Economists want Warsh to share more on his view of the economy at Jackson Hole, says CNBC survey

• Warsh has adopted a minimal communication approach, declining to offer economic views or policy guidance to get an 'unfiltered' market view, breaking from predecessor practices
• Survey respondents are divided on the rate outlook: 53% expect rate hikes over the next year, 30% see cuts, and 16% forecast no change, with 40% probability of a September hike in futures markets
• Treasury's efforts to tamp down long-term yields through increased purchases of long-dated securities are viewed as ineffective, with the 10-year yield forecast to remain between 4.60% and 4.70% through end of next year

Summary: Economists Seek Greater Transparency from Fed Chair Warsh at Jackson Hole

A special CNBC Fed Survey reveals significant demand for more communication from Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh ahead of his first keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium. Among 31 economists, strategists, and investors surveyed, 80% want Warsh to provide more insight into his economic views, though respondents are evenly split (48%-48%) on whether he should specifically address rate policy.

Key Findings:

Fed Communications: Since taking office, Warsh has departed from predecessors by withholding economic guidance, preferring "unfiltered" market signals. Survey respondents are divided on his Friday speech: 45% expect no rate guidance, 32% anticipate hawkish commentary, and 19% predict a neutral stance. Despite this, 65% agree the Fed benefits from reduced communication.

Treasury Intervention Skepticism: 77% believe Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's efforts to reduce bond yields through increased purchases of long-dated securities will fail. Economists describe the actions as "a band-aid" or "sign of panic." The 10-year Treasury yield is forecast to remain between 4.60%-4.70% through end-2027.

Rate Outlook: Respondents are unusually divided: 53% expect rate hikes over the next year, 30% foresee cuts, and 16% predict no change. Fed funds futures show 40% probability of a September hike, rising to 70% by December. The FOMC's July meeting saw a 9-3 vote to hold rates steady.

Economic Projections: Inflation is expected to decline from 3.4% (2026) to 2.6% (2027), unemployment should stabilize around 4.3%, and GDP growth will hover above 2%.

Economists attribute rising bond yields to global debt supply (37%), higher inflation expectations (28%), increased Fed rate expectations (21%), and improved growth outlook (19%).