General Market News

Goldman Sachs warns that bond markets are overly focused on inflation risks while underpricing the threat of economic slowdown. The bank argues that surging energy prices could shift attention from sticky inflation to demand destruction and weaker growth, potentially driving yields lower. Goldman recommends selective positioning rather than outright volatility selling in US rates markets.

• Goldman believes downside risks to yields have increased and are currently underpriced following March's energy-driven inflation shock
• 2-year US Treasury risk reversals are at their lowest levels since the peak of the hiking cycle, suggesting markets are overpricing protection against higher yields while underweighting growth risks
• The bank favours receiver spreads as limited-risk hedges against adverse outcomes and recommends fading payer skew through risk reversals rather than selling volatility outright

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• Article title indicates oil prices surged and gold dropped amid Iran war escalation
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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent ruled out U.S. government intervention in oil futures markets despite the Iran conflict, stating the administration will instead focus on increasing physical crude oil supply. The strategy includes unsanctioning approximately 260 million barrels of Venezuelan and Iranian floating oil and utilizing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to offset potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.

• Bessent said the U.S. could unsanction about 130 million barrels of Venezuelan oil and 140 million barrels of Iranian floating storage, totaling 260 million barrels of additional physical supply
• A 400 million-barrel Strategic Petroleum Reserve release was approved last week, with potential for additional unilateral releases to stabilize prices
• The supply strategy aims to cover a potential temporary deficit of 10-14 million barrels per day for approximately three weeks if Strait of Hormuz shipping is disrupted

US stock markets fell sharply on Thursday, with the Dow Jones down 298 points (0.65%), S&P 500 dropping 0.81%, and Nasdaq declining 1.13%. The selloff was driven by surging oil prices following Middle East tensions, particularly Iranian attacks on Israeli energy facilities, combined with persistent inflation concerns and the Federal Reserve's cautious stance on rate cuts.

• Brent crude surged 5% to $113-$115 per barrel after Iran targeted Israeli energy facilities and infrastructure in Qatar, raising fears of prolonged supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz.
• The Federal Reserve held rates steady and projected only one rate cut in 2026, with Chair Jerome Powell warning of rising near-term inflation risks; major banks now expect easing delayed until mid-2027.
• Tech stocks declined with Micron down 7% on profit-taking and Nvidia falling 2.46%, while Rivian surged 11% on news of an Uber partnership for robotaxi fleets.

Following the Federal Reserve's latest meeting, traders have removed expectations for any interest rate cut in 2026, with market pricing showing only a 17.2% chance of a quarter-point reduction. Fed Chair Jerome Powell's optimistic economic assessment and minimal attention to the Iran war prompted what market veteran Ed Yardeni termed a 'taper tantrum,' causing stocks to decline as investors concluded the Fed will remain on pause despite ongoing uncertainties.

• Fed funds futures now show just 17.2% probability of a rate cut this year, down from earlier expectations of cuts in June and September, with the probability of a rate hike rising to 8.4%
• Powell called economic growth 'solid' despite zero net job growth and inflation above the Fed's 2% target, barely addressing the Iran war's economic implications
• For the Fed's next meeting on April 28-29, traders are pricing in zero chance of a cut and a 10.3% probability of a quarter-point rate increase

The Dow Jones Index has fallen 9% from its 2026 peak to 46,040, nearing correction territory amid escalating US-Iran tensions and surging energy prices. Technical indicators suggest further downside to potentially 43,615, while the Fear and Greed Index has plunged to 17, indicating extreme fear among investors.

