General Market News

The U.S. fourth-quarter GDP growth was revised sharply downward to just 0.7%, significantly below the consensus estimate of 1.5%. Meanwhile, January core inflation measured by the PCE price index came in at 3.1%, meeting expectations, while headline inflation was 2.9%.

• Fourth-quarter GDP revised down to 0.7%, less than half the expected 1.5% growth rate
• January core PCE inflation held at 3.1% as expected, with headline inflation at 2.9%
• The significant GDP downward revision signals potential economic slowdown despite persistent inflation above the Federal Reserve's 2% target

Emerging market bond and equity funds experienced reduced inflows in the week ending March 11, 2026, as investors fled to safer assets amid the Iran conflict and rising energy prices. The conflict threatens to end a 'goldilocks' period for EM assets, with analysts warning of potential stagflation risks, though year-to-date EM debt funds still show record $21 billion inflows.

• Global-mandated EM funds saw $1.1 billion in outflows in the past week, reversing the prior week's $3.2 billion in inflows, according to Morgan Stanley citing EPFR data
• Barclays warns that spiking energy prices from the Middle East conflict have shifted the narrative from a 'goldilocks' environment to potential stagflation (low growth and high inflation)
• Despite recent volatility, EM debt funds have attracted a record $21 billion year-to-date, though future performance depends on the duration of energy price pressures

The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, rose 0.4% in January, pushing the 12-month inflation rate up to 3.1% from 3.0%, slightly hotter than economists' expectations. This data reinforces expectations for an extended Fed rate-cut pause, with market odds now showing less than 1% chance of a cut at the upcoming Fed meeting. S&P 500 futures rose modestly despite the inflation news, aided by a drop in oil prices after the U.S. relaxed Russian oil sanctions.

• Core PCE inflation climbed to 3.1% year-over-year, exceeding the forecast of steady 3.0%, while the monthly increase of 0.4% (0.363% unrounded) matched expectations
• Market-implied odds of a Fed rate cut have collapsed to less than 1% for the March meeting and just 28% through June, with a coin-flip probability not reached until September
• Fourth-quarter GDP was sharply revised downward to 0.7% annualized growth from 1.4%, reflecting weaker exports, consumer spending, and government expenditures

U.S. stock futures pointed to gains on March 13, 2026, led by the Dow Jones rising 0.3%, as oil prices retreated below $100 per barrel amid developments in the ongoing Middle East conflict. Brent crude fell approximately 2% to below $99 after India reported an oil tanker exiting the Strait of Hormuz, easing concerns about supply disruptions.

• Brent crude dropped below $99 per barrel and WTI futures fell 2.2% to $93.64 after briefly trading above $100 for the first time since August 2022
• Futures indicated gains of 0.3% for the Dow Jones with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq tracking close behind as markets traded on headlines from the two-week-old Middle East conflict
• European markets reversed morning losses with London's FTSE 100 up 0.2% while Asian markets closed lower, with Seoul's Kospi down 1.7% and Tokyo's Nikkei falling 1.2%

Oil prices surged above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 after Iran's supreme leader threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, sending stocks tumbling with the Dow falling over 700 points below 47,000. The escalating conflict has reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts from three to possibly just one in 2026, while investors await January's PCE inflation data.

• Brent crude climbed 9.22% to close above $100 per barrel; U.S. plans naval escorts for tankers through the Strait of Hormuz 'as soon as militarily possible', potentially with an international coalition
• Fed rate cut expectations slashed from two to three cuts this year down to only one expected in December, as energy price surge raises inflation concerns ahead of Friday's PCE data release
• Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen announced he will step down once a successor is named, while Adobe shares fell over 7% in premarket trading despite beating Q1 earnings expectations with 12% revenue growth

US stock futures edged slightly higher on Friday as investors awaited key PCE inflation and GDP data, but major indexes remained on track for weekly losses. Oil prices near $100 due to Middle East tensions are raising inflation concerns, while stress in the private credit market intensified with Morgan Stanley halting fund redemptions.

