General Market News

Gold prices experienced significant volatility, falling for the fourth consecutive week amid stronger U.S. economic data, rising Fed rate-hike expectations, and a firmer dollar. Prices dropped from a weekly high of $4,220.82 to a low of $3,959.38 before recovering to close near $4,100. Both Wall Street analysts and retail investors remain predominantly bearish heading into next week, though some see current levels as a buying opportunity.

• Gold briefly fell below $4,000 during the week before recovering, with analysts divided on whether further downside to $3,700-$3,800 is likely before a sustained rebound begins
• May PCE inflation came in at 4.1% year-over-year with initial jobless claims falling to 215,000, reinforcing expectations the Fed has little room to ease policy despite falling oil prices
• In Kitco's survey, 44% of Wall Street analysts and 46% of retail investors expect gold to decline next week, with key focus on June Nonfarm Payrolls data due Thursday ahead of Independence Day

Luxury retailer Saks Global has emerged from Chapter 11 bankruptcy after nearly five months, rebranding as Exemplar Luxury Group (ELG) with reduced debt and a smaller store footprint. The company filed for bankruptcy in January 2026 with $3.4 billion in debt, struggling after its December 2024 merger with Neiman Marcus caused cash flow and vendor relationship problems.

• ELG reduced its debt by nearly 75% through the restructuring process and closed most off-price locations to focus on luxury retail
• The restructured company will be governed by a new board with representatives from Pentwater Capital Management and Bracebridge Capital
• The failed Neiman Marcus merger orchestrated by Richard Baker created inventory issues and strained relationships with key luxury vendors including Chanel, LVMH, and Kering

The United States has launched military strikes against Iran following accusations by President Trump that Tehran violated a ceasefire agreement in the Strait of Hormuz. This marks a significant escalation in tensions between the two nations in a critical global shipping corridor. The situation is still developing with updates expected.

• Trump accused Iran of violating a ceasefire in the strategically important Strait of Hormuz, through which a significant portion of global oil supplies pass
• U.S. military conducted strikes against Iranian targets in response to the alleged ceasefire breach
• The incident represents a major escalation in U.S.-Iran relations with potential implications for global energy markets and regional stability

US stock indexes closed lower on Friday as investors rotated out of technology and semiconductor stocks into defensive sectors like healthcare, consumer staples, and utilities. The S&P 500 fell 0.27%, the Nasdaq dropped 0.48%, and the Dow declined 0.23%, driven by concerns about AI infrastructure spending returns and inflation climbing above 4% in May. The shift reflects growing uncertainty about tech valuations and AI-related investments amid rising rate hike expectations.

• Semiconductor stocks extended losses with Micron down 4%, AMD falling 2%, and the PHLX Semiconductor Index tumbling as investors questioned AI infrastructure investment returns
• Healthcare and defensive sectors outperformed, with Eli Lilly surging 7% to its highest level since 2024 and consumer staples advancing more than 1%
• US inflation rose above 4% in May while the Fed's Kashkari expects one rate increase this year, with traders pricing in a 27% probability of a second hike before year-end

The European Commission defended the EU's digital tax policies on June 26 in response to criticism from U.S. President Donald Trump. The EU asserted its sovereign right to regulate economic activity and emphasized that its digital taxes are non-discriminatory, applying equally to all large companies regardless of origin. The bloc warned it would respond swiftly to unjustified U.S. measures while remaining open to a global solution.

• EU spokesperson stated that digital taxes are 'non-discriminatory by design' and apply equally to all large companies, regardless of their country of origin
• The European Commission warned it would respond swiftly to any unjustified unilateral measures from the U.S.
• Despite tensions, the EU indicated openness to a global solution aligned with G7 agreements on international taxation

Oil prices plunged 3.5% on June 26, 2026, as markets dismissed geopolitical concerns following Iran's drone attack on a vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude fell below $69 and Brent tested $72 support levels as traders bet the incident won't disrupt shipping or escalate Middle East tensions, with U.S.-Iran talks scheduled for June 28-29.

• Iran fired four drones at ships in Hormuz Strait, with one hitting a vessel that allegedly used an unauthorized route, but the U.S. has not responded beyond Trump's social media comments
• WTI oil broke below $70.50-$71.50 support and is targeting $66.50-$67.00, while Brent oil tested $72.00-$72.50 support with potential downside to $67.00-$67.50
• Natural gas continues attempting to break above $3.25-$3.30 resistance as traders roll contracts from July to August 2026

Iraq's Oil Ministry announced that OPEC has begun gradually restoring Iraq's pre-war production allocations and confirmed it is not planning to leave the organization. The statement came after reports suggested Iraq was considering exiting OPEC if not allowed to significantly increase oil production, following the UAE's departure two months earlier. Iraq's oil exports have been severely disrupted by the Iran war blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

