More than 150 Polymarket wallets may have traded on military secrets, research finds

• ACDC identified 556 'Orca' wallets that quickly placed successful long-shot bets before disappearing, with 152 specifically targeting military markets
• Copycat trading by bots and 'Whales' amplified potential insider signals, including $300,000 in copycat wagers before U.S. strikes in Iran in June 2025
• The research comes amid increased regulatory scrutiny, including charges against a U.S. soldier accused of using classified information to bet $400,000 on Venezuela's Maduro removal

Summary

Key Findings:

The nonprofit Anti-Corruption Data Collective (ACDC) identified 556 suspicious "Orca" wallets on Polymarket that exhibited patterns suggesting insider trading on U.S. military information. Of these, 152 wallets specifically traded on military and defense markets, collectively earning $8 million with an exceptional 97.2% average win rate.

Trading Pattern:

These "Orca" wallets typically opened accounts, placed high-value "long-shot" bets (minimum $2,500 on outcomes with ≤35% odds) on niche military markets, then cashed out and disappeared. The analysis covered all settled markets through May 5.

National Security Concerns:

Research revealed that Orca trades attracted copycat bets from large "Whale" traders and automated bots, potentially amplifying insider signals. Before June 2025 U.S. strikes in Iran, an Orca bet triggered copycat wagers totaling $300,000. Analysts warn foreign intelligence agencies could exploit this publicly observable activity on Polymarket's blockchain-based platform.

Regulatory Context:

The findings intensify scrutiny of prediction markets following the January case of U.S. soldier Gannon Ken Van Dyke, charged with using classified information to make $400,000 betting on Venezuelan President Maduro's removal. Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty.

Company Response:

Polymarket (founded 2020) did not comment but previously stated it maintains strict controls, monitors suspicious activity, and has referred dozens of wallets to authorities. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, seeking jurisdiction over prediction markets, declined to comment.

Recommendations:

ACDC advocates for mandatory identity verification for traders, withholding payouts on suspicious trades pending investigation, and banning markets where non-public information provides actionable advantages.