General Market News

The Trump administration informed leading AI companies on Tuesday that it will not conduct safety testing on open-weight AI models, according to sources familiar with the discussions. This policy shift signals a hands-off regulatory approach to AI development, specifically for models where the underlying weights are publicly accessible.

• The decision applies specifically to open-weight AI models, which allow broader access to the underlying model parameters
• Major AI companies were notified of this policy during discussions with Trump advisers
• The move represents a deregulatory stance that may accelerate open-source AI development without government safety oversight

The Dow Jones and S&P 500 reached record highs on Tuesday, with the Dow climbing 912 points (1.7%) and the S&P 500 rising 1.8%. The rally was driven by strong AI-related earnings from companies like Palantir and Caterpillar, combined with a sharp drop in oil prices amid diplomatic progress with Iran.

• Palantir surged 30% after beating earnings and raising guidance, while Micron jumped 7% and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained nearly 7%, extending the tech sector's recovery from July's selloff
• Caterpillar rose 6% after raising its full-year revenue outlook, citing growing demand for equipment linked to AI data center expansion
• Oil prices fell sharply (WTI down 5.69% to $75.77) on hopes of US-Iran diplomatic breakthrough, easing inflation concerns and reducing Fed rate hike probability from 67.2% to 56.9% for September

U.S. stocks surged to record highs on Tuesday, with the Dow jumping over 900 points and the S&P 500 gaining nearly 2% in one of its biggest single-day advances of the year. The broad rally was driven by multiple positive catalysts including progress on Iran tensions, strong earnings results, and technical factors.

• Treasury Secretary Bessent announced potential deal with Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz, causing oil prices to drop and bond yields to fall, easing investor concerns about the conflict's economic impact
• S&P 500 companies are delivering exceptional Q2 earnings growth of 27% year-over-year (45% including Alphabet and Amazon), with strong double-digit growth across healthcare, industrials, financials, and consumer staples sectors
• The S&P 500 broke through key resistance at 7,620 (June high) to close above 7,700 for the first time, with analysts projecting the index could reach 8,100 by year-end based on positive trends in earnings, inflation, and employment

The Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to revise the PCE price index methodology as early as September, with changes expected to lower measured inflation by approximately 0.3 percentage points. The revisions will adjust how portfolio management services and software prices are calculated, reducing the index's sensitivity to the AI-driven stock market rally and potentially making the Fed's 2% inflation target more attainable.

• Portfolio management methodology will shift from assets-under-management fees to firm revenues relative to services, reducing inflation by 0.2 percentage points
• Software price calculations will broaden to include video game software and web hosting, lowering inflation by roughly 0.1 percentage points
• The revised components account for 4% of core PCE but only 1% of core CPI, indicating their outsized influence on Fed's preferred inflation measure

American consumers are facing significantly elevated beef prices as the U.S. cattle herd has shrunk to its lowest level in over 70 years due to drought and higher operating costs for ranchers. Major meatpacker Tyson Foods reported a $138 million loss in its beef segment with sales volume down 15.9%, while beef prices have risen 11.8% year-over-year according to June CPI data.

• Beef prices increased 11.8% annually with ground beef up 12.4%, steaks up 11.4%, and beef roasts up 13.8% year-over-year through June 2024
• Tyson Foods' beef division posted a $138 million loss with 15.9% sales volume decline as constrained supply pushed input costs higher and pricing increased 12.1%
• USDA will resume cattle imports from Mexico in late August after a year-long suspension due to screwworm outbreak, though this won't materially impact supply until 2027

Palo Alto Networks (PANW) stock is extending its rally, up 4.1% to $361.35 and approaching mid-July record highs, marking its fourth consecutive daily gain. Historical data shows PANW is one of the top S&P 500 performers in August, averaging 5.5% returns with an 80% win rate over the past decade. The stock could benefit from elevated put/call ratios indicating excessive bearish sentiment and a high volatility scorecard suggesting potential for outsized moves.

• PANW has averaged 5.5% returns in August over the past 10 years with an 80% monthly gain rate, making it one of the top S&P 500 performers during this period
• The stock's 10-day put/call volume ratio of 1.51 ranks higher than 98% of annual readings, suggesting excessive bearish positioning that could unwind and fuel further gains
• PANW's Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard of 95 out of 100 indicates the stock has consistently exceeded option traders' volatility expectations over the past year

Oil prices plunged approximately 5% on August 4, 2026, after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent indicated significant progress toward a U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The potential agreement, which could be finalized within days, would allow passage through the strategic waterway without tolls and may involve EU nations in mine removal operations.

