General Market News

U.S. markets rose Monday with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq gaining on a tech rebound, led by big tech stocks. Asian markets followed suit Tuesday, with Japan's Nikkei 225 jumping over 2% as investors bet on Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's economic policies in the so-called 'Takaichi trade.' Despite the rally, concerns persist about Big Tech's heavy capital expenditures and potential overcapacity in data centers.

• The Nasdaq jumped 0.9% and S&P 500 rose 0.47% Monday, with major tech stocks leading gains, while the Dow reached another record close with a 0.04% increase
• Alphabet warned of potential 'excess capacity' in data centers but is planning to raise funds through a U.S. dollar bond sale that includes a 100-year sterling-denominated bond
• Taiwan's Vice Premier called it 'impossible' to relocate 40% of chip supply chain to the U.S., pushing back against plans outlined by U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick

US stock futures edged lower in Asian trading on February 10, 2026, as traders awaited key economic data including retail sales and corporate earnings from Coca-Cola and Ford. Despite the overnight pullback, expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in the first half of 2026 continue to support a bullish medium-term outlook for major indices.

• White House economic advisor warned of potential near-term weakness in labor market data, though bets on an H1 2026 Fed rate cut remain supportive of equity markets
• US retail sales for December are expected to rise 0.4% month-on-month, with earnings from consumer-focused companies Coca-Cola and Ford providing additional insights into demand trends
• Technical indicators show Nasdaq 100 E-mini trading below its 50-day EMA but above 200-day EMA, while Dow Jones and S&P 500 E-mini remain above both EMAs, signaling mixed near-term but bullish longer-term outlook

U.S. and Japanese markets rose Monday, with the S&P 500 hitting back-to-back gains and Japan's Nikkei reaching new highs following Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's landslide election victory. The 'Takaichi trade' is driving expectations of looser monetary policy and higher government spending, boosting equities while weakening the yen. Big Tech stocks rallied despite ongoing concerns about AI infrastructure capex and data center capacity.

• Big Tech led U.S. gains with one unnamed stock jumping 9.6%, helping the Nasdaq climb 0.9% and S&P 500 rise 0.47% to another record close
• Alphabet plans to raise funds from a U.S. dollar bond sale including a 100-year sterling-denominated bond, despite warning of potential 'excess capacity' in data centers
• S&P Global Ratings lowered China property sales forecast for 2026 to a 10-15% decline, worse than the October prediction of 5-8% decline

The Trump administration plans to exempt major tech firms including Amazon, Google, and Microsoft from upcoming chip tariffs if they build AI data centers, according to a Financial Times report. The carve-outs would be tied to investment commitments from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), which is investing $165 billion in Arizona factories. The plans remain in flux and have not yet been signed by President Trump.

• The Commerce Department would provide tariff exemptions specifically linked to TSMC's investment commitments in the U.S.
• TSMC, the world's largest contract chipmaker, is investing $165 billion to build manufacturing facilities in Arizona
• The carve-out policy has not been finalized or signed by Trump, according to administration officials

Clear Street Group is leading a busy IPO week with a planned $1 billion offering that values the cloud-based capital markets platform firm at approximately $12-13 billion. The uptick in IPO activity follows a slow January, with seven companies going public last week including Once Upon a Farm, which has surged 35% since its debut.

• Clear Street plans to offer 23.8 million shares on Nasdaq under symbol CLRS, with trading expected Friday; Goldman Sachs, BofA Securities, Morgan Stanley and BMO Capital Markets are lead underwriters
• Other notable IPOs this week include Brazilian fintech AGI raising $720 million, power plant builder SOLV Energy raising $482 million, and fuel distributor Arko Petroleum raising $200 million
• Once Upon a Farm, cofounded by actress Jennifer Garner, raised approximately $200 million in its IPO last week and has gained 35% from its $18 opening price

Goldman Sachs' Panic Index has reached 9.22, signaling 'max fear' levels in markets, with analysts warning of up to $33 billion in potential equity selling this week. Despite Friday's 2% rally in the S&P 500, Goldman estimates an additional $80 billion could be shed if the index falls below 6,707, driven by systematic fund selling amid elevated volatility.