• S&P 500 headed for 1% weekly decline, Dow down 1.7%, despite modest Friday futures gains of about 0.3%
• PCE inflation expected to show 2.9% headline and 3.1% core year-over-year increases; oil near $100/barrel as Middle East conflict persists despite US intervention efforts
• Private credit market stress growing with Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, and Blue Owl halting redemptions; traders now expect only one Fed rate cut in 2026 versus two before conflict

London's FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indexes fell on Friday, heading for a second consecutive weekly loss, as the Middle East conflict drove oil prices above $100 per barrel and raised inflation concerns. The escalating situation has prompted markets to abandon expectations for a March rate cut from the Bank of England, with major banks now delaying their easing forecasts. UK economic data showing flat GDP growth in January has compounded investor worries about the outlook.

• Oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel due to Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, boosting energy stocks like BP and Shell but raising inflation fears that could keep UK interest rates elevated
• Money markets erased March rate cut expectations, with BofA, Goldman Sachs, Standard Chartered, and Morgan Stanley all pushing back their BoE easing forecasts to June or later
• HSBC and Standard Chartered shares fell 1% each due to their significant Gulf region exposure, while UK GDP stalled in January with weak services performance

U.S. markets posted their worst day since the Iran war began as oil prices surged past $100 per barrel amid concerns about a shuttered Strait of Hormuz and escalating Middle East conflict. Despite historic volatility in energy markets, including a record $35 intraday swing in Brent crude and the largest-ever IEA reserve release of 400 million barrels, oil remains elevated with warnings it could reach $200.

• Brent crude experienced record volatility with a $35 intraday move, approaching $120 before falling below $90, then settling back above $100 despite the IEA's unprecedented 400-million-barrel emergency reserve release
• U.S. average gasoline prices are rising sharply as of Wednesday, with Asia facing the greatest risk due to heavy reliance on Middle East energy imports, particularly refined fuel products
• Major central banks including the Fed, ECB, and Bank of England meet next week to address what is shaping up to be the biggest crisis since the pandemic, with markets focused on how policymakers will respond to the oil shock

The United States issued a 30-day waiver allowing countries to purchase sanctioned Russian oil currently at sea, aimed at stabilizing global energy markets disrupted by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov acknowledged the move as an attempt to stabilize energy markets, stating that Russia and the U.S. share common interests in this regard.

• The waiver represents the second major rollback of Ukraine war-related U.S. sanctions in just over one week
• The move follows U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran that paralyzed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, roiling global energy markets
• Peskov stated that market stabilization is impossible without significant volumes of Russian oil, warning of risks that the global energy crisis could escalate

Investors await the Federal Reserve's policy meeting on March 13, 2026, as the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran complicates interest rate cut expectations. Oil prices have surged near $120 per barrel since airstrikes began two weeks ago, raising inflation concerns and causing the S&P 500 to drop over 4% from its January record high.

• Markets now price in only one quarter-point rate cut by December 2026, down from two cuts expected before the Iran war began in late February
• U.S. crude oil prices soared close to $120 per barrel this week, with Iran warning the world should prepare for $200 oil as it targets merchant ships
• The Fed is expected to hold rates steady while releasing updated economic projections; Chair Jerome Powell's press conference will be closely watched for guidance on how the conflict impacts policy outlook

Major brokerages including Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have revised their 2026 oil price forecasts as conflict in Iran nears the two-week mark, disrupting supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles over 20% of global oil flows. Brent and WTI futures hit their highest levels since June 2022 this week, rising more than 10% and 7% respectively. Iran's new Supreme Leader vowed Thursday to keep the Strait as leverage against the U.S. and Israel.

