Kalshi traders think the bitcoin rally could end the year near current levels

• Bitcoin currently trades above $77,000, but Kalshi traders forecast year-end 2026 prices around $75,000 based on averaged contract positions, implying a slight decline from current levels
• The rally was fueled by Treasury action to halt a bond sell-off (relieving pressure on risk assets) and White House advocacy for the Clarity Act market structure proposal
• Trader sentiment has improved from pre-Wednesday forecasts that projected bitcoin ending the year around $66,000

Summary: Kalshi Traders Predict Bitcoin Rally to Plateau Near Current Levels

Key Development:

Bitcoin has surged to its highest levels since May 2026, but traders on prediction market platform Kalshi anticipate the cryptocurrency will end the year near current prices, doubting further significant gains.

Price Projections:

• Kalshi traders estimate bitcoin will close 2026 around $75,000 (based on averaged contract prices)
• Current trading level: above $77,000
• This represents a potential slight decline from present levels
• Previous forecast (before Wednesday): approximately $66,000 year-end price

Rally Catalysts:

Two major factors drove this week's surge:

1. U.S. Treasury intervention to halt a bond market sell-off, reducing pressure on risk assets
2. White House crypto summit where President Donald Trump, industry executives, and regulators pushed Congress to approve the Clarity Act market structure proposal

Market Mechanics:

Kalshi contracts allow traders to place "yes" or "no" bets on whether bitcoin will trade within various $5,000 ranges at midnight on January 1, 2027. Contracts settle using CF Benchmarks price data.

Market Implications:

The modest year-end forecast suggests traders remain cautious despite recent momentum, indicating skepticism that current gains are sustainable. The improved outlook from $66,000 to $75,000 reflects some optimism from regulatory developments and Treasury support, but overall sentiment remains conservative.

Disclosure: CNBC maintains a commercial relationship with Kalshi involving customer acquisition and minority investment.