Swiss bankers expect SNB to keep rates on hold in 2026 and 2027

• All surveyed bankers expect the SNB to hold rates at 0% for the rest of 2026, while 60% see this policy continuing through 2027
• Markets are pricing in a 97% probability of no rate change at the September 24 policy meeting, with the first expected hike (25 basis points to 0.25%) anticipated in June
• Among the 40% expecting rate increases in 2027, most forecast a modest 0.25% rate, though one respondent predicts a 0.5% policy rate

Summary: Swiss National Bank Rate Outlook Survey

A Swiss Bankers Association survey reveals strong consensus that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will maintain its key interest rate at 0% through 2026 and likely into 2027.

Key Findings:

• 100% of surveyed bankers expect the SNB to hold rates at 0% for the remainder of 2026
• 60% anticipate rates will remain unchanged through 2027
• 40% forecast a rate hike in 2027, with most predicting a modest increase to 0.25% (one respondent expects 0.5%)

Market Implications:

The SNB's next monetary policy announcement is scheduled for September 24, 2026, with markets pricing in a 97% probability of no change. Markets anticipate the first rate adjustment will occur in June 2027, likely a 25 basis point increase to 0.25%.

Context:

The survey reflects expectations of continued accommodative monetary policy from Switzerland's central bank, suggesting a cautious approach to normalization amid economic conditions. The dovish stance indicates bankers see limited inflationary pressures or economic conditions warranting immediate tightening.

The overwhelming consensus for near-term stability, combined with modest expectations for eventual gradual tightening, suggests Switzerland's monetary policy will remain supportive of economic activity well into 2027. This contrasts with more aggressive tightening cycles seen in other jurisdictions and may have implications for the Swiss franc's relative value and Swiss asset valuations.

For investors, this signals a prolonged period of low borrowing costs in Switzerland, potentially supporting equity valuations and real estate markets while keeping pressure on traditional fixed-income returns.