General Market News

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady as expected, with Chair Jerome Powell describing the economy as on 'solid ground' during his press conference. Meta exceeded earnings expectations despite Reality Labs losses widening to $6.02 billion, while Microsoft tumbled 7% on cooling cloud growth. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent denied U.S. dollar intervention plans after the dollar index hit multiyear lows.

• Two Fed governors (Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller) dissented and pushed for a quarter-point rate cut, while Powell avoided commenting on the ongoing criminal probe into his congressional testimony
• Tesla posted mixed Q4 results and announced it will discontinue Model S and X production to focus on Optimus humanoid robots, while planning to invest around $2 billion in Musk's xAI startup
• The U.S. dollar index has fallen over 10% in the past 12 months, prompting Treasury Secretary Bessent to clarify that the U.S. would 'absolutely not' intervene in currency markets despite recent volatility

Ukraine's central bank reduced its key interest rate from 15.5% to 15% on January 29, citing slowing inflation (8% year-on-year in December) and greater certainty over international financial aid. This marks the beginning of an easing cycle after rates remained steady throughout most of 2025, though energy sector damage from Russian attacks continues to constrain economic prospects.

• The rate cut aims to support lending growth, which has expanded over 30% year-on-year, helping the economy adapt to wartime challenges
• Ukraine's GDP is projected to grow just 1.8% in 2026, matching 2025's pace, with the energy deficit from Russian bombardments restraining business activity
• Foreign reserves reached a record $57.3 billion and are expected to hit $65 billion by year-end, supported by 90 billion euros in EU aid planned over 2026-2027 and potential $8.1 billion IMF program

Global markets are holding steady as investors digest mixed megacap tech earnings, a Federal Reserve rate hold, and escalating U.S.-Iran tensions. Meta shares surged 10% on strong earnings and massive AI spending plans, while Microsoft disappointed on cloud results. Oil prices jumped and gold neared record highs as President Trump threatened Iran with strikes over its nuclear program.

• Meta stock rose 10% after announcing a 73% capital spending increase to $135 billion in 2026, while Microsoft fell on disappointing cloud computing results, highlighting divergent investor reactions to AI spending
• The Federal Reserve held rates unchanged with Chair Jerome Powell indicating no rate cuts until mid-year and sidestepping questions about his future and the Trump administration's criminal probe
• Oil prices climbed and gold approached $5,600 per ounce as Trump threatened military strikes against Iran if no nuclear deal is reached, with Tehran vowing to retaliate 'like never before'

The Motley Fool podcast discusses how analyzing a company's workforce—its largest expense—can provide valuable investment insights. Dr. Ben Zweig, CEO of Revelio Labs, explains how employee data including hiring patterns, attrition rates, and job postings can reveal strategic shifts before they're publicly announced. The discussion also covers the changing composition of the S&P 500, Social Security's projected 2032 trust fund depletion, and inflation concerns for essential goods.

• Since 1985, 20% of S&P 500 constituents turn over every five years on average, with company lifespans in the index dropping from 29.3 years in the 1970s to 18.3 years in the 2020s
• Social Security's trust fund could be depleted by 2032 (earlier than expected), potentially triggering a 20-25% benefit cut without reforms combining higher taxes, later claiming ages, or benefit formula changes
• Four key workforce data points for investors: employee profiles (hiring/attrition patterns), job postings (forward-looking hiring plans), employee perception (insider sentiment), and salary benchmarks (bargaining power indicators)

Indonesia's stock market plunged as much as 16.7% over two days after MSCI warned of a possible downgrade from emerging market to frontier market status due to concerns about opaque free float data and foreign ownership limits. MSCI, whose indices track $10 trillion in stocks, has given Indonesia until May to show progress. Goldman Sachs estimates foreign outflows could reach $7.8 billion if the downgrade occurs.