• Goldman Sachs forecasts 2026 Brent at $77/barrel and WTI at $72/barrel, while Bank of America predicts $78 and $73 respectively, with most analysts expecting stabilization later in the year
• Macquarie warns crude could surge to $150/barrel or above if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several weeks, while UBS sees potential for prices exceeding $100-$120/barrel under sustained disruption
• Analysts broadly anticipate elevated prices in the near term before stabilizing, with 2027 forecasts generally lower as pre-war supply surplus is expected to re-emerge

Digital wallets are reshaping payment competition as issuers face divergent regulatory environments across global markets. According to Thales executive Arjen Hollander, successful payment providers must balance global technology platforms with localized compliance strategies. Consumer expectations for seamless digital experiences are converging faster than the fragmented markets themselves.

• Wallet adoption (Apple Pay, Google Pay) accelerates all digital payment technologies, shifting customer loyalty from banks to wallet interfaces, particularly evident in markets like China where consumers 'stay loyal to the wallet' rather than the underlying card issuer
• Europe's PSD2 regulation and passporting rules demonstrate how regulation can drive innovation by enabling firms to operate across multiple markets under a single license, creating structural competitive advantages
• Security strategies must be regionally adaptive rather than uniform, with issuers implementing risk-based authentication models that balance protection with user experience—'the right amount of security' rather than maximum security at all times

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) surged approximately 13% on Thursday to 24.92, driven by Iranian tanker attacks that pushed oil prices toward $100 per barrel. The US-Israeli conflict with Iran has disrupted roughly 20% of global oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, creating stagflationary pressures that forced Goldman Sachs to delay Fed rate cut forecasts from June to September.

• Small-cap stocks (Russell 2000) fell 2.15% Thursday and are down 7% over the past month, while the Dow shed nearly 7% monthly due to industrial and energy-cost exposure as domestic companies lack pricing power to absorb oil-driven cost surges
• Oil prices surged from around $70 to over $110 per barrel following the conflict's start on February 28, 2026, with Iran threatening prices could reach $200 per barrel if escalation continues
• The VIX at 24.92 sits at the 88th percentile of its past year distribution; analysts warn a Strait of Hormuz closure could push the VIX toward 50, matching the April 2025 crisis level of 52.33

Chinese banks are significantly increasing lending to technology and innovation sectors in response to Beijing's push for AI adoption and tech dominance, while dramatically reducing real estate exposure. Outstanding loans to small- and medium-sized tech firms reached 3.63 trillion yuan ($528 billion) by end-2025, growing 19.8% year-over-year, while real estate loans fell 1.6%. This represents a major capital reallocation driven by policy mandates and the property sector crisis.

• One joint-stock bank in Jiangsu province targeted 30% growth in new loans to high-tech companies in 2026, up from 20% in 2025, with some banks creating fast-track approval mechanisms and considering lower interest rates for tech startups
• Tech loans now represent about 8% of total bank lending compared to 19% for real estate, but analysts warn of asset-quality risks due to startups' negative cash flows, higher failure rates, and intellectual property-based collateral that's difficult to assess
• The shift is driven by US-China tech tensions limiting global financing options for Chinese tech firms, forcing reliance on domestic bank funding to support national strategic goals in AI, semiconductors, and advanced manufacturing

The U.S. housing market faces a critical supply-demand imbalance as housing starts hit a one-year high while existing home inventory remains sluggish. New inflationary pressures from a 15% global tariff and surging energy prices due to the Iran war threaten consumer purchasing power and the anticipated 2026 housing recovery. The Federal Reserve is maintaining a 'higher for longer' stance, with markets now projecting the first rate cut delayed until October 2026.

• Existing home sales rose 1.7% month-over-month to 4.09 million units in February but remain down 1.4% year-over-year, while housing starts increased 7.2% to 1.49 million homes annually, driven by a 29.1% surge in multifamily construction.
• Gas prices jumped approximately 20% in less than two weeks to $3.58/gallon following the Iran conflict, acting as a 'stealth tax' that diverts consumer income away from housing down payments.
• Homebuilder Lennar reports Q1 2026 earnings amid concerns over rate buy-down strategies pressuring gross margins to 15-16%, while rising material costs from tariffs complicate building plans.