• WTI crude dropped below $76.00 with potential support at $73.00-$73.50, while Brent crude fell below the $80.00 psychological level, testing support at $79.00
• Qatar confirmed a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz has been drafted and awaits confirmation from both the U.S. and Iran, with no transit tolls expected
• Natural gas declined toward the $2.70 level amid strong production and high storage levels, with traders anticipating a move to $2.50-$2.55 support if the decline continues

The White House is expected to extend a waiver of the Jones Act shipping restrictions in the coming days as President Trump seeks tools to lower gasoline prices, which are averaging over $4 per gallon ahead of midterm elections. The waiver, set to expire August 16, has already been used nearly 200 times and represents the longest Jones Act suspension in history, though officials are discussing narrowing its scope amid pressure from maritime groups and Republican lawmakers.

• The Jones Act waiver has been used nearly 200 times through end-July and is set to expire August 16, making it the longest suspension in the program's history
• Experts estimate the waiver's impact on gasoline prices is minimal, likely reducing costs by only pennies per gallon despite increased shipping flexibility
• Maritime industry groups and key Republican lawmakers including House Speaker Mike Johnson are pushing to limit the exemption, warning it undermines the domestic fleet and benefits foreign operators linked to China and Russia

Jefferies Financial Group discovered that invoices supporting its financing to iron ore trader Sapphire Minmetals Corp are fraudulent, according to Bloomberg News. The bank verified the invoices with Vitol Group and confirmed they are not genuine, dealing another blow to Jefferies and its Point Bonita fund.

• The fake invoices underpinned financing provided by Jefferies to Sapphire Minmetals Corp, an iron ore trader
• Jefferies verified the invoices directly with Vitol Group, which confirmed they were not genuine
• The discovery represents a further setback for Jefferies' Point Bonita fund, which was already troubled

Energy Transfer LP reported Q2 2026 earnings of 59 cents per unit, beating consensus estimates by 51% as earnings rose 84.4% year-over-year. Record NGL transportation volumes of 2.64 million barrels per day and crude volumes of 7.34 million barrels drove revenue growth of 78.4% to $34.33 billion. The company raised its 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $18.8-$19.1 billion.

• NGL transportation volumes hit a record 2.64 million barrels per day (up 13%), while crude oil volumes reached 7.34 million barrels per day (up 4%), driven by stronger Permian and export activity
• Adjusted EBITDA increased 31% to $5.07 billion, with distributable cash flow up 32% to $2.59 billion; growth capex is projected at $5.6-$5.9 billion for 2026
• The Hugh Brinson Pipeline entered commercial service and is expected to reach full Phase I capacity of 1.5 Bcf per day by September 1, 2026

Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG) reported second-quarter 2026 adjusted earnings of 86 cents per share, beating consensus estimates by 7.5% with an 11.7% year-over-year increase. However, operating revenues fell 8.9% to $2.55 billion, missing estimates, as gas sales declined 23% despite a 2% increase in electric sales. The company maintained its 2026 adjusted earnings guidance of $4.28-$4.40 per share.

• Adjusted EPS of $0.86 exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 7.5% and increased 11.7% year-over-year, while operating income dropped 43.6% to $461 million
• Electric sales rose 2% to 9,629 million kWh driven by residential growth, but total gas sales plummeted 23% to 541 million therms with non-firm commercial sales down 45%
• PSE&G segment revenues grew 5.2% to $2.14 billion on infrastructure investments, while PSEG Power revenues fell 42% to $534 million despite higher operating earnings from improved pricing and nuclear generation

The ISM manufacturing index reached 55.6 in August 2026, its highest level in four years, marking seven consecutive months of expansion. Combined with record S&P 500 profit margins of 16.7% and persistent inflation, this economic strength suggests the Federal Reserve may raise interest rates in 2026 rather than cutting them as previously expected.

• The ISM manufacturing index hit 55.6, the highest since May 2022, showing the economy is gaining momentum rather than slowing down
• S&P 500 net profit margins reached a record 16.7% in Q2 2026, the highest since FactSet began tracking in 2009, demonstrating corporate resilience despite elevated borrowing costs
• Rising energy prices from the Iran conflict, firming CPI data, and strong economic growth may prompt the Fed to tighten policy further before year-end, shifting expected rate hikes from 2027 into 2026

ASE Technology's stock has surged 82% over the past six months, prompting analysis of whether investors should buy, sell, or hold the stock. The article from Zacks Investment Research examines the semiconductor packaging and testing company's recent performance and future prospects to provide investment guidance.

• ASE Technology has delivered an 82% return over a six-month period, significantly outperforming broader market indices
• The company operates in the semiconductor packaging and testing industry, a critical segment of the chip supply chain
• Investors face a decision point on whether the stock's strong momentum justifies further investment or if gains should be locked in

U.S. factory orders fell 0.3% in June, defying economist expectations of a 0.2% rebound, marking the second consecutive monthly decline. Despite the unexpected drop, year-over-year orders rose 5.3%, supported by continued business investment in AI infrastructure and front-loading due to supply chain concerns from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.