• MSCI cited client concerns about unclear data on Indonesian companies' free float percentages and foreign ownership limits, threatening Indonesia's 1% weighting in its emerging markets index
• Indonesia has until May to demonstrate progress; authorities proposed measures including doubling the free float requirement for listed firms to 15%
• The Indonesian government previously penalized JPMorgan Chase in 2015 and 2017 for issuing negative ratings on its bonds and stocks

U.S. Treasury yields rose Thursday following the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% at its January meeting. The 10-year Treasury yield increased to 4.267% as investors assessed the Fed's pause after three rate cuts in late 2025, with the central bank navigating questions about its independence while awaiting new leadership.

• The 10-year Treasury yield rose over one basis point to 4.267%, while the 30-year yield increased about three basis points to 4.89%
• Governor Waller dissented by calling for a 25-basis-point cut, though analysts say dissenting votes do not threaten Fed independence as a stable majority remains insulated from political pressure
• Julius Baer expects a cumulative 50-basis-point rate cut in the first half of 2026 due to labor-market weakness, more than markets currently price in, and maintains a slight overweight stance on U.S. fixed income

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer met with Chinese President Xi Jinping for 80 minutes in Beijing on January 29, 2026, making progress on trade, travel, and migration issues. The leaders discussed reducing tariffs on whisky, implementing visa-free travel to China for Britons, and cooperation on irregular migration. Starmer aims to boost UK economic growth through expanded business access to China.

• Agreement reached on reducing whisky tariffs, with discussions covering specific reduction amounts and implementation timelines
• China agreed to visa-free travel for British citizens and information exchange on small boats used in irregular migration into Britain
• Starmer and Xi held a 'respectful' discussion about Jimmy Lai, the British citizen and former Hong Kong media tycoon convicted of national security crimes in December

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% as expected, but Chair Jerome Powell's comments on central bank independence and political pressures drew investor attention. Powell attended a court case involving Governor Lisa Cook and advised his successor to avoid political entanglement. Markets showed muted response with the S&P 500 briefly touching 7,000 before closing flat.

• Two Fed governors (Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller) dissented and voted for a quarter-point rate cut, though the majority held rates unchanged
• Powell emphasized the importance of Fed independence, attending what he called 'perhaps the most important case in the Fed's 113-year history' regarding whether President Trump can fire Governor Cook
• Safe haven assets including gold, silver, and the Swiss franc reached new highs amid market uncertainty, while U.K. Prime Minister Starmer's China visit signaled efforts to mend bilateral ties

US stock futures declined in Asian trading on January 29, 2026, following the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates at 3.75% and Fed Chair Powell's comments cooling expectations for near-term rate cuts. Despite the pullback, all three major index futures remained above key technical support levels, with markets now focusing on upcoming jobless claims data and earnings from major companies including Apple, Caterpillar, Mastercard, and Visa.

• Market expectations for a March 2026 Fed rate cut dropped from 17.3% to 13.5%, while June rate cut probability fell from 65.4% to 60.8% after Powell cited elevated inflation as an obstacle to further cuts despite two FOMC members dissenting.
• Microsoft's weaker-than-expected cloud growth results pressured tech futures, with the Dow Jones E-mini falling 98 points, while the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 E-minis declined 2 and 5 points respectively.
• Technical indicators remain bullish with all three major index futures holding above their 50-day and 200-day EMAs, though analysts warn that hawkish Bank of Japan policy or disappointing earnings could trigger an unwind of yen carry trades and derail the positive outlook.

Indonesian stocks plunged toward their largest two-day fall on record after index provider MSCI warned of a possible downgrade from emerging to frontier market status due to transparency concerns. The Jakarta Composite Index fell 8% Thursday following a 7.4% drop Wednesday, triggering trading halts. Goldman Sachs downgraded Indonesian equities to 'underweight' and estimated potential outflows of $2.2-7.8 billion if the downgrade occurs.

