Oil Price Forecast: Brent Eyes $100 as U.S.-Iran Strikes Resumes

• WTI must break above $87 resistance to confirm bullish momentum toward targets of $93.80 and $97, with technical indicators showing positive momentum above key moving averages
• Brent crude is supported above $80 and could push toward $100, with potential to reach $120 if it breaks through that level
• U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has dropped to 286.6 million barrels and inventories are at low levels, removing buffers that could absorb supply shocks, though a ceasefire could eliminate the risk premium

Summary

Key Development: Oil prices surged on September 1, 2026, following renewed U.S.-Iran military conflict, with Brent crude climbing to $93.60 per barrel (+1.20%) and WTI reaching $87 (+1.79%). The escalation has raised significant concerns about potential supply disruptions.

Critical Supply Risk: The Strait of Hormuz, which previously transported approximately 20% of global oil supplies, faces heightened risk of closure or disruption. Oil flows through the waterway remain well below pre-conflict levels, leaving the market vulnerable to further shocks.

Supply Constraints: The market lacks traditional buffers to absorb disruptions. U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve has declined to 286.6 million barrels, while domestic inventories approach critically low levels. Additional pressure may come from seasonal demand increases in China.

Technical Analysis:

• WTI: Must break above $87 resistance to target $93.80 and $97. Price shows bullish structure above 50- and 200-day moving averages within a triangle pattern.
• Brent: Trading above key $80 support level, eyeing the psychologically significant $100 mark. A break above $100 could push prices toward $120.

Market Outlook: The short-term outlook remains bullish as geopolitical tensions support prices. Both crude benchmarks show positive technical momentum with RSI indicators above midline levels. However, analysts warn that a potential ceasefire or Strait of Hormuz reopening could remove the risk premium and trigger price declines.

Downside Risk: Any diplomatic resolution or de-escalation would likely eliminate the current geopolitical premium from oil prices.