Wall Street eyes retail earnings as futures drift ahead of the bell

• Dow futures fell 0.2%, S&P 500 rose 0.1% after a third consecutive weekly gain, and Nasdaq-100 gained 0.5%
• Traders have reduced the probability of a September Fed rate hike at Jackson Hole to less than one-third amid mixed inflation and jobs data
• Brent crude oil rose to $89 per barrel, while 10- and 30-year Treasury yields both increased 5 basis points on Friday

Market Summary: Wall Street Eyes Retail Earnings

Market Overview:

US stock futures showed mixed performance on August 17, 2026, with the Dow futures down 0.2%, S&P 500 up 0.1% following a third consecutive weekly gain, and Nasdaq-100 rising 0.5%. Markets are navigating a quieter week for economic data while awaiting key retail earnings reports.

Key Companies and Sectors:

Major retailers take center stage this week, with earnings reports expected from Walmart, Target, Lowe's, and Home Depot. These results will provide critical insights into consumer spending patterns during the back-to-school shopping season and overall American consumer health.

Federal Reserve Outlook:

Market focus remains split between retail performance and Federal Reserve policy. Traders have reduced expectations for a September rate hike at the Jackson Hole gathering to below 33%, as recent inflation and employment data present mixed signals. Wednesday's Fed minutes release could provide additional clarity on policymaker thinking.

Commodities and Fixed Income:

Brent crude oil climbed to $89 per barrel amid ongoing Middle East tensions and US economic measures in the region. Bond markets showed movement, with both 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields rising 5 basis points on Friday, indicating shifting investor sentiment in fixed income markets.

Market Implications:

The combination of retail earnings and Fed policy uncertainty creates a pivotal moment for markets. Strong retail results could bolster economic confidence, while disappointing numbers may reinforce concerns about consumer spending weakness. The Fed's monetary policy stance will remain crucial for near-term market direction.