• Iraq is OPEC's second-largest producer with a July quota of 4.378 million barrels per day, though current output is significantly below this due to Strait of Hormuz disruptions
• Iraq seeks a reassessment of OPEC production quotas to better reflect its economic and security circumstances after war-related export disruptions
• The potential exit would have dealt a serious blow to OPEC, which recently lost the United Arab Emirates as a member less than two months ago

U.S. stock markets ended the week with mixed performance as technology sector volatility dragged down the Nasdaq toward its worst weekly decline since June 5, 2026. The tech selloff persisted despite positive earnings from Micron, while the Dow Jones was the only major index headed for a weekly gain. Market concerns intensified after reports of potential IPO delays due to rising AI infrastructure costs.

• The Nasdaq is on track for its worst weekly performance in three weeks, pulled down by sustained tech sector selling pressure that overshadowed upbeat earnings reports
• Wendy's (WEN) emerged as a meme stock favorite as retail traders rotated away from high-beta chip stocks into alternative sectors like Caterpillar (CAT)
• Notable tech developments included IBM and Arm Holdings receiving partnership benefits, while Qualcomm faced sector rotation headwinds and Western Digital gained from Micron's positive report

New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh held his first FOMC meeting, keeping rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% but adopting a more hawkish stance with nine members now projecting at least one rate hike by year-end 2026, up from zero in March. Warsh declared 'inflation is a choice' and committed to meeting the Fed's 2% inflation target after the PCE index has exceeded that level for five years. Markets responded by selling off stocks and bonds while pricing in a 38% probability of a July rate hike.

• The updated Fed Dot Plot showed nine of 18 FOMC members now project at least one rate hike by year-end 2026, a sharp reversal from the two rate cuts markets had priced in at the start of the year
• Fed Chair Warsh emphasized that 'inflation is a choice' and acknowledged the Fed's failure to meet its price stability mandate, with PCE inflation running above the 2% target for five consecutive years
• Global equity markets posted strong gains on potential U.S.-Iran peace deal news, with emerging markets up nearly 8% for the week, though oil remains 33% above pre-conflict levels at $77 per barrel

New Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh signaled a hawkish shift in monetary policy at his first press conference, prioritizing inflation control and promising 'fresh thinking' at the central bank. Although rates were held steady, markets anticipate rate hikes this year, driving the 2-year Treasury yield up 17 basis points to 4.22%, its highest level since February 2025.

• The 2-year Treasury yield jumped approximately 17 basis points to 4.22% following Warsh's hawkish comments, while the 30-year Treasury yield remained flat, suggesting markets view inflation as a near-term challenge unlikely to persist long-term
• Warsh announced five new task forces to examine Fed communication policy, balance sheet policy, data usage, productivity and jobs, and the inflation framework as part of his reform agenda
• The flattening yield curve suggests investors believe the Fed's credible inflation-fighting stance may increase recession probability, though rate hikes may be delayed if upcoming inflation data remains tame

Nicholas Rossi, a US rapist who faked his death in 2020 and fled to Scotland to avoid charges, has died in a Utah hospital at age 38. Rossi was serving a sentence of 10 years to life for raping two women in Utah in 2008. He died from complications of an existing medical condition after discontinuing treatment.

• Rossi faked his death in February 2020 through an online obituary claiming he died of non-Hodgkin lymphoma, shortly after being charged with rape
• He was arrested in Scotland in 2021 after hospital staff treating him for COVID recognized his distinctive tattoos, including a university crest he never attended
• After a lengthy extradition battle, Rossi was convicted in August following a trial and had used at least a dozen aliases to evade capture over the years

Switzerland's pharmaceutical industry faces potential U.S. trade investigation under Section 301, similar to the probe launched against Germany last week. The risk stems from Switzerland's proposed healthcare reforms aimed at reducing mandatory drug prices, which U.S. lawmakers argue unfairly shifts pharmaceutical innovation costs to American consumers.

• The U.S. initiated a Section 301 investigation against Germany after it announced plans in April to overhaul its healthcare system and lower pharmaceutical spending
• Republican congressmen sent a letter urging investigations into Switzerland and Germany, accusing them of 'free-riding' off U.S. pharmaceutical innovation through pricing controls
• Pharmaceutical and chemical products comprised over half of Switzerland's exports last year, with major drugmakers Roche and Novartis headquartered there

President Donald Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on goods from any country that implements a digital services tax on American companies. Trump stated via Truth Social that this tariff would override existing trade deals, whether implemented, signed, or pending.