• Energy prices have soared with Brent crude jumping to $116 and WTI to $96, raising inflation concerns and prompting some analysts to predict two Fed rate hikes in 2026
• Technical analysis shows the index has broken below key support levels including the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, with the ADX momentum indicator reaching 31, its highest since October 2025
• Major Dow components have suffered sharp declines over 30 days, with Dow Inc. down 17%, Sherwin-Williams down 16.5%, and most blue-chip stocks falling over 9.5%

US stock futures pointed to further declines on March 19, 2026, following escalating Middle East tensions that sent oil prices soaring to three-year highs. Israel struck Iran's South Pars gas field, prompting Iranian retaliation against Qatar's LNG infrastructure, while President Trump distanced the US from the attack and threatened further action if strikes continued.

• Dow Jones and S&P 500 futures fell over 0.5%, with Nasdaq futures down 0.6%, extending losses after the Fed held rates unchanged and Chair Powell said it was 'too soon' to assess oil price impacts
• WTI crude climbed above $99 per barrel and Brent topped $119 before retreating to below $113 as tensions escalated between Israel, Iran, and Qatar over energy infrastructure attacks
• Global markets showed risk-off sentiment with London's FTSE 100 down nearly 300 points (2.9%), while the Bank of England and ECB held rates but signaled concerns about inflation from rising energy prices

Investors are flooding into bond ETFs amid market uncertainty, with $14.1 billion flowing into U.S. bond ETFs in the week ended March 13, representing over half of all ETF inflows. Bond funds are outperforming the S&P 500 in 2024, with the broad market bond ETF up 0.6% while stocks are down nearly 2%, attracting investors seeking stability and diversification.

• Inflation-linked bond ETFs drew $600 million in March and $11 billion over 12 of the last 13 months, reflecting sustained investor demand for inflation protection
• Top-performing bond ETFs include Simplify Bond Bull ETF (up 15.18% YTD) and convertible bond funds like iShares Convertible Bond ETF (up 6.25% YTD, 16.2% annualized over 3 years)
• Convertible bonds offer hybrid exposure, allowing conversion to stock while providing bond stability, with top holdings including tech names like Lumentum and Western Digital

U.S. Treasury yields rose across the curve on Thursday as inflation fears tied to the U.S.-Iran conflict weighed on investor sentiment. The benchmark 10-year yield climbed to 4.289%, while the 2-year note jumped 7.1 basis points to 3.814%. Concerns center on potential energy shocks from Middle East tensions, including attacks on energy infrastructure and disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz oil shipping route.

• The Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged and raised its inflation and interest rate projections, with Chair Powell adopting a 'more watchful tone on inflation' that led investors to price out rate cuts for the year
• Multiple central banks in Japan, Switzerland, and Sweden also held rates steady, citing the Iran war as a key factor in their decisions
• Oil prices surged following strikes on energy facilities in Qatar and Iran, with President Trump threatening to 'massively blow-up' Iran's South Pars gas field if Qatar is attacked again

Energy markets surged after Israel targeted Iran's South Pars natural gas field and Iran retaliated against facilities in Qatar, with Brent crude rising and European gas prices soaring 25%. The Federal Reserve held rates steady but signaled a hawkish stance, removing expectations for 2026 rate cuts as the energy shock threatens to elevate inflation. Global stocks declined while the dollar strengthened, with central banks in a wait-and-see mode regarding the conflict's economic impact.

• European natural gas prices jumped 107% since late February, with WTI crude trading around $97 per barrel following attacks on major Gulf energy infrastructure including Qatar's Ras Laffan complex
• The Fed lifted its full-year inflation forecast with U.S. producer prices rising 3.4% in February, well above consensus, while futures markets no longer price in any 2026 rate cuts
• Asian equities fell sharply with Japan's Nikkei down over 3% and South Korea's KOSPI losing 2.8%, while the ECB and Bank of England decisions are awaited amid uncertainty over conflict duration and potential U.S. ground troop deployment

U.S. stock futures fell on March 19, 2026, as Brent crude surged to $115/barrel following Iran's attack on Middle East energy facilities, reigniting inflation concerns. The Federal Reserve maintained its cautious stance on rate cuts, with Chair Jerome Powell warning of higher inflation ahead, prompting major banks to push back rate cut forecasts to September or later.

