Crude Oil Price Forecast: Iran Tensions Push Brent Toward $100

• Strait of Hormuz traffic collapsed to just three boats on Sunday versus 130 before tensions escalated, creating delivery delays and increasing freight and insurance costs
• Technical analysis shows WTI could reach $93.80 with a break above $87, while Brent may advance to $125 if it breaks above the $100 level
• Potential resumption of Chinese crude imports, which recently dropped 4-5 million bpd, could add further upward pressure on oil prices if buyers return at current elevated levels

Summary

Key Developments:

Crude oil prices surged on August 18, 2026, driven by escalating U.S.-Iran tensions after both nations ruled out extending their June agreement. WTI crude gained over 3% to close at $84.96 per barrel, while Brent crude rose 2.5% to $92.81. Iran warned of potential offensive actions if diplomatic efforts fail, raising supply disruption concerns.

Critical Supply Disruption:

The Strait of Hormuz has become severely restricted, with only three vessels crossing on Sunday compared to the normal 130 pre-conflict. This bottleneck is delaying oil deliveries and driving up freight charges and insurance costs, supporting elevated price levels despite steady global production.

China Factor:

Chinese crude imports have recently declined by 4-5 million barrels per day. However, analysts warn that if Chinese refiners resume purchasing at current elevated prices amid the Hormuz chokepoint, Brent could reach $100 per barrel.

Technical Outlook:

• WTI: Displaying constructive price action with rounding cup patterns. A break above $87 could target $93.80, with further resistance at $105. Support established at $66.
• Brent: Trading above 50- and 200-day SMAs with strong momentum. Breaking $100 could push prices toward $125, supported by bullish weekly candle formations above $80.

Market Implications:

Oil prices are expected to remain elevated in the near term due to geopolitical tensions and supply constraints. However, analysts caution that easing tensions or restored shipping activity could slow the rally.