General Market News

Weekly mortgage application volume rose 3.2% despite volatile interest rates driven by Middle East turmoil, with homebuyer demand increasing 7.8% as the spring market begins. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.19% from 6.09%, while refinance demand remained essentially flat. Purchase applications were 11% higher year-over-year, driven partly by FHA loans as buyers navigate limited inventory and high prices.

• The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate increased to 6.19% from 6.09% week-over-week due to market volatility from ongoing Middle East conflict
• Purchase applications rose 7.8% for the week and were 11% higher than the same week last year, with FHA loan applications up more than 11%
• Housing inventory remains constrained at 3.8 months of supply compared to the 6-month level considered a balanced market, prompting buyers to seek lower down payment and adjustable-rate loans

Dow Jones futures fell 6.12% to $47,600 on March 11, 2026, as investors awaited February US CPI data amid ongoing US-Iran conflict. The war has driven oil prices to $90+ and gasoline to $3.50, raising inflation concerns and pushing US bond yields higher, with the 10-year reaching 4.17%.

• Economists expect February CPI to show headline inflation at 2.4% and core inflation at 2.5%, both remaining above the Fed's 2% target due to surging energy costs from the US-Iran war
• Crude oil prices jumped to $92 (Brent) and $88 (WTI) despite IEA proposals to release emergency reserves, while gasoline prices hit $3.50, the highest since 2024, rising for 11 consecutive days
• Oracle reported strong AI-driven results with revenue of $17.18 billion (up 22% YoY), providing a positive signal for the tech sector ahead of key earnings from Dollar General, Ulta Beauty, and Lennar

ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that financial market volatility can amplify economic shocks, complicating policy decisions ahead of the ECB's March 19 meeting. Oil prices have surged nearly 50% this year due to war in Iran, creating inflationary pressures while also posing downside risks to economic growth. The ECB will examine multiple scenarios as it did during Russia's Ukraine invasion four years ago.

• Oil prices are up nearly 50% year-to-date due to fallout from the Iran war, likely pushing inflation higher and increasing pressure on the ECB to raise rates
• Financial markets expect the ECB to raise interest rates by autumn, given concerns about oil-driven inflation and the bank's painful experience with delayed rate hikes in 2021/22
• De Guindos acknowledged high uncertainty and warned that energy price shocks create both inflationary pressures and downside risks to economic growth, requiring policymakers to consider various scenarios

The European Central Bank will respond quickly and decisively if rising fuel prices from the Iran conflict lead to sustained inflation in the euro zone, according to ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel. Markets briefly priced in two ECB rate hikes before scaling back expectations, while the central bank is modeling scenarios for the conflict's impact. Nagel supports a wait-and-see approach for now but warns the risk of higher inflation has increased.

• Money markets now assign slightly over 50% probability of a rate hike to 2% by year-end, up from current levels
• Nagel states that recent discussions about inflation undershooting the ECB's 2% target are 'likely to be over for the time being' due to energy price jumps
• The ECB is developing contingency scenarios as the Iran war creates upside inflation risks, though Nagel says it's too early to assess long-term consequences given the volatile situation

Surging diesel prices driven by the Israel-U.S. war with Iran threaten to slow global economic activity as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz constrain supply of the industrial fuel. The conflict has caused diesel supply losses of 3-4 million barrels per day, with prices potentially doubling at retail level if shipping disruptions persist. Higher diesel costs are expected to increase transportation expenses and trigger cost-push inflation across food and consumer goods.

• Strait of Hormuz disruptions cutting 3-4 million bpd of diesel supply (5-12% of global consumption), plus 500,000 bpd from blocked Middle East refinery exports
• U.S. diesel futures gained over $28/barrel from Feb 27 to Mar 10, outpacing crude oil's $16/barrel rise; European diesel prices jumped 55% in same period to $1,165/metric ton
• Diesel margins reached $33-65/barrel above crude (versus historical $20-25/barrel), threatening stagflationary impact through higher transport costs, food prices, and potential demand destruction

Oil prices briefly spiked above $100 per barrel on Monday amid the Iran war, with Brent crude reaching $115 before falling sharply by 8-9% on Tuesday. Initial panic over supply disruptions eased as G7 and IEA leaders discussed strategic reserve releases and Saudi Arabia ramped up production capacity. The market reassessed risks after U.S. military successes and signals the conflict may be shorter than feared.