• Brent crude hit $115/barrel after Iran attacked energy facilities in retaliation for Israel's strike on its South Pars gas field, reviving inflation worries
• Morgan Stanley joined Goldman Sachs and Barclays in delaying rate cut forecasts to September from June; traders now expect no cuts until mid-2027
• Micron Technology shares fell 5.9% despite strong earnings as higher spending plans drew scrutiny; precious metal miners dropped 6-9% on elevated rate expectations

The Swiss National Bank held its policy rate at 0% on March 19 amid heightened Middle East conflict that drove up the Swiss franc and global oil prices, creating uncertainty for inflation. The SNB signaled increased willingness to intervene in foreign exchange markets to prevent excessive franc appreciation that could threaten price stability.

• SNB maintained its 0% policy rate, the lowest among major central banks, in line with analyst expectations
• The decision follows the U.S. Federal Reserve's hold amid 'unusually high uncertainty' from the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran
• SNB increased its willingness to intervene in FX markets to counter rapid franc appreciation, which briefly weakened after the announcement before recovering to 0.9082 vs euro and 0.793 vs dollar

Lamborghini reported weaker 2025 earnings despite record revenue of 3.2 billion euros, as operating income fell from 835 million to 768 million euros. The Italian luxury carmaker's profits were hit by U.S. tariffs in its biggest market, currency fluctuations, and costs from cancelling its first fully electric vehicle planned for 2030 due to weak EV demand.

• Operating margin declined to 24% from 27% in 2024, with deliveries reaching a record 10,747 cars and revenue up 3.3%
• The company cancelled its 2030 EV sports car plans, citing 'resistance to EVs has increased significantly worldwide' and customer experiences not meeting expectations, opting instead for a plug-in hybrid model called Lanzador
• U.S. tariffs impacted both sales and margins, with Lamborghini raising prices but not enough to offset tariff rates, and ruling out further price increases in 2026

European stock markets are expected to open sharply lower on Thursday following a major escalation in the Iran conflict, with strikes on Iranian and Qatari energy infrastructure raising fears of economic stagflation. Major European indices are forecast to drop between 0.9% and 1.6% at the open, while multiple European central banks are expected to hold rates steady amid uncertainty over the war's economic impact.

• Israel struck Iran's South Pars gas field, prompting retaliatory attacks on Qatar's LNG terminal; President Trump threatened to 'massively blow up' South Pars if Iran continues targeting Qatari energy facilities
• European Central Bank, Bank of England, Riksbank and Swiss National Bank are all widely expected to hold rates steady as they assess the war's impact on growth and inflation
• U.S. markets dropped to fresh 2026 lows amid growing fears that the Iran conflict could push the economy toward stagflation - a period of lower growth combined with higher inflation

The Bank of Japan held interest rates steady at 0.75% as expected, but warned that the Iran conflict poses upside inflation risks due to rising crude oil prices. The decision comes as Japan, which imports 95% of its energy from the Middle East, monitors geopolitical risks alongside crucial spring wage negotiations that will influence future rate decisions.

• Eight of nine BOJ board members voted to keep rates unchanged, with inflation temporarily expected below 2% but facing upward pressure from Middle East conflict and rising crude prices
• Japan's headline inflation fell to below 2% in January for the first time in 45 months, while real wages climbed 1.4% year-over-year after declining throughout 2025
• Major Japanese companies have accepted union pay-hike demands exceeding 5% for the third consecutive year, the first such streak since 1989-1991, with official results due March 23

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% in its latest meeting, marking the second consecutive pause after three rate cuts in late 2024. The Fed's updated projections show only one 25 basis point cut expected for the remainder of 2026 and one in 2027, unchanged from December despite rising inflation forecasts. Market expectations have shifted dramatically, with an 89.2% probability that rates will remain unchanged through June and over 51% odds of no cuts through year-end.