• MSCI froze updates to Indonesian entries citing 'investability risks' over lack of clarity on stock ownership, trading, and price formation, with any downgrade forcing billions in passive fund outflows
• Foreign investors have already sold $834 million worth of Indonesian stocks amid concerns over President Prabowo's fiscal policies, including appointing his nephew to the central bank and dismissing the finance minister
• Indonesia faces broader economic challenges including weak private consumption, slowing credit growth, and a fiscal deficit approaching the legal 3% of GDP limit

Software maker Anaplan is preparing to file confidentially for an IPO in the coming weeks, nearly four years after private equity firm Thoma Bravo took the company private in a $10.4 billion deal in 2022. The move signals Thoma Bravo's strategy to return portfolio companies to public markets, though specific fundraising targets and valuation have not been disclosed.

• Anaplan was originally taken public in 2018 before being acquired by Thoma Bravo in 2022 for $10.4 billion
• Thoma Bravo, which manages over $181 billion in assets, has explored IPOs for other portfolio companies including Ping Identity and Proofpoint in recent months
• The IPO filing amount and target valuation remain undisclosed, and plans could still change according to the report

The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% as expected, but attention centered on political pressures facing the independent central bank, including a legal case that could allow President Trump to fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla all beat earnings expectations, while oil prices rose after Trump announced a 'massive Armada is heading to Iran.' The S&P 500 briefly touched 7,000 for the first time before closing flat.

• Two Fed governors (Miran and Waller) dissented and voted for a quarter-point rate cut, while Chair Powell warned his successor to avoid getting 'pulled into elected politics'
• All three tech giants (Meta, Microsoft, Tesla) exceeded earnings and revenue estimates for Q4 2025, though only Meta and Tesla saw stock gains in extended trading
• Oil prices jumped on geopolitical tensions after Trump's Iran statement, while gold hit a record high above $5,500 in Asian trading

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that many American consumers are being forced to 'economize' and trade down to cheaper alternatives as persistent inflation strains household budgets. The Fed left interest rates unchanged in January after three consecutive rate cuts in late 2025. Powell stated that returning inflation to the Fed's 2% target is the best way to address affordability concerns, though PCE inflation rose to an estimated 2.9% in December.

• Retailers report consumers are trading down from brand names and buying less, with higher-income households that own real estate and stocks driving much of the economy while less-affluent households struggle
• The PCE inflation index reached an estimated 2.9% in December, up from a low of 2.2% in April, with the increase largely attributed to tariffs on imported goods boosting prices in the goods sector
• Powell expects tariff-related price increases to be one-time effects that will peak and decline over the course of the year, assuming no major new tariffs are imposed

Larry Kudlow argues that President Trump should appoint a transformational Federal Reserve chair, criticizing current Chairman Jay Powell for maintaining overly restrictive monetary policy despite declining inflation indicators. Kudlow praises Fed board members Stephen Miran and Chris Waller for dissenting in favor of rate cuts, citing evidence that the economy is experiencing a productivity-led, disinflationary boom.

• Core inflation metrics show significant cooling: 3-month core PCE at 2.3% annually, 3-month core CPI at 1.6%, and unit labor costs barely above 1% over the past year
• Kudlow contends the Fed's economic models are flawed, arguing that growth and low unemployment do not cause inflation, while Powell incorrectly obsessed over tariff inflation that has not materialized
• Full cost expensing is driving business capital investment and a productivity boom that is counter-inflationary, but the Fed refuses to acknowledge these supply-side dynamics

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell discussed his future at the central bank and offered advice to his successor during a January press conference after the Fed left interest rates unchanged. Powell's term as chair expires in May, though he could remain as a Fed governor until January 2028. President Trump, who is expected to announce a new Fed chair pick soon, has pressured Powell on rate cuts.