• Oil jumped from a pre-conflict range of $60-70 per barrel to over $115 on Monday (highest since Russia's 2022 Ukraine invasion), but prices dropped 8-9% by Tuesday afternoon as supply concerns diminished
• G7 and IEA concluded they are not immediately releasing strategic reserves but remain prepared to take 'necessary measures' if needed; Saudi Arabia increased capacity to 7 million barrels per day and is expected to operate at full capacity within days
• EIA projects higher prices will prompt increased U.S. crude production in 2027-2028; analysts note eliminating Iran's longstanding threat to close the Strait of Hormuz could remove the 'Iranian risk premium' embedded in oil prices since the Carter administration

Oil prices plunged from weekend highs above $115 to around $84-88 per barrel following President Trump's comments suggesting the U.S.-Iran conflict may be nearing completion and G7 ministers signaling readiness to release strategic reserves. The sharp reversal triggered a major stock market rally, with the S&P 500 rebounding from a 1.5% intraday loss to finish up 0.8%, as investors bet on de-escalation easing inflation concerns.

• G7 is preparing a potential 400-million-barrel strategic reserve release (33% of total stockpile and largest coordinated release ever) to stabilize oil markets
• Sustained oil prices above $100 could push inflation to 4-5% and force the Fed to raise rates rather than cut, potentially popping multiple market 'bubbles' including AI spending, housing, and private equity
• Market odds of a July Fed rate cut dropped from 85% a month ago to 59% currently, reflecting renewed inflation fears; investors are betting oil will stabilize in the $80-90 range to keep the bull market intact

Senator Thom Tillis is maintaining his opposition to blocking the confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve chair. The article appears to be breaking news regarding the contentious nomination process, though full details are not available in the provided content.

• Tillis refuses to change his stance on the Kevin Warsh Fed chair confirmation
• This is classified as breaking news, suggesting an ongoing and developing political situation
• The confirmation process involves Trump's Fed chair pick, indicating potential partisan divisions

Financial advisers are urging investors to avoid extreme reactions as Middle East conflict creates volatile market conditions, with commodities and stocks whipsawing on conflicting war developments. Market strategists recommend patience and diversification rather than attempting to time moves based on rapidly changing headlines about U.S.-Iran hostilities.

• Oil prices have swung dramatically, with West Texas crude moving from $115 to $85 per barrel, while gold and stocks also experienced whipsaw action on conflicting war signals
• UBS advises investors to plan portfolios around a six-month elevated conflict scenario and space out portfolio adjustments gradually rather than making extreme moves
• Goldman Sachs' Iran expert warned that Iran's leadership vacuum means a 'decentralized war machine' is operating on 'autopilot' with no clear authority to guarantee cessation of hostilities

Kevin Warsh, set to become Federal Reserve chair in May, faces a challenging economic environment combining weak labor markets with persistent inflation driven by the Iraq war's impact on energy prices. The situation creates a 'perfect storm' requiring tough choices between the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and full employment. Trump expects rate cuts, but stagflationary pressures may limit policy options.

• Oil prices briefly surged over $100 per barrel due to the Iraq war, with fertilizer costs jumping 15%, threatening to push headline inflation above 3% while the labor market weakens
• Manufacturing costs are rising with an ISM price gauge at elevated levels, partly driven by Trump's tariffs, creating stagflationary pressures particularly in goods sectors
• Consumer spending shows widening inequality, with top earners' spending up 4.2% annually versus just 0.6% for lower earners - the widest gap since 2015 - complicating Fed policy decisions

Emerging market stocks delivered strong returns of 30.6% in 2025 and continue to perform well in 2026, driven by AI-related technology demand, a weaker U.S. dollar, and robust global trade. Financial analysts recommend emerging markets as a meaningful portfolio diversifier, particularly for investors heavily weighted toward U.S. stocks, citing distinct return drivers and attractive valuations despite recent gains.

