General Market News

Nvidia, the world's most valuable company at over $5.1 trillion, reported exceptional financial results that exceeded Wall Street expectations, with gross profit reaching $133.3 billion in the first half of the year. The chipmaker's revenue surged 106% to $96.2 billion in the three months to July, and it forecast 70% revenue growth for next financial year, signaling continued strength in the AI boom. The company's performance has become a key indicator for both AI industry health and the broader global economy.

• Data centre revenue hit a record $89 billion in the three months to July, up 117% year-over-year, driven by demand for AI infrastructure
• Nvidia now comprises more than 7% of the entire S&P 500 index, making it a significant market player whose performance impacts global economies
• The company announced a major deal with Amazon Web Services (AWS) to deploy two million AI-powered graphics processing units

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Wednesday banning certain foreign-produced equipment from the U.S. electricity grid, declaring a national emergency over foreign threats to bulk-power systems. The order prohibits the purchase and installation of foreign electric equipment and associated software that could pose cybersecurity or operational risks.

• The order declares a national emergency citing 'unusual and extraordinary foreign threat' from foreign-produced bulk-power systems with potential national security vulnerabilities
• The ban covers foreign-produced bulk-power system electric equipment, including critical software and digital capabilities that could create cybersecurity risks
• The U.S. Energy Secretary is directed to impose conditions on continued use and operation of existing foreign equipment already installed in the grid

A CNBC Fed Survey reveals that 80% of economists want Federal Reserve Chairman Warsh to provide more insight into his economic views ahead of his first keynote speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. The survey also shows widespread skepticism about Treasury Secretary Bessent's efforts to control bond yields, with 77% believing those efforts will fail.

• Warsh has adopted a minimal communication approach, declining to offer economic views or policy guidance to get an 'unfiltered' market view, breaking from predecessor practices
• Survey respondents are divided on the rate outlook: 53% expect rate hikes over the next year, 30% see cuts, and 16% forecast no change, with 40% probability of a September hike in futures markets
• Treasury's efforts to tamp down long-term yields through increased purchases of long-dated securities are viewed as ineffective, with the 10-year yield forecast to remain between 4.60% and 4.70% through end of next year

The Trump administration plans to announce new drug-pricing agreements with midsize biotech companies on Monday, according to Bloomberg News sources. The report could not be immediately verified by Reuters. This represents a continuation of administration efforts to address pharmaceutical pricing.

• Announcement expected Monday involving midsize biotech companies, not major pharmaceutical firms
• Details of the agreements and which companies are involved have not been disclosed
• The initiative is part of the administration's broader drug pricing policy efforts

Despite a weak July jobs report showing a loss of 23,000 payrolls and 103,000 in downward revisions, the underlying U.S. economy shows resilience with low layoffs, plentiful job openings, and strong private demand. All four dimensions of Shelton Capital Management's Recession Tracker turned positive for the first time in months, maintaining a 'Green | Low Risk' aggregate assessment.

• Real Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchasers, a cleaner measure of core private demand, accelerated to 3.9% in Q2 from 1.7% in Q1, significantly outpacing headline GDP growth of 1.5%
• The labor market weakness appears to be a supply issue rather than demand problem, with historically low layoffs and abundant job openings, while 264,000 workers left the labor force in July
• Markets recovered in a V-shaped pattern from late-July Iran-driven volatility that pushed VIX up 25% and oil to $92/barrel, following the repeated pattern of geopolitical scares creating buying opportunities

July's PCE inflation data showed headline inflation at 3.7% and core at 3.3%, well above the Fed's 2% target, raising the market-implied probability of a September 2026 rate hike to 44%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, nominated by President Trump with expectations of rate cuts, faces pressure as three FOMC members already voted to hike in July, meaning just four more votes could create a hiking majority.

• Three of 12 FOMC voting members already dissented in favor of hiking rates in July's 9-3 vote to hold, requiring only four additional votes to flip to a rate increase
• July PCE inflation remains 1.3 percentage points above the Fed's 2% target, with headline at 3.7% year-over-year and core at 3.3%
• Warsh has rejected traditional forward guidance and defied White House expectations for rate cuts, with his upcoming Jackson Hole speech on Aug. 28 considered particularly important for signaling policy direction

Russia's NORSI refinery, the country's fourth-largest oil refinery and second-largest gasoline producer, suspended crude oil processing on August 26 following a Ukrainian drone attack in the Nizhny Novgorod region. The attack damaged multiple processing units and infrastructure, leaving all of Lukoil's major Russian refineries now offline. The disruption affects a facility capable of processing 15 million metric tons of crude annually.

