About half of Venezuela oil output now goes to US, Under Secretary Haustveit says

Reuters | August 18, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC
Neutral 76% Confidence Majority Agreement
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Key Points

  • U.S. refiners built for Venezuelan crude are receiving more than 500,000 barrels per day, representing about half of Venezuela's total production of approximately 1.25 million bpd
  • PDVSA projects Venezuela's crude output will reach 1.245 million bpd by end of August, with total exports up 19.7% this year
  • Venezuela faces a natural gas deficit of 500 million cubic feet per day and is seeking to modernize refineries while domestic fuel output has increased 12.9% year-to-date

AI Summary

Summary: Venezuela Oil Exports to U.S. Reach 500,000+ bpd

Key Developments:

Approximately half of Venezuela's oil production is now flowing to the United States, with U.S. refiners receiving over 500,000 barrels per day (bpd) in recent months, according to U.S. Energy Under Secretary Kyle Haustveit. Venezuela's current production stands at roughly 1.25 million bpd.

Production Targets:

Jovanny Martinez, VP at Venezuela's state oil company PDVSA, confirmed that crude output is expected to reach 1.245 million bpd by end-August. Venezuelan exports have increased 19.7% year-to-date in 2025.

Supply Chain Dynamics:

U.S. refineries specifically designed to process Venezuela's heavy crude grades are the primary recipients of these exports. Martinez emphasized that the U.S. economy requires Venezuela's heavy oil, while Venezuela needs diluents to blend with its heavier grades—which should be developed domestically.

Domestic Energy Situation:

Venezuela's fuel production has increased 12.9% year-to-date, supplying 5.4% more fuel to the domestic market. However, the country faces infrastructure challenges:

  • Refineries require improvement, modernization, and expansion
  • Natural gas deficit of 500 million cubic feet per day

Market Implications:

The restoration of significant Venezuelan oil flows to the U.S. market provides supply stability for Gulf Coast refiners built for heavy crude processing. Haustveit's comments on respecting "sanctity of contracts" suggest improved bilateral energy relations. Martinez indicated Venezuela is pursuing energy sector reforms with focus on tangible development results.

This represents a substantial shift in U.S.-Venezuela energy relations, potentially impacting global heavy crude markets and Gulf Coast refinery operations.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 75%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bullish 75%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bullish 80%
Consensus Neutral 76%