• The MSCI Emerging Markets Index posted a 30.6% return in 2025 and continues strong performance in 2026, supported by AI semiconductor demand from Taiwan and South Korea, along with a weaker dollar easing debt burdens
• Emerging markets offer diversified tech exposure through AI semiconductor supply chain companies, which differs from U.S. platform/software concentration, providing distinct portfolio diversification
• Despite recent gains, emerging markets trade at a forward P/E ratio of 13.1 versus 21.3 for the S&P 500, offering attractive valuations that could serve as a portfolio ballast during downturns

Global equity markets showed divergent performance in January 2026, with emerging markets surging 8.85% while U.S. growth stocks fell 1.51%, driven largely by Microsoft's 11% decline on capital expenditure concerns. Commodities jumped over 10% as precious metals hit new highs before a sharp late-month selloff, while bonds posted minimal gains as rising rates led markets to push back expected Fed rate cut timing from March to June.

• Performance broadened within U.S. equities: small caps gained 5.35% and value stocks rose 4.56%, marking small caps' best month since August 2025, while Microsoft alone drove most of the Russell 1000 Growth decline
• Commodity volatility was extreme: despite a 25% single-day drop in silver and 9% drop in gold on January 30th, both precious metals still finished with near double-digit gains; crude oil rose 14% and natural gas surged nearly 40% on geopolitical tensions and cold weather
• Fixed income markets repriced Fed expectations significantly as futures now indicate the first 2026 rate cut in June versus earlier investor expectations of a March cut at 50%+ probability and April cut at nearly 80% probability

SpaceX is expected to announce an IPO potentially as early as Q2 2026, which could become the largest IPO in history with an estimated valuation around $1.5 trillion. The company plans to raise approximately $50 billion and may structure the offering to give Tesla shareholders preferential access, possibly through a SPAC merger with Pershing Square SPARC Holdings.

• SpaceX dominates 70% to 80% of the commercial space market, which is valued at over $500 billion with a projected 12% CAGR through at least 2031, doubling the market by early next decade
• Starlink has over 10 million active subscribers and generates steady cash flow to fund capital-intensive projects like Starship, the largest fully reusable rocket ever built capable of carrying 150 metric tons or 250-330 Blackwell GPUs
• SpaceX acquired xAI in early 2026 to develop AI capabilities and space-based data centers using Starlink infrastructure, with Elon Musk proposing a deal structure that rewards Tesla shareholders with preferential IPO access

US large-cap equities declined in February 2024 amid AI capex concerns and geopolitical tensions, with the Nasdaq 100 falling 2.3% and S&P 500 down 0.8%, though market leadership broadened as equal-weight and international stocks outperformed. The Fed is expected to hold rates steady in March following stronger-than-expected jobs data and elevated inflation readings. Historical analysis suggests equities typically recover quickly after geopolitical events, with the S&P 500 posting positive returns 67% of the time three months after major tensions since 1940.

• Market leadership broadened beyond mega-caps as S&P 500 Equal Weight (+3.6%), international developed equities (+6.2%), and US mid-caps (+4.1%) outperformed their cap-weighted counterparts, while gold rose 8.7% and silver gained 12.7%
• Core PPI rose 0.8% month-over-month in January (versus 0.3% expected), marking the highest monthly increase since March 2022, reinforcing Fed caution with markets pricing 94% probability of rates holding steady in March
• Magnificent 7 tech companies plan to increase AI infrastructure spending by roughly 58% in 2026 to over $700 billion, though return on investment remains uncertain and higher capex is pressuring free cash flow
• Private credit sector faced stress as Blue Owl Capital sold $1.4 billion in assets and ended quarterly redemptions in its retail fund, highlighting liquidity mismatches between long-term illiquid loans and investor withdrawal expectations

Rising gasoline prices and stock market volatility stemming from the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran are threatening consumer spending across income levels, potentially undermining expected U.S. economic growth in 2026. Gas prices have jumped 17% to over $3.50 per gallon nationally, while oil prices have fluctuated wildly between $90-$116 per barrel. The Federal Reserve faces a difficult balancing act between inflation concerns and potential recession risks as the conflict persists.