• NORSI produces approximately 5 million tons of gasoline and over 5 million tons of diesel annually, along with 2 million tons of fuel oil and 500,000 tons of bitumen
• All of Lukoil's major Russian refineries are now offline: NORSI suspended operations August 26, Perm refinery was hit August 21, and Volgograd refinery halted processing July 31
• The timeline for repairs and resumption of operations remains unclear as drone strikes damaged several processing units, inter-unit infrastructure, and general plant facilities

The White House is pressing the EPA to grant expanded biofuel blending waivers to small oil refineries, aiming to reduce gasoline prices ahead of November midterm elections. The push, led by senior adviser Stephen Miller and the Energy Dominance Council, could exempt 1.2-1.8 billion RINs from the record 26.81 billion gallon biofuel requirement for 2026. This move would benefit oil refiners but anger Midwest agricultural states that depend on strong ethanol mandates.

• The EPA is reviewing 34 waiver requests and initially projected approving around 1 billion RINs, but the White House is pushing for 1.2-1.8 billion RINs in exemptions
• Attorneys general from Iowa, South Dakota, and Missouri oppose expanded waivers, citing refiners' record profits and arguing exemptions undermine economic hardship claims
• The American Soybean Association warns high exemptions could eliminate 500 million gallons of biodiesel demand and cost soybean farmers approximately $1 billion in lost revenue

U.S. stock markets opened nearly flat on Wednesday after July inflation data came in above expectations, with headline PCE rising to 3.7% annually and core PCE at 3.3%. Markets are awaiting Nvidia's earnings report and Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech for further direction on monetary policy and AI-driven growth momentum.

• July PCE inflation rose 0.2% monthly and 3.7% annually, both 0.1 percentage point above consensus, keeping inflation above the Fed's 2% target
• Nvidia, the largest S&P 500 company with over $5 trillion market cap, reports fiscal earnings with Wall Street expecting $2.09 per share amid scrutiny of AI infrastructure spending sustainability
• Markets price roughly one-in-three chance of a Fed rate move in September, with December showing strongest probability for action as policymakers assess persistent inflation

U.S. equity indices are trading cautiously on August 26, 2026, as investors await key catalysts including Nvidia's after-market earnings and Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday. Markets are range-bound with the Nasdaq 100 near 29,245, hovering around the 50-day EMA, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East add to uncertainty.

• The Nasdaq 100 is trapped between 28,500 support and 30,000 resistance, trading flat near its 50-day exponential moving average
• Both Nvidia earnings (due after market close Wednesday) and Friday's Jackson Hole speech will determine whether Fed policy signals turn hawkish or dovish
• Despite short-term hesitation, the S&P 500 remains bullish from a longer-term perspective, with analysts preferring to buy dips

Treasury yields remained largely flat on Tuesday as investors awaited July's personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation data, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, set for release Wednesday morning. The 10-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.647%, while markets also focused on falling oil prices and the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium beginning Thursday.

• The 10-year Treasury yield was unchanged at 4.647%, the 30-year bond yield held at 5.181%, and the 2-year note remained at 4.199%
• Oil prices extended declines with Brent crude falling 2.8% to $86.08 per barrel and U.S. crude down 3% at $79.93, easing inflation concerns amid reports of a potential Iran-Oman deal on Strait of Hormuz transit
• July PCE data and second-quarter GDP estimates are scheduled for Wednesday at 8:30 a.m., with Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh set to speak at Jackson Hole on Friday

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh faces intense scrutiny at this week's Jackson Hole symposium following Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's controversial intervention to increase bond buybacks after 30-year Treasury yields hit a 19-year high. Markets are 'on edge' awaiting Warsh's speech, with analysts warning that failure to address rising yields could push long-term rates above 5.5% and trigger dollar weakness. The event is considered a 'key risk event' as investors seek clarity on Fed policy amid inflation running at 3.7% and concerns about central bank independence.

• Treasury announced it will at least double its maximum bond buyback operation to $4 billion starting Sept. 9, a move criticized by some as undermining the Fed's inflation fight and pressuring central bank independence
• The 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.173% (near 19-year highs) while inflation remains elevated at 3.7% year-over-year in July, above the Fed's target
• Bank of America warns the dollar is vulnerable to extended sell-off if Warsh 'disappoints markets' or focuses solely on structural themes rather than providing clear guidance on inflation and policy response

Manpreet Kohli, the 45-year-old CEO of cryptocurrency company Saitama, lost his UK extradition fight and faces trial in the U.S. on wire fraud and market manipulation charges. U.S. prosecutors allege he and co-conspirators secretly sold Saitama tokens worth billions while publicly claiming to hold them, with Kohli personally profiting around $20 million. A British judge rejected his challenge, and the case now goes to ministers for final approval.

