Oil Price Forecast: Brent Eyes $100 After Iran Strikes U.S. Bases in Kuwait

• WTI crude broke triangle pattern at $87 and is targeting $97 if it clears resistance at $93.80, with key support now at the $87-88 level
• Brent crude is testing $99.25 near the $100 resistance zone, with a breakout potentially driving prices toward $115-120, though both benchmarks may face short-term corrections after recent gains
• Escalating U.S.-Iran conflict raises risks to Gulf oil installations and Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, but growing political opposition and administration comments suggest potential de-escalation could remove the geopolitical premium

Summary

Geopolitical Developments:

Iran launched missile and drone strikes on U.S. bases in Kuwait on September 3, 2026, escalating regional tensions following earlier U.S. attacks against Iran and Iranian responses targeting Jordan and Bahrain. These developments risk disrupting oil installations, shipping lanes, and flows through the Strait of Hormuz, supporting a geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.

Key Price Levels and Targets:

• WTI Crude: Currently trading at $90.50 (-0.75%), having broken triangle pattern resistance at $87. Key resistance at $92.50-$93.80; a break above could target $97 short-term. Support at $87-$88 region.

• Brent Crude: Trading near $99.25, approaching critical $100-$102 resistance zone. A breakout above $102 could drive prices toward $115-$120. Support established at $95; downside risk if $80 level breaks.

Technical Indicators:

Both benchmarks show bullish structure, trading above 50-day and 200-day SMAs. RSI remains above midline, though approaching overbought territory on shorter timeframes, suggesting potential near-term correction.

Market Outlook:

While tensions support upward momentum, uncertainty remains. President Trump indicated the conflict may not last long, and political pressure for de-escalation exists. However, until concrete ceasefire signs emerge, volatility is expected to persist. Analysts maintain bullish outlook as long as WTI and Brent hold above $80.

Sectors: Energy, crude oil markets

Risk Factors: Supply disruption potential, Strait of Hormuz chokepoint, geopolitical escalation versus ceasefire prospects