• National average gas prices rose 17% to $3.50/gallon, with analysts warning $4/gallon is possible if the conflict continues and Strait of Hormuz shipping disruptions persist
• Lower-income households may cut spending in other categories due to higher fuel costs, while wealthy consumers face uncertainty from volatile stock markets that have fallen from recent highs
• Fed policymakers confront dual risks: potential job market weakness (after unexpected February job losses) combined with broader inflation pressures if oil prices remain in the $85-$100 range for several months

Following US and Israeli strikes on Iran and Iranian retaliation attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz, RiverFront Investment Group analyzes three scenarios for investors: a quick ceasefire, muddle-through conflict, or wider war. The firm remains constructive on US equities due to North America's energy independence but has activated risk management alerts for lower-risk portfolios, with key S&P 500 support levels at 6,616 and 6,490.

• Historical data shows acute geopolitical crises have typically been buying opportunities, with stocks rising over 3, 6, and 12 months following 9 major events from the Cuban Missile Crisis to Iraq 2003
• Three scenarios outlined: 'Quick Ceasefire' (oil $55-70, favoring international stocks), 'Muddle Through' (oil $70-85, S&P 500 range 6,500-7,000), or 'Wider War' (oil $85-125+, favoring cash and commodities)
• Key risk triggers that would shift the firm more cautious include an Arab state attacking Iran, coordinated Iran-linked attacks on Western soil, or Russian/Chinese military intervention supporting Iran

Deutsche Bank upgraded the U.S. and European technology sector to 'neutral' from 'underweight' and turned 'overweight' on software, signaling that the six-month selloff driven by AI disruption fears has likely ended. The bank cited resilient earnings and expectations that no major company anticipates negative AI revenue impact through 2026, with software valuations now at historically thin premiums.

• The upgrade follows a sharp global software selloff over the past six months that left valuations at historically low premiums to the broader market
• Deutsche Bank notes earnings have proven resilient and no major company expects negative revenue impact from AI through 2026
• The bank also highlighted opportunities in German cyclical sectors like industrials and construction materials, supported by Berlin's fiscal stimulus despite recent declines

Global equity markets are attempting to recover on Tuesday, March 10, 2026, after significant recent declines attributed to war-related headlines and diminished risk appetite. Key European indices (Germany's DAX, Spain's IBEX) and Canada's TSX are showing tentative upward movement with technical analysts identifying crucial support and resistance levels for each market.

• Germany's DAX is testing its 200-day EMA around 24,100, with a breakout potentially targeting 25,000, while support holds at 23,000
• Spain's IBEX is stabilizing above 17,000 with the 200-day EMA providing support; a move above the 50-day EMA could push the index toward 18,250
• Canada's TSX remains the strongest performer, supported by financial and commodity sectors, with a break above 33,500 potentially targeting 35,000

Argentine President Javier Milei is pitching his country's economic turnaround to Wall Street investors during 'Argentina Week' in New York, despite challenging global conditions including rising oil prices and Middle East conflict that are rattling emerging markets. The roadshow aims to convince financiers that Argentina's fiscal reforms and U.S.-backed stabilization efforts remain attractive investment opportunities.

• Argentina secured a major legislative win with labor reform approval by Congress, part of broader spending cuts and deregulation efforts to restore stability after years of deficits and currency crises
• U.S. backing has become central to the pitch, including a February reciprocal trade agreement and liquidity facility that helped prevent a peso run before October 2025 midterm elections
• Global headwinds complicate the message: oil prices up nearly 30% this month to $90/barrel due to U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran, while a strengthening dollar (up 4% since late January) is drawing investors away from emerging markets

U.S. existing home sales rose 1.7% month-over-month in February to 4.09 million units annually, but remained 1.4% below year-ago levels. The housing market faces continued challenges from sluggish inventory growth, with only a 3.8-month supply available despite mortgage rates being lower than the previous year. Home prices remained relatively flat with a median of $398,000, up just 0.3% year-over-year.

• Housing inventory increased modestly to 1.29 million units (up 4.9% year-over-year), but supply growth is 'sluggish' compared to a 6-month supply needed for market balance
• Wage growth is now outpacing home price growth by almost 4 percentage points, and there are 6 million more jobs than in 2019, yet annual home sales are down by 1 million units
• Sales were strongest in the $1 million-plus category while lower-priced homes saw sharp declines; first-time buyers represented 34% of sales, up from 31% a year ago