• Powell advised his successor to 'stay out of elected politics' and maintain democratic accountability through regular engagement with Congress
• The Fed held interest rates steady in January after cutting rates by 25 basis points at each of its final three meetings in 2024
• Leading contenders for Trump's Fed chair pick include former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, NEC Director Kevin Hassett, Fed Governor Christopher Waller, and BlackRock's Rick Rieder

The S&P 500 broke above 7,000 points for the first time on January 28, 2026, as the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady while flagging rising inflation risks. The dollar rallied on its best day since mid-November, while major tech earnings from Meta, Tesla, and IBM boosted investor sentiment, though concerns about AI-driven job losses emerged.

• Fed kept rates unchanged with traders expecting another quarter-point cut by July; policymakers reaffirmed 'strong dollar' policy amid currency volatility
• Tech sector showed mixed results: Meta surged 10%, Microsoft gained 4%, and Tesla jumped 11%, though companies announced significant layoffs tied to AI productivity gains
• Gold hit a fresh 4-month high while silver rose 3%; Treasury yields increased up to 3 basis points as the curve bear steepened

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5% to 3.75% on January 28, 2026, resisting pressure from President Donald Trump to cut borrowing costs. The decision comes as Trump prepares to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends in May, amid an ongoing feud over the pace of rate cuts.

• The Fed cited 'solid' economic expansion and 'somewhat elevated' inflation as reasons to maintain rates, despite cutting three times in 2025
• Two Fed officials voted for a rate cut, including Christopher Waller who is under consideration to replace Powell as chair
• Powell is under criminal investigation related to congressional testimony about a $2.5bn building renovation, while Trump's pressure on the Fed has prompted Republican senators to voice support for central bank independence

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in January 2026, pausing after three consecutive cuts in late 2024. Fed Chair Powell indicated no urgency for further cuts, citing a strong economy despite elevated inflation and consumer confidence hitting 12-year lows. The decision highlights a growing economic divide where AI infrastructure investment drives GDP growth more than consumer spending, benefiting stock owners while leaving 38% of Americans without market exposure struggling.

• Consumer confidence collapsed to 84.5, the lowest since May 2014, while 401(k) balances hit record highs of $144,400 average and 654,000 millionaire accounts, up 10% quarter-over-quarter
• AI-related capital spending contributed 1.1% to GDP growth in H1 2025, exceeding household consumption's contribution, with tech giants investing $437 billion in AI infrastructure, up 61% year-over-year
• Futures markets price 60.4% probability of a rate cut by June 2026, while gold surged 6% and silver 10% following the announcement, reflecting investor uncertainty about economic trajectory

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% on Wednesday, ending a three-cut streak and signaling a prolonged pause in rate reductions. Chair Jerome Powell avoided political commentary and emphasized the Fed's focus on solid economic growth, near-term inflation concerns from tariffs, and stable labor markets. Markets showed little reaction, with traders still pricing in about 60% odds of two quarter-point cuts later this year.

• Two Fed officials dissented in favor of another quarter-point cut: Governors Stephen Miran and Christopher Waller, with Miran shifting from previous half-point cut preferences
• Powell deflected political questions five times, advising his successor to 'stay out of elected politics' amid ongoing controversies surrounding the Fed
• Analysts view the decision as hawkish despite the rate hold, with the Fed raising the bar for further cuts and policy rates seen as closer to neutral given current economic conditions

SpaceX is reportedly preparing for a 2026 IPO with four major Wall Street banks after completing a tender offer at an $800 billion valuation. The public offering could catalyze a wave of IPOs from other late-stage unicorns including OpenAI, Stripe, and Databricks. Secondary market activity for SpaceX shares is experiencing exceptionally high demand ahead of the potential listing.

• SpaceX recently completed a tender offer valued at $800 billion, establishing a massive pre-IPO valuation benchmark
• Secondary market demand for SpaceX shares is 'through the roof' as tech employees seek liquidity before the public offering
• A successful SpaceX IPO could trigger an 'IPO cascade' among other major late-stage unicorns that have delayed going public