• The Fed raised its PCE inflation forecast to 2.7% for year-end 2026 (up from 2.4% in December), well above the 2% target, while core PCE was also revised up to 2.7% from 2.5%
• Chair Jerome Powell stated any rate cut is conditional on seeing progress on inflation, particularly expecting tariff-related inflation to decline in mid-2026 after an initial spike
• Market pricing has reversed sharply: probability of rates remaining unchanged through June jumped from 37.8% last month to 89.2% currently, with markets now seeing a 3.8% chance of a rate hike

The SEC approved Nasdaq's proposal to allow certain stocks to be traded and settled in tokenized form using blockchain technology. Initially, tokenized trading will be limited to Russell 1000 stocks and ETFs tracking major benchmarks like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. This marks a significant step toward integrating blockchain-based settlements into mainstream U.S. equity markets.

• Nasdaq originally filed the proposal with the SEC in September to amend rules allowing listed stocks and ETPs to trade in either traditional or tokenized form on its main market
• Eligible securities are initially restricted to Russell 1000 Index stocks and ETFs tracking the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 benchmarks
• Rival exchange operator ICE has also developed a tokenized securities trading platform and is seeking regulatory approval from the NYSE parent

The European Central Bank is expected to hold interest rates at 2% on March 19 but signal readiness to raise them if the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran causes sustained inflation. Oil and gas prices have surged since attacks began, with markets now pricing in two rate hikes by December and inflation climbing above 3%. The ECB, scarred by its 'transitory' misjudgment during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine energy crisis, faces pressure to act more quickly this time despite textbook guidance to look past temporary supply shocks.

• Financial markets expect euro zone inflation to exceed 3% over the next year and only slowly return to the ECB's 2% target over four years, with traders pricing in two rate hikes by December.
• Economists at Barclays estimate the ECB would raise rates if Brent crude settles around $100 per barrel (current levels) and natural gas reaches 70 euros per megawatt-hour, about 15 euros above recent prices.
• The ECB will publish scenario analyses alongside quarterly forecasts on Thursday, outlining economic outcomes if the Iran conflict ends quickly versus if it becomes prolonged, though projections won't fully reflect recent energy price impacts.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell stated Wednesday that it's too early to determine the economic impact of the ongoing Iran conflict, though he acknowledged that higher energy prices will likely push up near-term inflation. The Fed voted 11-1 to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.5%-3.75%, with uncertainty around the Middle East crisis contributing to the decision to hold steady.

• Rising tensions in the Middle East have pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel for the first time since 2022, with diesel and gas prices starting to climb, particularly affecting freight and industrial costs
• The Fed maintained its benchmark rate at 3.5%-3.75% following three quarter-point cuts in late 2024, with Fed Governor Stephen Miran as the sole dissenter favoring a 25-basis-point cut
• The timing presents political challenges for President Trump, who campaigned on lowering costs for Americans but now faces potential inflation pressure from higher energy prices driven by the Iran conflict

Several major companies are hosting Analyst Days in late March and early April 2026, offering investors insights into AI infrastructure spending, energy trends, consumer demand, and economic activity. Key events include Generac, Quanta Services, Constellation Energy, Hershey, and FedEx presentations that will detail long-term strategies and financial targets. These voluntary corporate events aim to showcase growth initiatives and could set the tone for the upcoming Q1 earnings season.

• Generac, Quanta Services, and Constellation Energy Analyst Days (March 25-31) will focus on AI data center infrastructure and power generation, with Quanta reporting a record $44 billion backlog and 20% adjusted EPS growth expected in 2026
• Hershey's March 31 Investor Day highlights consumer trends, with the company projecting up to 400 basis points of gross-margin recovery and announcing a recent dividend hike while the stock is up 21% year-to-date
• FedEx's April 8 event follows its fiscal Q3 earnings and serves as a macro bellwether for economic activity, with the company facing headwinds from tariff disputes and geopolitical disruptions in the Middle East