Spot gold price at $4,366/oz after ISM Manufacturing PMI falls to 54.6
Key Points
- ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6 in August from 55.6 in July, missing consensus forecast of 55.3, indicating slowing momentum in the manufacturing sector
- New Orders Index dropped 3 percentage points to 53.7%, while Employment fell 1.6 points to 51.2%, and Backlog of Orders declined 3.2 points to 51.8%
- Prices Index held steady at an elevated 71.1% for the second consecutive month, while Supplier Deliveries increased 0.4 points, indicating continued supply chain slowdown
AI Summary
Summary
Market Movement:
Spot gold traded at $4,366.69 per ounce, down 1.86% on the day, after recovering from a session low of $4,326.27 reached shortly after 9:00 AM ET. Prices rebounded following the 10:00 AM ET economic data release.
Key Economic Data:
The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing PMI fell to 54.6 in August from 55.6 in July, missing consensus expectations of 55.3. Despite the decline, the manufacturing sector remained in expansion territory (above 50).
Component Details:
- New Orders Index: Declined to 53.7% from 56.7% (down 3 percentage points)
- Production Index: Slipped marginally to 58.3% from 58.5% (down 0.2 percentage points)
- Prices Index: Held steady at 71.1%, matching July's elevated level
- Backlog of Orders: Fell to 51.8% from 55% (down 3.2 percentage points)
- Employment Index: Decreased to 51.2% from 52.8% (down 1.6 percentage points)
- Supplier Deliveries: Rose 0.4 percentage points, the only improving subindex
Market Implications:
ISM Chair Susan Spence noted that while manufacturing activity continues expanding, it "lost ground in a number of key measures," particularly New Orders, Backlog, and Imports. The Supplier Deliveries increase indicates ongoing supply chain slowdowns. The weaker-than-expected manufacturing data initially pressured gold prices lower but subsequently supported a modest recovery, suggesting investors view the softer economic indicators as potentially beneficial for precious metals.
Model Analysis Breakdown
| Model | Sentiment | Confidence |
|---|---|---|
| GPT-5-mini | Neutral | 78% |
| Claude 4.5 Haiku | Bullish | 75% |
| Gemini 2.5 Flash | Bullish | 85% |
| Consensus | Bullish | 79% |