AI doomsday warnings unlikely to slow IPOs, but questions linger

• Anthropic may seek a $2 trillion valuation in an IPO as early as October 2026, while OpenAI is targeting at least $1.2 trillion valuation before going public in 2027
• Jacob Coxon resigned from Anthropic warning about AI dangers, with support from colleagues citing small probability of humanity's extinction, though Anthropic CEO called for slower AI development without addressing IPO plans
• Major tech investors including Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Nvidia hold significant stakes in these AI labs, with venture capitalists suggesting the market will price safety risks appropriately, citing SpaceX's $85 billion IPO as precedent

Summary

Key Companies and IPO Timeline:

AI firm Anthropic is expected to proceed with a blockbuster IPO later in 2026, potentially as early as October, beating rival OpenAI to public markets. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman announced a delay until 2027, citing safety concerns as an "ill-advised moment."

Valuation Figures:

• OpenAI is seeking at least $1.2 trillion valuation in pre-IPO funding
• Anthropic targets a potential $2 trillion IPO valuation
• For context, SpaceX raised $85 billion in its June IPO but has lost approximately 25% of value, dropping from a $202 peak

Safety Concerns:

Internal tensions emerged after Jacob Coxon resigned from Anthropic, warning the industry was "gambling with our lives." Former colleagues echoed concerns about AI's existential risks. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei called for slower AI development but made no mention of postponing the IPO.

Market Implications:

Major tech investors including Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Nvidia hold significant stakes in these AI companies. The IPO outcomes will significantly impact the broader U.S. economy given its increasing dependence on AI development. Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya warned investors may "demand an enormous discount" if safety risks prove credible, while Altimeter Capital's Brad Gerstner expressed confidence that "the market knows how to price risk."

Regulatory Questions:

Both companies must disclose known business risks to the SEC before going public. It remains unclear whether theoretical doomsday scenarios will be addressed in securities filings. Both firms maintain that safety concerns won't compromise their business models or IPO prospects.