Iran's new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei vowed to continue blocking the Strait of Hormuz, a critical trade passageway through which 30% of the world's fertilizer and 20 million barrels of oil per day normally flow. The closure threatens global supply chains just before spring planting season, with oil prices surging about 8% to $100 per barrel for Brent crude, signaling a supply shock that experts say is harder to resolve than previous crises.

• The strait carries essential commodities including crude oil, natural gas, fertilizer, sugar, aluminum, plastics, and helium, making it an 'acute vulnerability' for global trade
• The International Energy Agency plans to release 400 million barrels from oil reserves, but this represents less than six months of supply given the 20 million barrels per day that previously flowed through the strait
• Fertilizer price increases of 20% would likely be passed through to consumers via higher food prices, as farmers need fertilizer to increase crop yields and reduce disease and pest losses

President Trump is demanding Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cut interest rates immediately rather than wait for the next policy meeting on March 17, as rising oil prices driven by Iran conflict complicate inflation efforts. The demand intensifies political pressure on the Fed, which typically operates independently and makes rate changes at scheduled meetings. Powell's term ends May 15, with Trump having already nominated a successor.

• Oil prices surged past $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022 due to U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, driving up gasoline and diesel prices and adding inflationary pressure
• The Fed's current benchmark rate stands at 3.50% to 3.75% after recent cuts, but Trump has called for rates as low as 1% to stimulate economic growth
• Federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation tied to Powell's congressional testimony about cost overruns on Fed headquarters renovations, which Powell called 'unprecedented' political pressure

US stock markets plunged on Thursday, with the Dow falling 739 points to 46,677.67, as ongoing US-Iran conflict and surging oil prices rattled investor sentiment. All major indices hit their lowest levels since November, with the S&P 500 down 1.52% and Nasdaq dropping 404 points, though energy stocks bucked the trend.

• Brent crude briefly topped $100 per barrel as Iran vowed to keep oil chokepoints closed, raising fears of the biggest supply shock since the 1970s
• Energy stocks gained despite broader selloff, with Chevron surging 2.7% and ExxonMobil up 1.3%, while tech giants like Nvidia and AMD declined
• Federal Reserve faces critical policy meeting next week with near-zero odds of a rate cut, as war-driven oil spikes threaten to reverse recent disinflation progress

Market expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have dramatically shifted due to rising energy prices and renewed inflation concerns stemming from Middle East conflict. Traders now anticipate only one rate cut in December 2026, down from previous expectations of multiple cuts starting in June, with no additional cuts priced in until 2027 or early 2028.

• Goldman Sachs pushed back its forecast for the next rate cut from June to September 2026, citing a 'higher inflation path' as oil prices surged above $100 per barrel following Iran conflict
• Core PCE inflation is expected to rise to 3.1% in January data, moving further from the Fed's 2% target and indicating inflation pressures existed before the recent Middle East strike
• The Fed's next policy decision on March 18 is nearly 100% certain to keep rates unchanged, despite President Trump calling for immediate rate cuts from outgoing Chair Jerome Powell

Oil prices have surged amid the U.S./Israel-Iran conflict, with U.S. crude reaching $100+ and gasoline prices rising from $2.83 to $3.60 per gallon. Potomac Fund Management argues that while this represents a modest stagflationary shock (potentially reducing GDP by 0.2-0.3% and raising inflation 0.4-0.6%), historical patterns suggest the oil price peak may already be behind us and recession fears are overstated.

• The gasoline price increase from year-start to current levels represents roughly a $104 billion annual hit to U.S. consumer purchasing power, based on the rule of thumb that every $0.10 increase costs consumers $13-14 billion.
• Since the U.S. became a net petroleum exporter in 2020, oil prices have historically peaked about 11 days after geopolitical shocks and normalized within two months with roughly 20% declines from peak levels.
• On an inflation-adjusted basis, current oil prices remain below levels seen in 2010-2014, 2018, and 2022, periods during which the U.S. economy avoided stagflation or recession despite elevated energy costs.