• The proposed 100% tariff would apply to all goods from countries imposing digital services taxes on U.S. firms
• Trump declared the tariff would supersede all trade agreements with affected countries regardless of their status
• The threat targets foreign governments that tax American tech and digital companies operating in their jurisdictions

U.S. President Donald Trump threatened on Friday to impose a 100% tariff on all goods from any country that implements a digital services tax on American companies. Trump announced via social media that these tariffs would override existing trade agreements with the United States. The move represents an aggressive stance against foreign taxation of U.S. tech firms.

• The threatened 100% tariff would apply to all goods from countries imposing digital services taxes on U.S. companies
• Trump stated the new tariff policy would supersede any existing trade deals with the United States
• The announcement was made through a social media post on June 26, 2026

Economist Steve Moore predicts inflation will soon become 'yesterday's story,' citing a sharp drop in the five-year break-even inflation rate from over 3.5% to 1.92% in recent weeks. This market-based measure suggests bond investors already expect inflation to return near the Fed's 2% target, despite headline PCE currently sitting at 4.07% due to a 24% spike in energy prices. Moore believes the Fed will not raise rates as the energy shock fades and underlying inflation remains controlled.

• The five-year break-even inflation rate collapsed from 3.5% to 1.92% as of June 25, 2026, signaling the bond market expects inflation to average around 2% over the next five years
• Headline PCE inflation reached 4.07% year-over-year in May, driven almost entirely by a 24.26% surge in energy costs, while core PCE sits at 3.41% and food inflation has slowed to 2.38%
• The two-year Treasury yield at 4.09% suggests markets still expect the Fed to maintain patience on rate policy, though Moore predicts no rate hikes if energy moderates and inflation converges toward break-even levels

Russia's central bank stated no additional measures are needed to stabilize the banking system despite a 17.5% year-on-year surge in cash withdrawals. Russians have been pulling cash amid fears that intermittent internet shutdowns, imposed to disrupt Ukrainian drones, could disable payment systems. The liquidity deficit reached 2 trillion roubles in June, though the central bank insists it is providing adequate support to banks.

• Cash held outside banks rose 17.5% year-on-year to over 19 trillion roubles ($243 billion), driven by internet shutdowns and tax increases encouraging businesses to use cash to avoid taxes
• The banking system's liquidity deficit reached 2 trillion roubles in June and could grow to 3.6 trillion roubles by year-end, putting pressure on banks that rely on deposits for funding
• The surge in cash demand is reversing years of digital payment development, with demand at recent central bank repo auctions exceeding supply by more than one-third

President Trump accused Iran of violating a ceasefire agreement through attacks on a cargo ship and drone strikes. The announcement was made during a White House event with American farmers on June 25, 2026. This represents a breaking development in U.S.-Iran relations.

• Trump made the accusation during a dinner with American farmers at the White House Rose Garden
• The alleged violations involve both a cargo ship strike and separate drone attacks by Iran
• The situation is developing and marks a potential escalation in tensions between the U.S. and Iran

Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari announced Thursday that he has revised his monetary policy outlook and now anticipates one interest rate increase will be needed this year. This represents a change from his previous position on rate policy.

• Kashkari shifted his stance to expect one rate hike in the current year
• The announcement was made Thursday and represents a notable change in his monetary policy outlook
• This is breaking news with limited details currently available

ASE Technology Holding is benefiting from surging AI infrastructure demand, with its assembly, testing, and advanced packaging businesses showing strong growth. The company reported record first-quarter ATM revenues of NT$112.4 billion, up 30% year-over-year, driven by AI accelerator and high-bandwidth memory demand. ASE has increased its 2026 capital expenditure plans and raised LEAP revenue guidance to over $3.5 billion.

• ATM business revenues hit a record NT$112.4 billion in Q1 2026, rising 30% year-over-year due to higher factory utilization and advanced packaging product mix
• Company raised 2026 capex and increased LEAP revenue forecast to exceed $3.5 billion, approximately 10% above prior guidance, with stronger growth expected in 2027
• Stock has surged 159.9% year-to-date and trades at a forward P/E of 42.28, above industry average, with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) rating

Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of GMO ($85 billion AUM), warned that U.S. stocks could plunge 70% peak-to-trough, calling this the most expensive market in American history. He claims the market's P/E ratio has averaged over 60% higher from 2010 to today compared to the prior 100 years, and all 26 prior bubbles reaching his 'two-sigma' threshold have reversed to trend without exception.

• Grantham's timing window for the potential decline is extremely wide, ranging from roughly 2 weeks to 2 years, making it uncertain when any correction might occur
• The comparison to the 2000 dot-com bubble is central to his thesis; he previously called a 70-75% decline and the Nasdaq ultimately fell 82%
• Despite the bearish market call, Grantham acknowledges AI is genuinely transformative but argues universal recognition has produced dangerous overinvestment, similar to railroads and the internet which were revolutionary yet destroyed early investors