Probability of more hikes should be higher, says FedWatch's Ben Emons

• Market probability for an October Fed rate hike (17.2%) is too low; the meeting is 'more live'.
• Fed will likely need to implement one or two more rate hikes due to persistent inflationary pressures.
• Midterms are not a direct factor for the Fed; they are waiting for more real-time data for December's decision.
• Acknowledges the risk of 'stallflation' (slowing economy with high inflation) if current trends continue.

Ben Emons argues that the market is underpricing the probability of further Fed rate hikes, suggesting the October meeting is 'more live' and one or two more hikes are likely needed due to persistent inflation. He believes the Fed is waiting for more real-time data for December's decision, not midterms. He also acknowledges the risk of 'stallflation' if economic growth slows while inflation remains high.