Nasdaq futures crash over 300 points: 5 things to know before Wall Street opens

Invezz | August 18, 2026 at 12:19 PM UTC
Bearish 88% Confidence Unanimous Agreement
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Key Points

  • The 30-year Treasury yield hit its highest level since 2007, driven by heavy AI infrastructure borrowing, rising US deficits, and policy uncertainty, effectively tightening financial conditions without Fed action
  • Brent crude topped $91 after US-Iran ceasefire talks failed, threatening to reverse recent inflation improvements through higher fuel and transport costs
  • Home Depot beat Q2 estimates with sales of $47.86 billion (vs $47.27 billion expected) and comparable sales up 1.3%, providing an early positive signal on consumer spending ahead of Walmart's Thursday report

AI Summary

Market Summary: Nasdaq Futures Plunge on Yield Surge and Oil Rally

Key Market Movements:

US stock futures declined sharply Tuesday morning, with Nasdaq 100 futures down 1.17%, S&P 500 futures falling 0.55%, and Dow futures slipping 0.15% as of 4:50 AM ET. The S&P 500 had already dropped 0.52% Monday.

Bond Market Shock:

The 30-year Treasury yield surged to its highest level since 2007, while the 10-year climbed to 4.739%. This 19-year high is attributed to heavy AI infrastructure borrowing by hyperscalers, rising US deficits, and policy uncertainty. The yield spike effectively tightens financial conditions without additional Federal Reserve action.

Technology Sector Hammered:

Rate-sensitive tech and semiconductor stocks bore the brunt of selling. Micron, Marvell, AMD, and Intel dropped 2.6%-4.8% in premarket trading. SanDisk and Western Digital plunged over 5%. Higher yields compress growth stock valuations by reducing the present value of future profits and increasing AI build-out financing costs.

Energy Market Concerns:

Brent crude rose above $91 per barrel after US-Iran ceasefire talks failed and Tehran signaled a more aggressive military stance. Oil above $90 threatens to reignite inflation concerns, particularly affecting fuel and transport costs.

Bright Spot - Home Depot:

Home Depot exceeded expectations with Q2 sales of $47.86 billion versus $47.27 billion expected, and adjusted earnings of $4.92 per share. US comparable sales rose 1.3%, driven by repair project demand. The retailer maintained its annual outlook despite housing market headwinds.

Upcoming Catalysts:

Fed July meeting minutes release Wednesday, Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole next week, Nvidia earnings report pending, and Walmart reports Thursday—all critical tests for market direction.

Model Analysis Breakdown

Model Sentiment Confidence
GPT-5-mini Bearish 88%
Claude 4.5 Haiku Bearish 88%
Gemini 2.5 Flash Bearish 90%
Consensus Bearish 88%