• Orders for computers and electronic products jumped 3.2% in June and were up 13.9% year-over-year, reflecting strong AI-related demand
• Core capital goods orders (non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft) were revised upward to 1.2% growth, indicating solid business equipment spending plans
• Sharp declines occurred in defense aircraft and parts orders (down 7.2%) and mining/oil field machinery orders (down 27.2%)

WTI crude oil futures fell to around $77.64 on August 4, 2026, testing the 200-day EMA amid conflicting headlines about potential U.S.-Iran negotiations. Trump administration officials suggested a deal may be possible while Iran denies such claims, creating significant volatility and uncertainty in oil markets. The analyst warns traders about the dangers of taking aggressive positions given rapidly shifting narratives.

• WTI crude is trading near $77.64 with support at the $70 level and resistance at $95, while Brent trades around $81.61 near its 200-day EMA
• Conflicting statements from the Trump administration (suggesting possible Iran deal) and Iranian denials are causing daily narrative shifts and market whiplash
• The analyst considers the market 'very dangerous to trade' due to headline-driven volatility and recommends caution against aggressive positioning in either direction

U.S. stock indices rallied on August 4, 2026, with all three major indexes breaking above key technical levels and approaching all-time highs. The Nasdaq 100 surpassed its 50-day moving average at 29,128, the Dow Jones hit fresh highs above 53,827, and the S&P 500 broke above 7,600. Positive earnings reports and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts are fueling the bullish momentum.

• The S&P 500 is approaching all-time highs with a potential measured move target of 7,900, supported by strong earnings and technical breakout patterns
• The Dow Jones 30 reached fresh highs above 53,000, with the 50-day EMA acting as support and the index trading near the top of its bullish channel
• The Nasdaq 100 reclaimed the 28,500 support level and broke above its 50-day moving average, signaling renewed buyer interest in technology stocks

Philadelphia Federal Reserve President Anna Paulson stated in her first CNBC interview that current interest rates at 3.5%-3.75% are sufficiently restrictive to bring inflation back to the Fed's 2% target. She voted with the majority to hold rates steady at last week's FOMC meeting, describing it as 'not a close call' despite a 9-3 vote split. Paulson emphasized she needs to see more progress on underlying inflation before considering any policy changes.

• Paulson believes underlying inflation is around 2.4%-2.8%, excluding energy shocks and tariffs, while the Fed's primary measure showed 3.3% in June
• She supports maintaining 'mildly restrictive' policy but will remain open to recalibrating rates if inflation progress stalls
• The policymaker is keeping an open mind about potential changes Chairman Kevin Warsh discussed, including reducing the frequency of FOMC meetings from eight per year

Taiwanese server manufacturer Wistron, a Nvidia supplier, reported a 128% surge in second-quarter net profit to $457.86 million, driven by strong AI server demand from cloud providers and enterprise customers. The company is expanding capacity with $10.5 billion in additional capital expenditure at Taiwan facilities and recently launched a $700 million manufacturing facility in Texas.

• Second-quarter revenue jumped 64% to T$895.44 billion ($27.6 billion), with AI server demand continuing to exceed supply
• Board approved T$10.5 billion in additional capital expenditure for Taiwan facility expansion and filing to issue up to 250 million new common shares
• Company opened a $700 million manufacturing facility in Texas in July to produce Nvidia's latest AI systems

Fidelity National Information Services (FIS) cut its 2026 annual revenue and profit forecasts on Tuesday, causing shares to slide. The payments and banking processing firm cited economic uncertainty linked to the Iran war and U.S. trade policy, which have made institutions and retailers cautious about technology spending.

• FIS lowered its 2026 adjusted earnings forecast to $6.15-$6.24 per share and reduced revenue guidance to $13.63-$13.70 billion from a prior range of $13.77-$13.85 billion
• Economic uncertainty from the Iran war and U.S. trade policy has reduced demand for certain banking and capital-markets products as clients remain cautious on tech spending
• Despite headwinds, CEO Stephanie Ferris noted that banks continue investing in technology modernization and artificial intelligence, supporting demand for some FIS products

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated the U.S. joined Japan's yen-buying intervention to stabilize Asia's financial markets, citing risks that further yen weakness could trigger competitive currency devaluations across the region. Bessent emphasized that while intervention sends market signals, Japan must follow with supportive monetary and fiscal policies to sustain currency stability.

• The intervention targeted what Bessent called 'substantial undervaluation' of the yen, which threatened to pressure other Asian currencies including the South Korean won and Chinese yuan
• Bessent warned that intervention alone cannot determine currency direction, stating 'You can give market signals with intervention, but it's policy that turns it'
• The U.S. participated because of the yen's critical role in regional trade flows, Japan's economic size, and its contribution to global savings markets