Trump targets Iran's trade lifelines — here are the countries most exposed

• China is Iran's largest trading partner, buying about 90% of Iranian oil exports (roughly $31.2 billion in unreported crude in 2025), often rebranded as Malaysian or Indonesian crude to avoid sanctions.
• The UAE had bilateral trade of around $28 billion with Iran in 2024, serving as a major financial hub, though it suspended trade last week after Iran fired ballistic missiles toward Emirati territory.
• Iraq depends heavily on Iranian energy, with a five-year contract for up to 660 billion cubic feet of natural gas annually and Iranian electricity accounting for over 30% of Iraq's generation in 2023.

Summary: Trump Targets Iran's Trade Lifelines

The Trump administration announced a strategy to isolate Iran from the global economy, threatening to cut off any entity laundering money for Iran from the U.S. dollar system. This move aims to sever Tehran's economic lifeline after nearly six months of war.

Key Trading Partners and Exposure:

China remains Iran's largest trading partner, accounting for approximately 90% of Iranian oil exports. Bilateral trade reached $9.96 billion in 2025, with an additional unreported $31.2 billion in crude oil exports. Independent Chinese refiners purchase Iranian oil, often rebranded as Malaysian or Indonesian crude and settled outside the dollar system. Analysts expect China to "quietly step up compliance" to protect dollar access and U.S. market entry.

United Arab Emirates recorded roughly $28 billion in bilateral trade with Iran in 2024, serving as Iran's largest import source (30%+) and third-largest export destination (12%). However, the UAE recently suspended all trade and financial transactions with Iran following ballistic missile attacks targeting Emirati territory.

Turkey maintains a $5.5 billion trade relationship, primarily importing Iranian natural gas under a 25-year supply contract while exporting machinery, chemicals, and agricultural products.

Iraq relies heavily on Iranian energy, with trade exceeding $10 billion in 2025. Iran supplies nearly 660 billion cubic feet of natural gas annually and accounts for over 30% of Iraq's electricity generation.

India's bilateral trade has declined to $1.6 billion (year ending March 2026) from $2.3 billion in 2023, though it recently resumed oil imports after a seven-year halt.

Market Implications:

The sanctions threaten to disrupt global energy markets and force major economies to choose between Iranian trade and U.S. dollar access, with significant implications for regional energy security and financial relationships.