Trump warns Tehran over Pickaxe Mountain activity; U.S.-Iran exchange attacks on ships near Hormuz

• CSIS satellite analysis shows more road activity at Pickaxe Mountain in 2026 than any point in the site's history, with construction shifting from excavation to probable internal development just 2 kilometers from the previously damaged Natanz uranium facility
• Iran attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz and fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. base in Jordan, while U.S. forces destroyed five Iranian oil tankers in response to attacks on Navy warships
• Oil prices crossed $100 per barrel (Brent at $100.40, WTI at $95.51) as the tanker attacks threaten supply through the Strait of Hormuz; Trump stated the war likely won't end until after November midterm elections

Summary

Key Developments:

President Trump warned Iran against activity at Pickaxe Mountain, a suspected nuclear site located two kilometers from Iran's damaged Natanz uranium enrichment facility. Satellite imagery analyzed by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) revealed unprecedented construction activity at the site in 2026, with operations shifting from excavation to probable internal construction and exterior reinforcement.

Military Escalation:

Tensions have intensified near the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway handling approximately 20% of global oil traffic. Iran reported firing ballistic missiles at a U.S. military base in Jordan and attacking 10 ships near the strait. The U.S. previously destroyed five Iranian oil tankers in June 2025 after Iranian forces targeted a U.S. Navy warship. U.S. forces also struck three Iranian nuclear sites (Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan) in June 2025, significantly hampering Tehran's nuclear capabilities.

Market Impact:

Energy markets are on high alert due to escalating conflicts. Brent crude futures reached $100.40 per barrel, while WTI crude traded at $95.51, marking the first time oil exceeded $100 since July. Additional concerns stem from intensified fighting between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen, raising fears of further supply disruptions.

Political Context:

Trump stated the U.S.-Iran conflict would likely continue until after November's midterm elections, acknowledging potential short-term economic pain for American consumers but emphasizing the priority of preventing Iran from developing nuclear weapons. Iran continues to deny seeking nuclear weapons capabilities, though CSIS described the construction activity near Natanz as "suspicious."