India faces weakest monsoon in nearly two decades as El Nino strengthens

• September is expected to see severe impact with double-digit rainfall deficit, potentially damaging summer crops like cotton, soybean, corn and pulses while depleting soil moisture for winter crops
• The seasonal deficit has nearly doubled from the 8% initially projected by the India Meteorological Department, with the season showing 13% less rainfall overall since June 1
• El Nino is strengthening and likely to intensify further in September, historically causing below-average rainfall in India and sometimes leading to severe droughts and grain export restrictions

Summary: India Faces Weakest Monsoon in Nearly Two Decades

India is experiencing its worst monsoon season since 2009, with rainfall expected to end approximately 15% below the long-term average for the June-September period, according to senior India Meteorological Department (IMD) sources. This represents nearly double the initially projected 8% deficit.

Key Weather Data:

• Overall seasonal deficit: 15% below average (85% of normal rainfall)
• June rainfall: 35.4% below average
• July rainfall: 1% surplus (brief recovery)
• August rainfall: 15% below average
• September outlook: Expected double-digit deficit

Primary Cause:

The strengthening El Niño weather pattern is suppressing rainfall across most of India, with intensification expected in September. El Niño typically brings drier conditions to Southeast Asia and has historically caused below-average rainfall and severe droughts in India.

Agricultural Impact:

The weak monsoon threatens summer-sown crops including cotton, soybean, corn, and pulses, particularly during the critical September crop-maturing period. Reduced soil moisture will also affect winter-sown crops such as wheat and rapeseed. The monsoon provides approximately 70% of India's annual rainfall.

Economic Implications:

• Potential reduction in crop yields and output
• Upward pressure on food prices
• Reduced rural incomes in the world's fifth-largest economy
• Possible export restrictions on grains, as implemented during previous droughts

The monsoon may begin withdrawing from northwestern regions earlier than the typical September 17 start date unless new weather systems develop.