U.S., Indian fuel exporters profiting from supply uncertainty during wars

• U.S. distillate fuel exports reached a record 1.9 million barrels per day in the week ended August 7, while global refining throughput fell to 89 million bpd in July, down 5 million bpd year-over-year.
• U.S. diesel margins hit a record high of over $102 per barrel on Monday, with some refined products fetching twice the value of feedstock crude, though diesel prices at pumps averaged $5.47 per gallon, nearly 50% higher than last year.
• Indian and U.S. refiners face competition primarily from China, which increased exports to 1.1 million tons in July from 240,860 tons in June, while Asian gasoline inventories are expected to remain below the five-year average through the rest of 2026.

Summary: U.S., Indian Fuel Exporters Profit from War-Driven Supply Disruptions

Key Development: Wars in the Middle East and Russia have disrupted global fuel supplies, creating a lucrative export opportunity for U.S. and Indian refiners during the Northern Hemisphere's peak summer driving season.

Major Players & Data:

• India: Export-focused refineries including Reliance and Nayara are operating at consistently high utilization rates, positioning India as "Asia's swing supplier"
• United States:
• Record distillate fuel exports of 1.9 million bpd (week ending August 7)
• Jet fuel exports at 443,000 bpd, approaching May's record of 455,000 bpd
• July clean petroleum products exports hit all-time high (Kpler data)
• China: Emerging competitor with exports jumping to 1.1 million tons in July from 240,860 tons in June

Market Impacts:

• Global refining throughput fell to 89 million bpd in July, down 5 million bpd year-over-year (IEA)
• U.S. diesel margins hit record $102/barrel on Monday following Middle East/Russia refinery attacks
• U.S. diesel prices averaged $5.47/gallon (up 50% YoY); gasoline at $4/gallon vs. $2.91 forecast
• Asian gasoline inventories projected to remain below five-year average through 2026 at ~197 million barrels
• U.S. gasoline stockpiles 6% below five-year seasonal average at 208.7 million barrels

Key Beneficiaries: Brazil doubled U.S. diesel imports to 196,000 bpd in July after Russia extended export ban to January 2027. Indonesia maintains firm import demand at 11-12 million barrels in August.

Risk Factor: U.S. refiners face political pressure from President Trump to lower domestic fuel prices ahead of November midterm elections, potentially limiting export margins.