• Goldman's Panic Index hit 9.22, reflecting investors paying up for downside protection as market volatility surges
• Analysts estimate $33 billion in US equity selling could occur this week, with potential for $80 billion more if S&P 500 breaks below 6,707
• Commodity Trading Advisers are expected to remain net sellers regardless of market direction, while Friday's 2% rally is viewed as a relief bounce rather than a fundamental shift

Wall Street anticipates a breakout year for U.S. IPOs in 2026, with Goldman Sachs projecting a record $160 billion in proceeds. High-profile private companies including SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are positioned for potential mega listings. A strong pipeline of late-stage private companies is driving optimism, though risks from recent market volatility remain.

• SpaceX is planning a blockbuster IPO potentially valuing the company at over $200 billion as soon as June 2026, which could surpass Saudi Aramco's 2019 record if it raises more than $25.6 billion
• OpenAI is reportedly preparing for an IPO that could value it at up to $1 trillion, with a possible filing in the second half of 2026, though its CFO has stated an IPO is not in near-term plans
• AI startup Anthropic hired Wilson Sonsini law firm to prepare for a potential 2026 IPO, though the company has not officially decided on timing or whether to go public

US stocks opened lower on Monday, with the Dow falling over 100 points and the Nasdaq down 0.4%, as investors turned cautious ahead of key economic data releases and earnings reports. The decline follows Friday's historic session when the Dow surged 1,200 points to close above 50,000 for the first time. Markets are now focused on delayed January jobs data and inflation figures due later this week.

• The Dow's historic Friday rally of roughly 1,200 points (2.5%) marked its first close above 50,000, following a sharp technology-driven selloff earlier in the week
• Wednesday's delayed January nonfarm payrolls report is expected to show just 55,000 jobs added, significantly weaker than normal, with economists anticipating downward revisions to prior year data
• Friday's consumer price index for January is forecast at 2.5% annually, while corporate earnings from Coca-Cola and Ford Motor on Tuesday could influence sector rotation away from technology stocks

Waters Corporation forecast first-quarter 2026 profit below Wall Street expectations, causing shares to slide, though the company projected better-than-expected full-year profit. The weaker outlook reflects challenges with its recent acquisition of Becton Dickinson's bioscience and diagnostics business, which posted lower-than-anticipated fourth-quarter sales of $766 million versus analyst estimates of $1.3 billion.

• Waters expects Q1 2026 earnings of $2.25-$2.35 per share, missing analyst estimates of $2.46 per share
• Full-year 2026 profit forecast of $14.30-$14.50 per share exceeded consensus estimate of $14.15 per share, with projected 5.3% combined company sales growth
• The acquired Becton Dickinson unit is expected to add approximately $3 billion to 2026 revenue, but Q4 sales of $766 million fell significantly short of the $1.3 billion estimate, suggesting operational improvement challenges

AI stocks experienced increased volatility in early 2026 as major tech companies Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta significantly ramped up capital spending for AI infrastructure. Software stocks were particularly hard hit amid concerns about AI coding tools and automation potentially disrupting traditional business models, while some optical networking and data infrastructure plays remained strong. Hyperscalers are now expected to spend $645 billion in 2026, a 56% increase representing $230 billion more than the prior year.

• Four major hyperscalers (Google, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft) projected to spend $645 billion in 2026, up 56% or $230 billion year-over-year, raising concerns about debt financing and infrastructure depreciation
• Software stocks faced significant selloffs following Anthropic's launch of AI automation tools for coding, legal, and financial work, with investors worried about disruption to 'per seat' licensing models and potential job elimination
• Performance diverged sharply among AI stocks: Lumentum up 49% YTD 2026 and Ciena up 16%, while Oracle down 26%, Salesforce down 28%, and Palantir down 23%

The Trump administration proposed eliminating fired federal employees' right to appeal dismissals to the independent Merit Systems Protection Board, instead requiring appeals through the Office of Personnel Management, which reports directly to President Trump. This change would further limit legal recourse for workers amid mass federal layoffs, with OPM reporting 317,000 employees departed in 2025. The proposal represents another step in undermining job protections for federal workers during Trump's second term.

