We're Back to Normal Rates, Says Ed Yardeni

Bloomberg Markets and Finance | October 13, 2026 at 06:45 PM UTC
Bullish 90% Confidence
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Key Points

  • Current interest rates are seen as a return to 'normal' (4-5%) after an abnormal period, with US nominal GDP growth at 6.3% supporting current bond yields.
  • The US economy and stock market have shown remarkable resilience despite shocks and political noise, with an 'earnings boom' and strong revenues.
  • China faces deflation, falling home prices, and an 'out of control' credit system, contrasting with the US's robust performance.

AI Summary

Ed Yardeni argues that current interest rates are 'normal for longer' rather than 'higher for longer,' reflecting a return to pre-Great Financial Crisis levels. He highlights the remarkable resilience of the US and global economies despite various shocks, driven by strong nominal GDP growth and an 'earnings boom.' However, he expresses concern about China's economy, citing deflationary pressures and an 'out of control' credit system.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 90%
Consensus Bullish 90%