Natural Gas and Oil Forecast: U.S.-Iran Strikes Tighten Hormuz Supply as WTI Surges

• Iranian forces launched missiles and drones at U.S. positions in Jordan, Iraq, and Bahrain, prompting U.S. strikes on Iranian air defense and maritime infrastructure, with Iran's Revolutionary Guard signaling further trade disruptions.
• Only four vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday versus the 10-day average of 13, while two Saudi supertankers were hit by projectiles, highlighting immediate supply risks.
• Natural gas markets remained less constrained despite geopolitical tensions, with U.S. LNG exports averaging 17.4 Bcf/d in H1 2026, up 23% year-over-year, though Qatari supply disruptions tightened global LNG availability.

Market Summary: U.S.-Iran Conflict Drives Oil Surge, Natural Gas Supported

Key Developments

Renewed military conflict between the U.S. and Iran on September 2, 2026, has significantly tightened global oil markets. U.S. forces struck Iranian air defense, maritime, and communication systems, while Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on U.S. positions in Jordan, Iraq, and Bahrain.

Critical Supply Disruptions

The Strait of Hormuz, which handles approximately 20% of global crude oil trade, faces severe disruption. Daily vessel traffic plummeted to just 4 ships on Tuesday versus the 10-day average of 13, according to Kpler data. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps signaled further trade disruptions ahead. Two Saudi supertankers were struck by projectiles, while shipping through Bab el-Mandeb also declined.

Market Impact

• WTI Crude: Surged 4.82% to $90.61, breaking above $87.75 resistance with potential targets at $92.67-$97.95
• Brent Crude: Jumped 5.07% to $95.35, testing resistance at $96.95
• Natural Gas: Rose 0.48% to $2.94, holding above $2.90 support

U.S. crude inventories drew 2.6 million barrels, further tightening domestic supply before the next EIA report.

Natural Gas Outlook

LNG exports averaged 17.4 Bcf/d in H1 2026, up 23% year-over-year. Capacity expansion continues at Plaquemines, Corpus Christi Stage 3, and Golden Pass facilities. The EIA projects LNG exports at 17.3 Bcf/d for H2 2026, rising further in 2027. Hormuz disruptions have reduced Qatari supply, intensifying competition for spot cargoes among Asian buyers.

Technical indicators show RSI levels above 70 for both WTI and Brent, suggesting strong momentum but potential near-term pullback risks.