Kalshi traders see low likelihood of major crypto bill becoming law this year

• Kalshi traders see less than 25% likelihood the Clarity Act becomes law by end of 2025, and less than 50% chance of implementation by April 2027, despite White House pressure
• Bitcoin has surged over 20% in the past week, driven by Trump's push for Congress to pass 'a fair version of the Clarity Act'
• CFTC Chairman Michael Selig stated the agency will use existing authorities to establish a crypto regime if the bill stalls due to 'Democrat obstruction'

Summary: Kalshi Traders Skeptical on Crypto Clarity Act Passage

Key Legislation: The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, which passed the House with bipartisan support in July 2025, faces uncertain prospects in the Senate with a procedural vote scheduled for September 15.

Market Sentiment: Kalshi prediction market traders assign less than 25% probability the bill becomes law by year-end 2026, and below 50% odds for implementation by April 2027, despite strong White House backing.

Regulatory Framework: The Clarity Act would establish clear jurisdictional boundaries between the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) for overseeing digital commodities. Currently, both agencies have issued guidance but lack explicit regulatory boundaries for crypto assets.

Political Landscape: President Trump actively lobbied Congress last week to pass "a fair version of the Clarity Act." The White House has been pressuring lawmakers to advance the legislation, though Democratic opposition appears to be a key obstacle.

Market Impact: Bitcoin surged over 20% in the past week, driven by Trump's advocacy for the bill and positive regulatory momentum.

Contingency Plan: CFTC Chairman Michael Selig indicated at the agency's first meeting last Thursday that if the bill stalls due to "Democrat obstruction," the CFTC will use existing authorities to independently establish a regulatory regime for crypto markets. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins joined Selig at recent meetings with Trump and crypto industry leaders.

Industry Implications: The outcome will significantly impact regulatory clarity for major crypto firms including Coinbase, Ripple, and institutional investors like Andreessen Horowitz.

*Note: CNBC has a commercial relationship with Kalshi involving customer acquisition and minority investment.*