• Saitama's ethereum-based token reached a market value of $7.5 billion at its peak before the alleged fraud was uncovered
• The case involved the FBI's first-ever creation of a digital token specifically designed to investigate and expose cryptocurrency crime
• Kohli remains free on £200,000 ($272,420) bail and can still appeal, though ministerial approval of extradition is typically a formality

U.S. software stocks have experienced extreme volatility in 2026, with the S&P 500 software and services index falling 33% from its October 2025 peak before bouncing 33% during earnings season, then declining again. The swings are driven by momentum trading, leveraged ETFs, and uncertainty about AI's impact on the sector, despite second-quarter earnings growth of 24.4% exceeding the 16.4% expectation.

• Leveraged ETFs have exploded from 28 single-stock products at end of 2023 to 486 currently, with about 63 focused on software companies, amplifying daily price swings through mandatory rebalancing
• Microsoft exemplified the volatility with an eight-session 29% surge following its July 29 earnings, highlighting how momentum trading magnifies sector movements beyond fundamental improvements
• The index remains down more than 3% year-to-date and over 12% below its October record, with investors cautious about AI evolution despite better-than-expected earnings results

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, rose 0.2% monthly and 3.7% annually in July 2026, exceeding economist expectations. The annual increase came in higher than the forecasted 3.6%, while core PCE matched expectations at 3.3% year-over-year. Inflation remains well above the Fed's target, potentially influencing future monetary policy decisions.

• Monthly PCE increased 0.2%, matching core PCE's monthly gain, with annual PCE at 3.7% versus the expected 3.6%
• Core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose 3.3% annually, meeting expectations but still significantly above the Fed's typical 2% target
• The hotter-than-expected headline inflation reading may complicate the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions going forward

Mark Walter's TWG Global issued a statement denying fraud allegations and defending itself against what it called 'multipronged attacks' amid federal criminal and civil investigations. The investigations focus on accounting for related-party financial transactions by two of Walter's insurance companies under the Group 1001 umbrella.

• TWG Global stated 'despite what has been reported, there has been no fraud' at the company or its subsidiaries
• The company and Group 1001 insurance companies have presented a plan to address regulatory concerns
• TWG attributed recent reports to 'unnamed sources with self-serving interests' and asserted it stands behind the integrity of its business

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure, the personal consumption expenditures price index, showed core prices increased 3.3% annually in July. This came in below economist expectations of 3.6% year-over-year growth, suggesting some easing in inflationary pressures that the Fed monitors closely for policy decisions.

• Core PCE price index rose 3.3% annually in July, below the 3.6% forecast by Dow Jones-surveyed economists
• Monthly PCE inflation was expected to increase 0.1% according to consensus estimates
• The PCE index is the Fed's preferred gauge for tracking inflation trends and informing monetary policy decisions

US stock futures were flat Wednesday morning as traders awaited two critical events: core PCE inflation data at 8:30 am ET (expected to hold at 3.3%) and Nvidia's earnings after the close. The dual catalysts come as investors seek evidence that massive AI infrastructure spending is delivering returns, while the bond market remains on edge ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole appearance.

• Core PCE, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, is expected to remain at 3.3%; a higher reading could complicate Fed policy ahead of Jackson Hole
• Nvidia's networking business surged from roughly $3 billion quarterly two years ago to nearly $15 billion last quarter, with analysts expecting close to $17 billion this quarter—representing 200% year-over-year growth versus 77% for compute
• The Nvidia results serve as a broader health check for the AI trade, as investors increasingly demand proof that substantial AI infrastructure investments are generating tangible returns

China's CNOOC Ltd reported record first-half net profit, driven by higher oil prices related to the Iran war and increased production. Oil and gas sales revenue jumped 20% to 206.1 billion yuan as the company's average realized oil price rose 23.6% to $85.49 per barrel.

• Net oil and gas production reached a record 398.7 million barrels of oil equivalent, up 3.7%, with crude oil and liquids production increasing 4.8% to 310.3 million barrels
• The company maintained its annual production target of 780-800 million boe and capital expenditure guidance of 112-122 billion yuan, with first-half capex totaling 62 billion yuan
• CNOOC made four new oil and gas discoveries in China including in Bohai Bay, and secured three new exploration blocks in Brazil and Indonesia

Mortgage rates rose to 6.78% for 30-year fixed-rate loans, the highest level in three weeks, causing total mortgage application volume to drop 1% for the week. Refinance applications fell 17% year-over-year while purchase applications declined 5% compared to the same period last year, indicating weakening demand across the housing market.

• The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 6.78% from 6.77%, with refinance applications falling 2% week-over-week and down 17% from a year ago when rates were only 9 basis points lower
• Purchase applications decreased 0.3% for the week and were 5% lower year-over-year, with FHA applications particularly weak at down 7% over the week
• The average refinance loan size hit its lowest level since June 2025, while the purchase market has shown notable slowdown over the past two months