• Fired federal workers would lose access to the independent Merit Systems Protection Board for appeals, instead forced to appeal through OPM whose director reports to Trump
• The Trump administration pushed out 317,000 federal employees in 2025, though OPM Director Scott Kupor claims only a fraction were fired with most accepting buyouts or leaving voluntarily
• The proposal builds on Trump's broader efforts to shrink federal government and undermine enforcement offices that protect federal employee job rights

US stock futures retreated Monday morning, reversing relief rally gains from the prior week when the Dow crossed 50,000 for the first time. The pullback follows volatile trading sparked by algorithmic overreactions to AI headlines, particularly surrounding Anthropic's new Claude corporate tools. Market analysts suggest the dramatic swings reflected momentum trading rather than fundamental changes.

• The Dow surged 1,207 points (2.5%) on Friday to close above 50,000 at 50,115, while the S&P 500 jumped 2% and Nasdaq climbed 2.2%, recovering from Thursday's AI-driven selloff
• Algorithmic trading amplified market swings as traders initially panicked over Anthropic's AI launch, fearing job losses and margin compression, before reversing course when no fundamental changes materialized
• Key economic data looms this week including retail sales, mortgage applications, and January's delayed non-farm payrolls report

U.S. stock futures edged lower early Monday as traders positioned ahead of key economic data releases, including a delayed jobs report on Wednesday and CPI data on Friday. The pullback follows a strong Friday rebound that lifted the Dow above 50,000 for the first time and temporarily relieved pressure on tech stocks after an eight-day losing streak in the software sector.

• Wednesday's delayed jobs report expects 55,000 new jobs (down from a weak 22,000 private-payroll print), with outcomes likely to influence Federal Reserve rate expectations and near-term market sentiment.
• Friday's CPI data is forecast at 2.5% annual increase; a cooler reading could support risk assets while a hotter number may reignite inflation concerns after recent interest-rate repricing.
• The March E-mini S&P 500 futures contract is testing its 50-day moving average at 6934.55, with a sustained break above 6980.25 needed to signal true breakout momentum toward the record high at 7043.00.

Asian stocks rose Monday following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's decisive election victory, which gave her party a two-thirds majority in parliament's lower house. The mandate for expansionary fiscal measures and tax cuts pushed the Nikkei up nearly 4% to a new all-time high above 56,000. U.S. futures held steady after Friday's chipmaker-led rebound, with investors awaiting key economic data including January's delayed employment report.

• Takaichi's Liberal Democratic Party secured over two-thirds of parliament seats, clearing the way for increased spending and tax cuts that drove the Nikkei to surpass 56,000 for the first time
• U.S. chipmakers rallied sharply Friday with Nvidia, AMD and Broadcom all jumping over 7%, while the Russell 2000 gained 3.5% as investors rotated into smaller-cap stocks
• Investors are focused on upcoming U.S. economic data including retail sales and CPI to gauge whether the economy remains soft enough to support hopes for three rate cuts in 2026

S&P Global Ratings has sharply lowered its 2026 forecast for China's primary real estate sales to a 10-14% decline, worse than the 5-8% drop predicted just in October. The ratings agency warns that the property downturn is so entrenched that only government intervention can absorb excess inventory, as oversupply continues despite six consecutive years of unsold completed housing. The slump is particularly concerning as price declines have now spread to China's largest cities, undermining buyer confidence.

• China's property sales fell 12.6% in 2025 to 8.4 trillion yuan ($1.21 trillion), less than half the 18.3 trillion yuan peak in 2021, with the market having accounted for over a quarter of the economy
• Prices are expected to drop another 2-4% in 2026 following similar declines in 2025, with major cities like Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen reporting at least 3% price declines last year
• Four of the 10 Chinese developers rated by S&P could face downward rating pressure if sales fall 10 percentage points below the base case forecast for 2026-2027

U.S. markets face a critical week with Wednesday's jobs report and Friday's CPI data taking center stage as investors assess the Fed's rate path. Sector rotation continues as tech stocks declined 1.84% (Nasdaq) while the Dow hit a record high at 50,115.68, rising 2.50% on strength in industrials, energy, and financials. Major earnings from Coca-Cola, Cisco, Shopify, and Airbnb will provide key insights into consumer and tech sector health.

