whisky "in honor" of King Charles III and Queen Camilla following their state visit. While significant—the Scotch whisky industry employs 40,000 people in Scotland and represents 23% of Scottish goods exports in 2025—analysts note this alone won't resolve the broader trade deficit.

Expert Analysis

Samuel Edwards of Ebury warned that the downturn will likely impact overall UK growth. Exporters face a "triple squeeze" of higher tariff costs, increased employment taxes, and input price pressures, severely eroding margins and international competitiveness.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 75%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 85%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 90%
Consensus Bearish 83%