• Jobs data Wednesday forecasts +70K payrolls with 4.4% unemployment; Friday's CPI expected +0.3% monthly with core CPI at +0.3%, while annual CPI forecast to ease to +2.5% from +2.7%
• Software stocks have plunged nearly 25% over three months due to AI disruption concerns and surging capital expenditure, while 'old economy' sectors benefit from the strongest U.S. factory activity (ISM) since 2022
• Fed speakers throughout the week (Waller, Bostic, Logan, Hammack) will be parsed for signals on rate cuts, with markets sensitive to hawkish tones as officials signal rates may stay on hold longer

Goldman Sachs warns that the February 2026 stock market sell-off is likely to continue despite a brief Friday rally, with algorithmic funds poised to dump approximately $33 billion in equities if downtrends resume. The warning comes amid mounting concerns over record January layoffs driven by AI investments, trade war instability, and thin market liquidity that could amplify volatility.

• January 2026 saw 108,435 job cuts, up 118% from January 2025 and the highest since the 2009 Great Recession, driven by big tech companies straining capital reserves on AI investments
• Goldman Sachs identifies thin liquidity and dominant net short positions as factors likely to magnify volatility and cause outsized losses in the second week of February
• AI investments require trillions in revenue by 2030 to pay off, a target many experts consider impossible, while major tech companies including Meta (reportedly firing up to 30,000 workers) continue mass layoffs

Michael Burry attributed the February 2026 market sell-off to historic overvaluation, massive AI-related capital expenditures, and minimal AI revenue returns, dismissing claims that Anthropic AI news drove the downturn. Major tech stocks including Microsoft and Amazon fell sharply during the first week of February, with concerns mounting over the mismatch between heavy AI infrastructure spending and actual revenue generation. The market volatility reflects broader investor anxiety about sustainability of AI investments amid slowing growth and margin compression at major technology companies.

• Microsoft and Amazon stocks led 'Magnificent 7' declines, with Amazon falling 13.43% from $242.96 to $210.32 between February 2-9, despite mostly strong earnings results
• AI infrastructure concerns intensified as data center buildouts face electricity shortages, water supply issues, and estimates suggesting up to 50% of facilities could remain dormant due to mismatched capacity and demand
• Nvidia announced gaming chip production cuts due to global memory shortages, highlighting strain on the semiconductor supply chain that previously fueled its core business before the AI boom

U.S. Treasury yields rose at the start of the week as investors prepare for a heavy calendar of delayed economic data releases. The 10-year yield climbed over 2 basis points to 4.231%, while multiple reports postponed by the partial government shutdown are set to be released throughout the week.

• The delayed January jobs report, now scheduled for Wednesday, is expected to show 60,000 jobs added versus 50,000 in December, with unemployment forecast to hold at 4.4%
• Key data releases include December retail sales (Tuesday), January nonfarm payrolls (Wednesday), weekly jobless claims (Thursday), and January CPI (Friday)
• The 2-year yield rose 1 basis point to 4.874% and the 5-year note yield increased over 1 basis point to 3.514%

Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and her Liberal Democratic Party won a supermajority in Sunday's election, giving her broad authority to pursue increased spending and tax relief policies. The Nikkei 225 climbed to record highs on Monday as the yen strengthened to 156.88 per dollar, reflecting renewed investor confidence. This positive momentum follows Friday's strong rebound in U.S. markets, where the Dow closed above 50,000 for the first time.

• Takaichi's LDP secured a two-thirds supermajority in the Lower House, enabling her to boost spending and suspend some food-related taxes
• The Nikkei 225 crossed 57,000 in early trading for the first time, while the yen strengthened against the dollar
• U.S. markets rallied Friday with the Dow breaking 50,000, the S&P 500 gaining 1.97% back into positive territory for 2026, and tech stocks leading despite Big Tech losing over $1 trillion collectively in the past week